VALUATION OF BUMN CONSTRUCTION COMPANY STOCK PRICES AT THE TIME OF A BULLISH AT THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE

This study provides an assessment of the stock prices of BUMN construction companies when the stock market in Indonesia is bullish. This study uses historical data for 2015-2018 to project stock prices in the next five years. The method used is the application of WACC, Cost of Equity, to terminate the value and value of the firm. The results showed that the company has high debt and sales costs, resulting in a decreased capital structure. The decline in capital structure performance affects investor valuations as reflected in the rise in stock prices. We are considering improving the capital structure. Future studies can develop micro aspects of valuing stock prices.

Stock price valuation is a very interesting topic for investors amid information flow and fast-moving market prices. Information that continues to change and is very likely to change at any time is reflected in the price of each share. In general, investors will compare the stock prices with similar stock prices or companies with the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). This phenomenon also occurred in BUMN construction company stock prices from 2015 to 2018, when the Indonesian stock market is rising (bullish). Sharafoddin and Emsia (2016) say that one of the most significant issues in investment management is stock valuation. Investors and shareholders can value their shares based on stock valuation models and make decisions on stock trading accordingly. The results of this study suggest that managers' success in stock valuation primarily depends on the correct understanding of influential resources and it is recommended that managers increase the value of their company's stock by the prober use and combination of factors effective in stock valuation according to the information of the company.
In 2015, the Indonesian government focused on infrastructure development (Humas Setkab, 2014). This is reflected in the preparation of the 2015 Revised State Revenue and Expenditure Plan (RAPBN-P). The focus of infrastructure development will certainly involve BUMN companies in the construction sector as holders of control and strate-SEPTEMBER 2020 Arni Utamaningsih gic directions for the government's policy at that time. For capital market players, the direction of government policy is relevant information and will affect the prices of shares of companies engaged in the construction sector, especially BUMNs. The movement of BUMN stock prices in the period of 2015-2018 is illustrated in the following graph: BUMN construction companies ar e PT Waskita Karya (Persero), PT Wijaya Karya (Persero), PT Adhi Karya (Persero), and PT Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero). On the graph, it can be seen that the stock prices of the four BUMNs are below the value of the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). Information on the direction of government policy at the beginning of 2015 was responded positively by the market, but in October 2018 stock prices tended to fall to the lowest point. The condition of the stock price shows a paradoxi-cal performance. The Composite Stock Price Index as a market risk identity (Hanafi, 2014) shows that market prices are moving in a favorable direction. Utamaningsih and Muharis (2020) found that the company's ability to make a gross profit was very good, but it was not supported by good net profit. In general, the company has a sales expense and a large interest expense, so the acquisition of net profit margins is less supportive. Hutapea et al. (2014), said that the company's net profit has a close relationship with the value of the company or the price of the company. If the company's net profit increases, the company's fair price increases. The company's fair pr ice can be seen from the company's stock price.
The background encourages further research in connection with the valuation of BUMN construction company stock prices. The results of this study provide an explanation that is a novelty in the field of Financial Management. The novelty is in the form of the intrinsic value of shares of BUMN construction companies when the Indonesian stock market is bullish. The intrinsic value of the share price has implications for investors' assessment of BUMN construction companies. This research is an attempt to predict the value of future shares based on financial data that has existed from 2015 to 2018 when the Indonesian stock market was bullish. Stock price valuation becomes very strategic to improve the financial performance of BUMN construction companies in the future so that the company's value can increase again and become a healthy company.

METHOD
This study establishes 4 (four) BUMN construction companies as research objects. The BUMN construction companies are PT Waskita Karya (Persero), PT Wijaya Karya (Persero), PT Adhi Karya (Persero), and PT Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero). The companies were selected as objects of research for a specific purpose in connection with the research objectives related to specific data held only by BUMN construction companies. This method is called purposive random sampling.

DATA SOURCE
Source of data collected from research objects is secondary data, which consists of: Certificates (SBI), inflation rates, the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the Dollar, and the rate of economic growth.

PT WASKITA KARYA (PERSERO) SHARE VALUATION
Stock valuation or valuation must be following established financial theories. That is the conceptual foundation of fundamental analysis which is a supporting pillar from questions about correct or intrinsic stock prices, and questions about ownership valuation are closely related to the question of market efficiency. Thus, an appropriate problem analysis cannot be done without macroeconomic theories and considerations (Christensen and Feltham, 2009). This idea is the basis of this article.
Based on the historical data of PT Waskita Karya from 2015 to 2018, we can calculate the value of the WACC and capital costs or Equity Costs. Furthermore, the value of profit after tax can be projected in the next 5 years based on capital costs. Table 1 can show the estimated free cash flow in the next 5 years, namely in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Terminate value can be obtained by obtaining the present value profit after tax, then move it to the value of EV / EBITDA. EV or company value is one of the best for valuing a public company rather than valuing prices with an income ratio (P / E) (Amiri et al., 2016). In this case, EV also considers the amount borne by the company, and investors use the EV value to determine the stock price. Table 1 below summarizes the calculation of the intrinsic value of PT Waskita Karya shares: Table 1 shows the estimation of the coming 5year stock prices, while in Table 2 it describes the data 5 years ago, namely the 2015-2018 data. The situation is described in Table 2. Table 2 contains share prices that rose in 2016 amounting to Rp2348 per share but declined in subsequent years to Rp2067 and Rp1609. The value of equity has increased from 2015-2018. The value of debt also increased larger from year to year from the value of Rp30,309,111,177,469 in 2015to Rp 124,391,581,623,636 in 2018. This evaluation refers to value-based management (Trinh and Thao, 2017).
Increased debt value also results in large gross profit margins, but high-interest costs and selling costs make net profit margins of little value. This makes the value of price to book value go down over 2015-2018. In Table 2, we can conclude that the value of the comparison of stock prices with the book value of shares above 1, which means overvalued. In 2018, the BV value is 0.76 and means undervalued.

