An institutional and socio-cultural perspective on the adaptation pathways approach

The uncertainties surrounding climate change are creating challenges for policy makers with regard to investments in water-related infrastructure. A promising new approach is the adaptation pathways approach. This article contributes to this approach by introducing an institutional and socio-cultural perspective. It presents an analytical framework to evaluate the necessary institutional and socio-cultural conditions, uncovering challenges with regard to the governance of adaptation and of keeping options open for the future. The framework has been applied to the case study of fresh water supply in the Netherlands. Based on an institutional and socio-cultural analysis, the feasibility, flexibility and governance of adaptation strategies are discussed. Reflecting on the presented framework, critical issues are addressed with regard to the further development of the adaptation pathways approach. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits copying, adaptation and redistribution, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). doi: 10.2166/wcc.2015.001 s://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/6/4/743/600631/jwc0060743.pdf Rutger van der Brugge (corresponding author) Ronald Roosjen Deltares, Princetonlaan 6, PO Box 85467, 3508 Utrecht, AL, The Netherlands E-mail: Rutger.vanderbrugge@deltares.nl


INTRODUCTION
In delta areas across the world, policy makers see themselves confronted with the uncertainties of climate change.
For instance, in the Netherlands they are confronted with uncertainties about the speed of sea-level rise, fresh water supply and flood probabilities of the river Rhine. These uncertainties create real challenges for policy makers with regard to investments in water-related infrastructure. On the one hand, they run the risk of adapting too slowly resulting in unsafe situations, while on the other hand they run the risk of wasting public money by over-dimensioning the infrastructure if climate change impacts turn out to be less than expected. Hence, dealing with uncertainty regarding climate change is a real art.
Usually, decision-support studies about the impacts of climate change take climate change scenarios as a starting point, calculate the impacts and develop potential solutions.
In a recent study, Kwadijk et al. () took another starting point. They asked instead how long present-day water management strategies would continue to be effective under different climate change scenarios. Kwadijk et al. () used the term adaption tipping points (ATPs) to indicate those critical values (thresholds) beyond which the current water management policies fail to meet their objectives. These thresholds can be norms or standards (i.e. water safety, water quality norms), financial thresholds (i.e. treasury, funding, cost-benefit) and societal thresholds (i.e. . We understand flexibility as the relative ease by which a policy can be adapted to changing circumstances (Mens et al. ). Hence, we see flexibility as a key quality of robust policies in the sense that policies can be adjusted, may be implemented sooner, or postponed, or can be switched to other measures altogether, while the result the policy aimed for will still be achieved. Walker et al. () refer to this as dynamic robustness. In the adaptation pathways map flexibility is shown by the so-called transfer points, the points where choices can be made between measures. These options reflect flexibility in the sense that when an ATP is reached, a variety of measures may be implemented (Rosenhead et al. ) in contrast to the situation in which the only option is to continue along the same path. This is also known as a lock-in, in which it becomes increasingly difficult or expensive to shift to an alternative pathway (Grin et al. ), often as a result of the existing infrastructure or economic activities.
The adaptation pathways approach builds further on the adaptation tipping points approach of Kwadijk et al. () and the Thames Estuary project in England (Reeder & Ranger ). Although the adaptation pathways approach requires simulation models and time series scenarios to quantify the ATPs and to generate adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al. , ), there is also some experience of applying the approach in a more qualitative way (Van  () have reviewed how the approach has been applied up till now in four different deltas.
This article aims to contribute to the further development of the adaptation pathways approach by introducing the institutional and socio-cultural dimension, since these two dimensions have not yet been addressed sufficiently in the approach. They are however important with regard to the actual feasibility and flexibility of an adaptation strategy.
Institutional conditions, such as legislation and responsibilities, or socio-cultural conditions, like belief systems, economic activities or the state of knowledge (see section two) enable certain adaptation measures while hampering others. To a considerable extent, they guide the actions and interactions of the actors involved in climate change adaptation, but are also shaped and reshaped by them (Termeer et al. ). As such, these conditions are enablers or barriers for climate change adaptation (Lawrence et al. ). Especially in the case of transfer options that require larger, transitional changes, the institutional and sociocultural conditions are important constraining factors (Grin et al. ). The point is that they may reduce the number of feasible pathways and the flexibility that is seemingly present in the adaptation pathways map of Figure 1.
With this is in mind, the main research aim in this study was: how can we incorporate the institutional and sociocultural dimension in the adaptation pathway approach?
To this end, a case study of fresh water distribution in the Netherlands (Haasnoot et al. ) has been re-examined with regard to the institutional and socio-cultural conditions of the proposed adaptation strategies. We have used the framework of Van  The next section outlines the framework that has been developed in order to incorporate an institutional and socio-cultural perspective, including governance, in the adaptation pathways approach. Subsequent sections cover presentation of the case study results, the conclusions drawn and discussions on how this study contributes to the adaptation pathway approach and the way forward.

