Trade Prospects of the New EU Neighborhood Policy: Evidence from Hausman and Taylor's Models

One major objective of the new EU neighborhood policy is to move towards more trade integration between the enlarged EU and its new Eastern and Southern neighbors, i.e., Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, as well as Southern Mediterranean and Caucasus countries. Using recent theoretical developments in gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation, which particularly focuses on trade costs. This equation is then used to investigate the new neighbors' export potential towards the EU market. For this purpose, several Hausman and Taylor's models are implemented in order to consider the correlation between certain independent variables and the residuals which are used to calculate trade potentials. Results outline that the NNCs' export potential is generally significant, especially for the new Eastern neighbors. However, it seems that this potential is limited for Mediterranean countries, as they have already enjoyed preferential market access with regards to the EU. Finally, an extension of the analysis to Middle-East and Gulf countries also highlights significant trade potentials with the EU.