PT WIJAYA KARYA (PERSERO) SHARE VALUATION
The calculation method in Table 1 is the same as Table 3. Calculation results also show the ten-dency of stock price estimation to increase every year. A large EV / EBITDA value allows the value of the company to increase each year. Assuming a fixed number of shares for the next 5 years, this results in an estimate of stock prices that increase each year. The following   Table 3, the estimated share price of PT Wijaya Karya increased from 2015 in a row to 2018. The result was made possible from the calculation of the book value of the shares which increased from 2015 to 2018. These results allow the price to book the value is always above 1, and it is concluded that PT Wijaya Karya shares from 2015 to 2018 are always overvalued. Complete calculation results are shown in Table 4.

PT ADHI KARYA (PERSERO) SHARE VALUATION
The calculation method in Table 1 is the same as   Table 6 in the following section supports the estimation of increasing share prices from 2019 to 2023. These results are in line with the price to book value above 1 from 2015 to 2018, and the price to book value of PT Adhi Karya shares decreased to 0.9 it was concluded undervalued in 2018.

PT PEMBANGUNAN PERUMAHAN (PERSERO) SHARES VALUATION
The calculation method in Table 1 is the same as Table 7. Calculation results also show the same tendency. Utamaningsih and Muharis (2020) state that state-owned construction companies are generally able to generate good profits, but high-interest costs and high sales costs turn large gross profits into small net profits. This condition makes the EV value go down, which implies that the stock price estimate also dropped.   2,184,469,703,709 5,442,779,962,898 5,869,917,425,997 6,285,271,896,258 Total liabilities and equity 11,598,931,718,043 20,037,690,162,169 28,332,948,012,950 30,118,614,769,882 Book value

view of the intrinsic value of PT Pembangunan
Perumahan shares: Table 8 shows that the share price of PT Pembangunan Perumahan was the highest among BUMN construction companies of Rp3,683 in 2015. The price dropped in subsequent years to Rp3,810 in 2016, Rp2,640 in 2017, and Rp1, 805 in 2018. From 2015 to 2017 the shares of PT Pembangunan Perumahan were overvalued, and in 2018 they were overvalued.

DISCUSSION
The period of 2015-2018 is a period of stock prices in the Indonesian capital market that is growing (bullish). However, shares of BUMN construction companies fell. This fact is a paradox because at that time the Indonesian government's policy to advance the infrastructure sector was very strong. This strategic policy is not supported by the positive performance of BUMN construction companies. This research wants to reveal this fact further. The   2019F  2020F  2021F  2022F  2023F  1st year  2nd year  3rd year  4th year 5th year Earning After Taxes (EAT) 1,958,993,059,360 2,842,489,326,526 4,124,438,079,457 5,984,539,436,095 8,683,537,386,719 12,599,770,183,110 Interest 759,837,836, 0.75 Interest(1-T) 569,878,377,059 826,890,731,678 1,199,814,398,407 1,740,924,810,830 2,526,073,366,838 3,665,320,072,959 Free Cash Flow 2,528,871,436,419 3,669,380,058,205 5,324,252,477,864 7,725,464,246,925 11,209,610,753,558 16,265,090,256 ,199,897,354 6,199,897,354 6,199,897,354 6,199,897,354 6,199,897 6,199,897,354 6,199,897,354 6,199,897,354 6,199,897,354 Earnings ( Total Equity 5,147,295,946,386 10,778,128,813,138 14,243,110,484,597 16,315,611,975,419 Total liabilities and equity 19,158,984,502,925 31,215,671,256,566 41,782,780,915,111 52,549,150,902,972 Book value facts of the findings are the novelty of this research which will be discussed in this section.