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK Institutional and socio-cultural structures
The institutional and socio-cultural framework (ISAframework) presented here is developed to support the analysis of adaptation with regard to institutional and socio-cultural conditions, building further on the work done by Haasnoot et al. (). Application of the framework contributes to our understanding about how social structures should change in order to realize a particular pathway.
The ISA-framework is based on the framework presented in Van der Brugge (), in which institutional and sociocultural structures in the Dutch water sector were identified.
The framework was originally developed to analyse retrospectively how the institutional and socio-cultural structures in the Dutch water management sector had changed over the past thirty years. The framework however, can also be applied to adaptation pathways in a prospective way, that is, the analysis of which institutional and socio-cultural structures are implied by, or rather required by, different strategies. Existing social structures create institutional and socio-cultural conditions that either support of hamper measures (Giddens, ). Hence, for the realisation of an adaptation strategy, it might be necessary to change social structures. Behind these patterns of behaviour are sets of values, beliefs, ideas, knowledge and skills. Where institutions may be understood more or less as 'formal' structures, culture is associated with 'soft' or 'mental' structures. Infrastructure, as the third type of structure, refers to physical structures, such as roads, bridges, dykes, storm barriers and the like.
Since the adaptation pathway approach already includes the infrastructure, we focus here on the institutional and socio-cultural structures. Table 1 shows the structure elements in the institutional and socio-cultural domain that are used in the ISAframework. The institutional domain encompasses the following structure elements: responsibilities (of actors), legal norms, legislation, policy plans and budgets. These are typically formal structures, which can be traced back to official documents. They organize formal social interaction. The socio-cultural domain is divided into three subdomains: the social, the economic and the knowledge subdomains.
In the social subdomain, belief systems and awareness are considered. Belief systems refer to the underlying values, paradigms and discourses that are dominant in the sector.  Hence, all the above described elements of institutional and socio-cultural structure influence in their own manner the way in which we shape our climate adaptation strategies.
Application of the ISA-framework supports a more specific analysis of how these structures enable or constrain specific adaptation strategies.

Governance
In order to address the issue of the governance of adaptation strategies, we are interested in the question whether these structures indeed can be changed and how difficult that is.
Hence, we are interested in the actors that are connected to these structures, whether they have the resources and The approach consists of four steps in which various analytical exercises have been carried out. These exercises were carried out by the authors, who both have a professional history in the water management sector and were reviewed by two colleague experts. During the first step, the authors carried out an exercise to assess the socio-cultural changes implied by three different adaptation strategies. The institutional and socio-cultural structures were coded in terms of 'needing to change' for realisation of the path or 'not needing to change'. Then, an assessment was made on how these structures should change so that they would support the pathway. The second step was concerned with an exercise to identify the actors that have the power to change the structures that were coded as 'needing to change' during step one. Actors were coded as 'supporting' or 'hampering' the required change by assessing whether the strategy would or would not benefit their stakes.
In addition, the authors assessed whether the actors' resources were sufficient.
Step three was an exercise con- The main source of fresh water for the Netherlands is the River Rhine, which enters the country near Lobith in the Province of Gelderland (Figure 2). Rhine water is distributed across the land through three Rhine branchesthe Waal, Nederrijn, and IJssel. The first two branches eventually drain their water into the North Sea. The IJssel supplies Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. Lake IJsselmeer was created by damming the former inland sea called the Zuiderzee. The lake is approximately 1,100 km² and on average 5-6 m deep, with a maximum of 9.5 m.
Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer are important water reservoirs and play an important role in fresh water supply to the surrounding areas for agriculture (e.g. the

Provinces of Friesland and Groningen in the North).
According to the current policy the water level is set À20 cm NAP during summer when demand is high and À40 cm NAP during winter when demand is low. During dry spells in summertime, water from the lake is used to flush the regional water systems in the Western part of Holland to prevent salt intrusion from the North Sea.  Figure 1). In this analysis, however, we focused on the level of the three main strategies. We did so in order to illustrate the point more clearly as the required socio-cultural changes are more profound and not to be distracted by the complexity of the adaptation pathways map. Subsequently, the ISA-framework has been applied to the three strategies: strategy 1 refers to a path from the current policy towards a policy of elevating water levels in Lake IJsselmeer and in a later phase raising the level a second time; strategy 2 is a path from current policy to more efficient use to switching to salt water tolerant crops; strategy 3 is a path from current policy to more efficient use to changing land use. In addition, we used the ISA-framework to analyse the possibilities of switching from one strategy to another.

