초록

Many observers have noted that relations between the United States and South Korea have become increasingly strained. In this article, to contribute to discussions about the future of the alliance we (1) describe the source of current tensions: the allies’ increasingly divergent strategic priorities with respect to China, and progress in North Korea’s nuclear and missile technology. Second, (2) we outline different ways to fix the problems in the alliance, by outlining alternative visions in addition to the status quo. We consider an enhanced alliance, the option of “boots off the ground,” and no alliance. None of these, we argue, addresses the key pressures on the alliance nor advances the allies’ key national security interests. We conclude that the best way forward is a fifth option, which is maintaining the alliance while South Korea acquires an independent nuclear capability.

키워드

ROK–U.S. alliance, Korean Peninsula, nuclear development, U.S.– China competition, DRPK

참고문헌(79)open

  1. [인터넷자료] Duyeon Kim / Washington and Seoul Must Heal Their Alliance / Foreign Affairs

  2. [인터넷자료] / America Wants South Korea to Pay Much More to Host American Troops / Economist

  3. [인터넷자료] Yang Jung Chul / A New Look at the Korea–U.S. Alliance

  4. [인터넷자료] / South Korea Is Preparing for a Lonelier, Scarier Future / Economist

  5. [인터넷자료] Sangbo Park / U.S.–Japan–South Korea Trilateral Cooperation Hangs in the Balance / The Diplomat

  6. [인터넷자료] Cho Il-Jun / U.S. Asking South Korea to Increase Defense Cost Share / Hankyore

  7. [인터넷자료] Toby Dalton / Elections, Nukes, and the Future of the U.S.–South Korea Alliance

  8. [인터넷자료] Richard Armitage / The 66-Year Alliance between the United States and South Korea Is in Deep Trouble / Washington Post

  9. [인터넷자료] Clint Work / Beyond North Korea: Fractures in the U.S.-South Korea Alliance / The Diplomat

  10. [인터넷자료] Chun / A Vision for the U.S.–ROK Alliance, Special Reports

  11. [단행본] International Institute for Strategic Studies / 2021 / The Military Balance : 61 ~ 279

  12. [인터넷자료] Kim Min-seok / The State of the North Korean Military, in Korea Net Assessment:Politicized Security and Unchanging Security Realities / Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  13. [인터넷자료] Eleanor Albert / North Korea’s Military Capabilities

  14. [단행본] Terence Roehrig / 2018 / Japan, South Korea, and the United States Nuclear Umbrella / Columbia University Press

  15. [학술지] Francis J. Gavin / 2015 / Strategies of Inhibition: U.S. Grand Strategy, the Nuclear Revolution, and Nonproliferation / International Security 40 (1) : 9 ~ 46

  16. [단행본] Alexander Lanoszka / 2018 / Atomic Assurance: The Alliance Politics of Nuclear Proliferation / Cornell University Press

  17. [단행본] Nicholas L. Miller / 2018 / Stopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy / Cornell University Press

  18. [단행본] G. John Ikenberry / 2012 / Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order / Princeton University Press : 167

  19. [단행본] Jennifer Lind / 2008 / Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics / Cornell University Press

  20. [인터넷자료] / A Shrimp among Whales / Economist

  21. [인터넷자료] Peter Harrell / China’s Use of Coercive Economic Measures / CNAS

  22. [인터넷자료] Evan Feigenbaum / Is Coercion the New Normal in China’s Economic Statecraft? / Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  23. [인터넷자료] Mira-Rapp Hooper / Extended Deterrence in the U.S.–ROK Alliance

  24. [인터넷자료] Kristine Lee / It’s Time for the U.S.–South Korea Alliance to Evolve / CNAS

  25. [인터넷자료] Choe Sang-hyun / Allies for 67 Years, U.S. and South Korea Split over North Korea / New York Times

  26. [인터넷자료] Se-Woong Ku / Is South Korea’s Alliance with the United States Worth It? / New York Times

  27. [인터넷자료] Sue Mi Terry / The Unraveling of the U.S.–South Korean Alliance / Foreign Affairs

  28. [인터넷자료] Steve Holland / U.S. and Allies Accuse China of Global Hacking Spree / Reuters

  29. [인터넷자료] / Huawei and ZTE Handed 5G Network Ban in Australia / BBC.com

  30. [인터넷자료] Ted Piccone / China’s Long Game on Human Rights at the United Nations

  31. [학술지] 김기주 / 2020 / Changes in U.S. Security and Defense Strategy toward China: Assessment and Policy Implications / The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 32 (4) : 539 ~ 560

  32. [인터넷자료] Alastair Gale / Decision to Join China-Led Bank Tests South Korea’s Ties to the U.S. / Wall Street Journal

  33. [인터넷자료] Michael Fuchs / How to Create a Durable U.S.–South Korea Alliance

  34. [인터넷자료] Rahul Raj / Is South Korea Again Becoming a Shrimp among Whales? / Hankyoreh

  35. [단행본] Eric Heginbotham / 2015 / The U.S.–China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017 / RAND

  36. [학술지] Evan Braden Montgomery / 2014 / Contested Primacy in the Western Pacific: China’s Rise and the Future of U.S. Power Projection / International Security 38 (4) : 115 ~ 149

  37. [보고서] Ji-Young Lee / 2020 / The Geopolitics of China–South Korea Relations

  38. [인터넷자료] / South Korean Participation in ‘Quad’ May Jeopardize Regional Security: S. Korean Adviser / Yonhap

