확률선택모형을 활용한 농촌 빈집의 공간적 패턴 예측

Forecasting for Spatial Patterns of Empty Houses in Rural Area Using Probabilistic Choice Model

As many social problems have resulted from empty houses in rural areas of South Korea, several studies have suggested some applications for empty houses focusing on each empty house. Unfortunately, few studies have been conducted to assess the occurrences of empty houses and the relationships between growth of empty houses and spatial planning factors. From this point of view, this study investigated the causes of empty houses by applying Residential Location Theory and also explored spatial patterns of empty houses in rural area, using Probabilistic Choice Model in Jeollabuk-do Wanju County. As a result, a strong correlation was shown between the locations of empty houses and spatial planning factors. First, mixed landuse had a negative impact on the locations of empty houses. Second, the areas which had low housing concentrations had a clear tendency to have more empty houses. Third, vulnerable areas located far away from infrastructure such as schools and main roads produced more empty houses. Finally, the forecasting results of spatial patterns of empty houses in the future clearly illustrated the fact that empty houses will be concentrated in certain areas and this tendency will be stronger as empty houses increase. Based on the above results, this study proposed several spatial implications to maintain and prevent empty houses from occurring in rural areas.