Socio-cultural analysis of the adaptation pathways
In this section, we present the results of the various analytical explorations that have been carried out. Table 2 shows the results of the analytical exploration of strategy 1. According to the authors, strategy 1 implies a number of structure changes in each of the considered domains. In the institutional domain, the most profound structure that seems necessary to change is the water level agreement of Lake IJsselmeer when the water level is allowed to rise. Raising the level also implies water level adjustments in nearby regional water systems (also in response to altering groundwater tables). This should be regulated in local water level agreements and maybe even in national water policy plans as well, since the implications are profound. Financially, in order to fund the large scale dike raising program implied by this strategy, the authors point out that substantial budgets would have to be reserved. With regard to the cultural domain, the authors assess that the current discourse is momentarily not quite creating the right condition for this strategy. Policy reports and other documentation written within the Delta Program show that the current discourse is tending strongly to maintain the current water level. So, instead of raising the level considerably, a flexible water level will be introduced first. Although one could argue that this might still lead to raising the level in the future, regional authorities are currently opposing that option.
Supported by research on the effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis, current belief with regard to raising the level structurally seems to be inclined towards 'not necessary and too expensive'. Support from the local community for raising dikes, harbours and other infrastructure seems unlikely There is already a great deal of experience with this kind of engineering work in the Netherlands. It would, however, be sensible to set up a research program to study effects and specific solutions.
With regard to the governance of strategy 1, the authors are inclined to see the water level agreements, the discourse and the local support for raising the water level as the most profound socio-cultural conditions needing to change. At the same time, they argue that these changes cannot be simply managed. Though principally national government is entitled to impose the strategy, the question is whether this could be achieved politically against the will of local communities, probably not without clear scientific evidence about the profitability to raise the water level. Top-down regulation at the expense of resistance of local authorities and the public is politically dangerous. Table 3 shows the analysis of strategy 2. This strategy critically depends on a change in the economic activity of farmers from growing traditional crops to growing crops that are drought or salt tolerant. The authors suspect that strategy 2 implies the embracement of a new discourse as well. The current discourse is still that the public water management authorities (Rijkswaterstaat and the water boards) are considered responsible for fresh water supply, although discussions are raised more and more if this remains justifiable in the future. The authors argue that this is still in contradiction to a discourse of farmers being self supportive with regard to fresh water supply. From an economic point of view, strategy 2 also implies the emergence of a consumer market for drought or salt tolerant crops. The authors emphasize that the successful emergence of such a market is highly uncertain and cannot be depended on. It implies that consumers will have to change their dietary habits in the future and that farmers will alter their production processes without having the certainty of receiving (higher) revenues.
In terms of governance, strategy 2according to the authors' assessmentis probably even more difficult than strategy 1, as it implies this emergence of a new consumer market which is a highly uncertain and uncontrollable dynamic. Evidently, this particular part of the strategy is not easily managed. Maybe through public awareness campaigns, successful marketing and stimulation regulations for farmers this could be facilitated to some extent, but above all it seems to be an autonomous development depending on consumer behaviour. Table 4 shows the structural changes in strategy 3 in which growing traditional crops will no longer be profitable. In this strategy, farmers ultimately sell their business and the land will be economically exploited in other ways. According to the authors, this strategy only differs from strategy 2 with regard to the necessary socio-cultural changes in the economic domain in the sense that it does not imply a new consumer market. It does however imply a same discourse change as in strategy 2, namely that farmers themselves are responsible for the way they deal with a lack of fresh water instead of the government. In terms of governance, the authors note that strategy 3 may in some way be seen as a laissez-faire strategy, but in fact, is based on a rational consideration of costs and benefits. If the costs of fresh water distribution rise up to a point that the costs no longer outweigh the benefits, the discourse might change. In some locations where hydrological conditions are bad and become only worse, this debate is already going on. It is also a matter of justifying tax money. A considerable part of the general water tax is now used to maintain water levels for agricultural purposes only.