INDONESIA MACROECONOMIC CONDI-TIONS 2015-2018
The discussion began with a look at Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions in 2015-2018. In general, the three conditions are quite normal, with successive descriptions as follows: The background of macroeconomic conditions is important because it can assess the financial performance of BUMN construction companies objectively. Macroeconomic conditions that are being considered are the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the Dollar from 2015 to 2018, the condition of Indonesia's inflation, and Gross Domestic Product or GDP in 2015-2018 Source: Bank Indonesia exchange rates, reprocessed

Figure 2 Graph of Rupiah Exchange Rate Against Dollar 2016-2019
Based on Figure 1 it can be concluded, the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the Dollar tends to increase in the range of $ 1 with Rp13,000-Rp.14,000, and never reaches its peak in August-September 2018 at the value of Rp15,000. In Figure 2 it can be seen that the inflation condition in Indonesia is quite stable in the range of 3-4.5% per year. Inflation needs to be considered in the valuation of stock prices because inflation gives a positive or negative economic signal in the future growth depends on time, thereby affecting the direction of changes in stock/bond prices (David and Veronesi, 2013). The following is a graphic image:

IMPROVEMENT OF THE COMPANY CAPI-TAL STRUCTURE
Based on the above explanation, it can be concluded that the macroeconomic situation in Indonesia strongly supports the growth of companies in Indonesia. This condition is also supported by the condition of the Indonesian capital market which grew throughout 2015-2018. The explanation also explained that the economic situation in Indonesia was also very supportive of the growth of the construction business in Indonesia, in addition to policy support from the government in the field of construction in early 2015 as outlined in the Draft State Budget.
The paradox shown through the results of the study is an interesting phenomenon. The results of Utamaningsih and Muharis's (2020) research explained that the debt of BUMN construction companies from 2015 to 2018 continued to increase. The increase was accompanied by a high increase in gross profit. The burden of bank interest payments and high sales costs made the increase in gross profit not accompanied by adequate net income. These results make investors' assessment of the company down. Evidence of a decline in the share prices of BUMN construction companies in Figure 1 shows this. The share prices of the four BUMN construction companies fell together in August 2018, after the company's debt increased in previous years.
Company value is the focus of consideration for investors. Enterprise value (EV) is a better formula for determining the value of a public company than the price to earnings ratio (P / E). The calculation of enterprise value also takes into account the element of debt, and will then be the relevant analytical material for stock investors in forming their investment portfolios. Enterprise Value is the total value of the company and includes both the equity in the company as well as the debt the company has. Enterprise value is generally thought of in the market value not book value terms. i.e. we want to know what someone would pay for the company (Donovan, 2017). In this case, investors use the EV comparison with EBITDA. EBITDA is income before deducting interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization expenses. Calculation with this ratio is useful for comparing public companies across countries. This calculation also eliminates distortion due to differences in tax policies between countries. Based on these relationships, attracting investments between public cross-country companies is very easy to compare. Based on this also the transfer of capital between cross-country capital markets is very easy and fast.
EV value that decreases should be immediately corrected by the management of BUMN construction companies, to avoid the threat of acquisition. Bouwman et al. (2009), said that the state of the stock market can influence managerial acquisition decisions and acquisition quality when the market is bullish. The basic consideration of the company when it wants to buy a company is 1) the amount of capital raised as a purchase fund and 2) the purchase price compared to past prices (Christensen and Feltham, 2009). Ferreira and Matos (2008) found that all institutional investors have a strong preference for buying shares of large companies and com-The graph illustrated in Figure 3 shows the quarterly GDP growth rate in Indonesia from 2015 to 2018. Based on the structure of the economy it was reported that the Indonesian economy quarterly in the period 2015-2018 measured by GDP at current prices and GDP at constant prices shows a rising trend. The following is a graphic image:

Figure 4 2015-2018 Quarterly GDP Growth Chart (y on y) (in percent)
Source: 2015-2015 Quarterly GDP panies in countries that have good governance. Khorana et al. (2005), said that institutional investors are the main players not only in developed markets; their role is developing rapidly in developing market countries. Companies that have a low EV / EBITDA can be seen as good prospective acquisition targets or a good investment location. EV-based calculations also consider corporate debt. Investors often also consider the value of EV to acquire companies that are still considered attractive. Compared to valuing companies by calculating the market capitalization value, EV is considered a better calculation because EV considers the company's debt. The strategy to improve the soundness of BUMN construction companies is an important issue by improving a capital structure. Improvements to the capital structure are focused on improving the company's debt structure to reduce the company's fixed burden. Improvements were also directed at improving sales expenses. The control is expected to produce a better corporate financial structure. The improvement will have an impact on increasing the value of the company which is illustrated through the increased EV / EBITDA value, and will then be responded to by the market through rising stock prices.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA-TIONS
This paper has given the results of the valuation of each construction company. These results are also in line with research findings (Bouwman et al., 2009). In general, the company's debt burden creates a large bank interest expense. The company's selling expenses also corrected the company's gross profit margin and made a small net profit. This condition makes the company's value go down, in this case, the EV / EBITDA value decreases and the company becomes no longer competitive.
The value of the company that continues to decline makes the company lose its power. Improvement of capital structure can be focused on improving debt structure and controlling sales costs. Through the improvement of capital structure, it is expected that the company's financial condition will be healthier, in this case, it can be demonstrated through an increase in share prices that will make the company more competitive. Future research can be developed in micro studies concerning stock price assessments.