  39. [인터넷자료] Michael Elleman / The New Hwasong-15 ICBM: A Significant Improvement That May Be Ready as Early as 2018 / 38 North

  40. [인터넷자료] David E. Sanger / North Korean Nuclear Test Draws U.S. Warning of ‘Massive Military Response / New York Times

  41. [인터넷자료] Jack Holmes / When It Comes to Nukes, Is It the North Koreans Who Are Irrational—Or Us? / Esquire

  42. [기타] Keir A. Lieber / 2013 / The Next Korean War: Conflict with North Korea Could Go Nuclear—But Washington Can Reduce the Risk / Foreign Affairs, April 1, 2013

  43. [단행본] Keir A. Lieber / 2020 / The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution: Power Politics in the Atomic Age / Cornell University Press

  44. [단행본] Daryl G. Press / 2005 / Calculating Credibility:How Leaders Assess Military Threats / Cornell University Press

  45. [인터넷자료] Toby Dalton / Between Seoul and Sole Purpose / War on the Rocks

  46. [인터넷자료] Byong-chul Lee / Don’t Be Surprised When South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons / Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

  47. [인터넷자료] / JoongAng Ilbo–CSIS Forum 2019 / CSIS

  48. [학술지] 현인택 / 2016 / An Enduring Dilemma on the Korean Peninsula: The North Korean Nuclear Conundrum and South Korea’s Strategic Choices / The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 28 (2) : 163 ~ 180

  49. [학술지] Hans M. Kristensen / 2017 / A History of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in South Korea / Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 73 (6) : 349 ~ 357

  50. [인터넷자료] David Axe / South Korea Is Packing Submarines with Rockets for Taking Out North Korea’s Nukes / Forbes

  51. [인터넷자료] Caleb Larson / Welcome to the Club: South Korea’s New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile / National Interest

  52. [인터넷자료] David Axe / American Just Freed South Korea to Make Better Rockets to Lob at North Korea / Forbes

  53. [인터넷자료] Zachary Keck / How to Handle South Korea’s Missile Ambitions / Foreign Affairs

  54. [인터넷자료] Choe Sang-hun / South Korea Says It Will Launch Spy Satellites as Missile Deal Is Revised / New York Times

  55. [단행본] Jennifer Lind / 2016 / Sustainable Security: Rethinking American National Security Strategy / Oxford University Press : 297 ~ 331

  56. [인터넷자료] / Quad Leaders’ Joint Statement: The Spirit of the Quad / White House

  57. [인터넷자료] Patsy Widakuswara / The ‘Quad’ Aims to Increase Vaccine Production to 1 Billion Doses for Southeast Asia / VOA

  58. [학술지] Jae Ho Chung / 2009 / China’s ‘Soft’ Clash with South Korea: The History War and Beyond / Asian Survey 49 (3) : 468 ~ 483

  59. [인터넷자료] Ju-Min Park / Calls in South Korea for Nuclear Weapons as Parliamentary Poll Looms / Reuters

  60. [인터넷자료] Franz-Stefan Gady / How the ‘Deep State’ Stopped a U.S. President from Withdrawing U.S. Troops from Korea / The Diplomat

  61. [단행본] Keren Yarhi-Milo / 2018 / Who Fights for Reputation / Princeton University Press

  62. [인터넷자료] David Vine / My Body Was Not Mine, But the U.S. Military’s / Politico

  63. [단행본] Katharine H. S. Moon / 1997 / Sex among Allies : Military Prostitution in U. S. –Korean Relations / Columbia University Press

  64. [인터넷자료] Kim Se-jeong / Long Way to Go for Yongsan Park / Korea Times

  65. [기타] Doug Bandow / 2017 / It’s Time for America to Cut South Korea Loose / Foreign Policy, April 13, 2017

  66. [단행본] John Glaser / 2019 / Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America’s Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Do Better) / Cato Institute

  67. [단행본] Christopher A. Preble / 2009 / The Power Problem: How American Military Dominance Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous, and Less Free / Cornell University Press

  68. [학술지] Eugene Gholz / 1997 / Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation / International Security 21 (4) : 5 ~ 48

  69. [학술지] Stephen Walt / 1997 / Why Alliances Endure or Collapse / Survival 39 (1) : 157

  70. [단행본] Mitchell Reiss / 1988 / Without the Bomb: The Politics of Nuclear Nonproliferation / Columbia University Press : 92 ~ 108

  71. [단행본] Alexandre Debs / 2017 / Nuclear Politics: The Strategic Causes of Proliferation / Cambridge University Press

  72. [보고서] Jung H. Pak / 2020 / Trying to Loosen the Linchpin: China’s Approach to South Korea

  73. [단행본] David C. Kang / 2007 / China Rising / Columbia University Press

  74. [학술지] 황원재 / 2020 / Trilateral Trade and Taking a Side Between the U.S. and China / The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 32 (4) : 601 ~ 623

  75. [단행본] John J. Mearsheimer / 2014 / The Tragedy of Great Power Politics / W. W. Norton & Company

  76. [학술지] Jennifer Lind / 2018 / Life in China’s Asia: What Regional Hegemony Would Look Like / Foreign Affairs 97 (2) : 71 ~ 82

  77. [인터넷자료] Larry Greenemeier / Obama’s Nuclear Arms Agenda Helps Him Win 2009 Nobel Peace Prize / Scientific American

  78. [인터넷자료] / Caring about Sharing: A Review of Nuclear Weapons Sharing

  79. [인터넷자료] Hans M. Kristensen / U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Review of Post–Cold War Policy, Force Levels, and War Planning