Robustness and flexibility
The robustness of the three strategies has been analysed by According to the authors' assessment, strategy 1 appears to be quite robust with regard to the scenarios Steam and Busy. Characterized by high economic growth, growing population and heavy urbanization, both scenarios imply having strong needs and sufficient budgets available to invest in the water infrastructure required by strategy 1. In scenario Steam, the government and private parties are willing to invest in water infrastructure in order to safeguard economic activity. In scenario Busy, the underlying motivation is not economically driven, but safety and water supply are seen as a public responsibility. Strategy 1 seemed less robust with regard to the scenarios Warm and Quiet, according to the authors' assessment. These two scenarios have a declining economy. It could well be that in these two scenarios there is insufficient budget available for the costly water infrastructure of strategy 1. However, these scenarios rely strongly on agriculture, which on the other hand implies that investments in fresh water supply are supported. In scenario Quiet, however, there is a shift towards self-supportive communities and away from the Quiet, but much less robust with regard to scenarios Steam and Busy. In scenarios Warm and Quiet the small budgets imply that farmers have to be highly efficient. In cases where salinization cannot be prevented anymore, farmers are more or less forced to switch to salt tolerant crops. In scenario Warm, where fresh water supply is seen as public service, small investments might be done, but based on cost-effectiveness this would mean that some areas would not be supported. The authors argue that strategy 2 appears to be less robust with regard to scenarios Steam and Busy because of the strong urbanization that pressurizes agricultural land. Farmers will therefore be more tempted to sell their site for a good price than go experimenting with growing new crops and uncertain revenues. On the other hand, the authors point out that in scenario Busy, with its emphasis on sustainability, new markets for sustainable products could arise quickly.
Strategy 3 seems most robust with regard to all deltascenarios. According to the authors, more efficient use of fresh water is stimulated in all scenarios and specific sites where problems arise with fresh water supply will undergo land use changes. In Steam and Busy, these sites will be transformed into urbanized areas and in scenarios Warm and Quiet into nature sites.
Based on this particular exercise, the authors argue that since strategy 1 seems to score lowest on robustness, it has the greatest need of keeping options open to switch to one of the other strategies. Switching however, might be very costly. Strategy 1 requires large investments. Once this path is taken, it would be a waste of money switching to other strategies that do not require these investments. The other way around seems to be less expensive. Along strategy 2 or 3 it seems still possible to transfer to strategy 1, which suggests starting out with either strategy 2 or 3. Based on the exercise, strategy 3 seems to be the most robust strategy from the socio-economic perspective of the delta-scenarios.
Hence the need to keep options open to switch to the strategies might be smaller here.
Following this, the authors have looked into the governance of keeping open the options to switch from one strategy to another. In Tables 6 and 7 the authors have attempted to identify actions that could be undertaken in the institutional and socio-cultural domain in anticipation of a possible switch from strategy 1 to strategy 2 and from strategy 1 to strategy 3, respectively. The switch from enlarging the water storage capacity in Lake IJsselmeer to reducing water demand implies a shift from water management authorities taking responsibility for fresh water supply towards famers being responsible themselves. Self evidently, such a shift cannot be governed easily to the extent that it is a rather autonomous societal process. Anticipating actions are limited to raising awareness and communication, and preparing the community that responsibilities might change in the future. Table 8 shows possible anticipative actions to keep open options for a shift from strategy 2 or 3 to strategy 1. According to the authors, one of the anticipative actions could be a regulation to guarantee that new infrastructure, like harbours and wharfs, have dimensions that can cope with the higher water levels of Lake IJssel. Anticipative actions such as making spatial reservations for dike broadening to prevent housing or other economic activity from blocking a switch would be useful as well. In addition, creating awareness by the public that elevating the water level in the future is still an option is another action that could be done in order to prepare the public for a possible switch. Finally, the authors were not able to identify clear anticipatory actions in order to keep the options open for transferring from strategy 2 to 3 and vice versa. This is probably due to

DISCUSSION
With this study we have aimed to contribute to the further development of the adaptation pathways approach by introducing the institutional and socio-cultural dimension. These two dimensions have not yet been addressed sufficiently in the approach. Furthermore, we aimed to address the question of governance of adaptation strategies, including actions in anticipation of switching from one strategy to another. In this section we will discuss the results from the case-study analysis. We will try to show how the analysis can contribute to the discussion on robustness and flexibility and to adaptive governance, and how to proceed.
First conclusion we draw is that the ISA-framework is promising in incorporating the institutional and sociocultural dimensions in the adaptation pathway approach.
It shows that the institutional and socio-cultural conditions are indeed important factors to take into account. The  Interestingly, it is quite easy to derive the critical developments and the innovation and knowledge challenges that come with a specific adaptation pathway. In anticipation of future decisions, experimentation with possible innovative solutions should be stimulated much more to ensure adaptive capacity. In this respect there is much to learn from the transition management emphasis on learning and evaluation through experimentation with multiple innovative approaches simultaneously.