Frontiers of Biogeography

The Maple-leaf oak, Quercus acerifolia (E.J.Palmer) Stoynoff & Hess, is listed as Critically Imperiled by the State of Arkansas and considered endangered in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Oak Species. It is endemic to the interior highlands of the Ouachita Mountains in west-central Arkansas, where it is reported to occur in only four isolated locations. No specific research exists regarding predicted climate change impacts on the Q. acerifolia, but given its small range and habitat specificity, such climate change-driven impacts will likely pose significant risks to remaining populations. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to predict climatically suitable habitat for Q. acerifolia within its native range. We investigate how future changes in climate may impact habitat suitability. Currently, the estimated area of climatically suitable habitat area for Q. acerifolia is 2,523 km2. By 2050, the predicted climatically suitable habitat area is 749 km2, a 70% reduction in habitat extent. By 2100, the model ensemble predicts a suitable habitat of only 285 km2 or an 89% loss of present suitable habitat. The model ensemble also predicted climatically suitable habitat area in 20 counties (14 in Arkansas and six in Oklahoma), including the currently known four locations in Arkansas. Although Q. acerifolia is rare and is at risk of extinction due to potential climate-change driven habitat reduction, the SDM ensemble identified several new habitat areas for the species. New habitat information can be used to search for existing Q. acerifolia populations or guide reintroduction efforts, leading to enhanced focus on long-term management, conservation, and restoration of this critically-imperiled species.