A FRAMEWORK FOR CATEGORIZING RISKS IN HIGH SPEED TRAIN ( HST ) PROJECTS : THE EXAMPLE OF THE FIRST HST IN BRAZIL Summary

High Speed Train projects are exposed to risks of different natures, such as: low participation of private companies in the new railways construction, lack of skilled labor, high technology not available in the internal market, high costs with land acquisition, among others. Such risks if not managed properly can become real problems and compromise the achievement of the project objectives. The risk identification is the process of collection and description of events that can have negative effects on the project. This process should consider the project uncertainty elements in order to generate specific results. In the case of HST projects, examples of uncertainty elements are: politics, economy, environment, human resources and technology. Therefore, this study aims to present a framework for categorizing risks to be used in HST projects. Also, for each category proposed some risk examples are suggested. An overview of the first Brazil HST project is showed and the risk framework is proposed. A discussion on the risks in the first Brazil HST project are presented followed by final conclusions.


INTRODUCTION
High speed is a highly beneficial transport system for society that is becoming more and more popular world-wide.At the present time there are High Speed established systems of varying ages in different European and Asian countries and at the same time, there are other nations looking into building new routes, including Brazil [1].
The first High Speed Train (HST) project in Brazil will have 511 km of route between Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Campinas, with seven stops on the way.The Brazilian HST project continued to be subject of technical studies by the Company of Planning and Logistics (EPL), which it is close to be completed to, after that, conduct the auction to select the operator and the HST technology.
The design, construction and operation of a new HST system is a complex task with many influences, stakeholders, requirements, challenges and objectives which must all be taken into account.Within this context, HST projects are exposed to risks of different natures as low participation of private companies in the new railways construction, lack of skilled labor, high technology not available in the internal market, high costs with land acquisition, high environmental impact, among others.Risk management is a formal and systematic management process that seeks to identify, analyze, treat, monitor and control project risks, throughout the life cycle of the same.
The risk identification process, the focus of this study, consists of identifying and describing the potential negative events of the project and their consequences for the project.The risk identification process should consider the project uncertainty elements in order to generate results targeted to the project context.During our literature review, no study dedicated to specification of these uncertainty elements and the risks was found.Thus, the present article propose a framework for categorizing risks in HST projects.Such framework will enable to identify specific risks to a HST project and serve as input for the following risk management processes.Also, for each category some risk examples are showed.The risk framework proposed, is applied to the case of the first HST project in Brazil.
With this article it is hoped that the stakeholders of an HST project will increase the quantity and quality of risks which are identified, as well as develop a pro-active culture within the project.

RISK MANAGEMENT
As projects are about doing something new, they are about change.Change introduces uncertainty and uncertainty is risk [2].
Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, will cause a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost and quality (PMI, 2013).Most authors dealing with risk management considers the risk definition in terms of their probability and impact [3].
Known risks are those that if are identified and analysed, enable the response planning in order to reduce the occurrence probability or the severity of impacts on the project [4].
Risk Management (RM) is about the steps you take in a systematic way that will enable to identify, assess, response and control risk [2].A good RM procedure will support better decision-making concerning risk, as there will be a better understanding of the risks, how these risks will affect the project and the responses to these risks if they should occur.Project risk management objectives are to increase the probability and impact of positive events and reduce the probability and impact of negative events in the project [2,4].
Risk management begins with the risk identification and description process [2,4].It is recommended to identify and record potential risks arising from interactions related to the activities, process and product of the project organization, the required organization and the stakeholders [5].The main benefit of this process is the documentation of existing risks and the knowledge and ability that it provides to the project team to anticipate events.
There is a variety of techniques to identify risks as: brainstorming, interviews, comparison by analogy, Delphi technique, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats), checklist, WBS (Work Breakdown Structure), FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis), FTA A framework for categorizing risks… 39.
(Fault Tree Analysis), analysis of the project life cycle, critical path analysis, decomposition and classification of risks into categories according to their sources of origin [2,4,6,[7][8][9].
The risks can be classified by categories to help identify specific risks taking into account the project context [3].The following risk categories are proposed: • Input risks: risks arising from the input information to be transformed by the product design activities.• Domains risks: risks relating to the project team (e.g.technical specialists) and the product clients/customers in terms of knowledge domains required in the product design activities.• Mechanism risks: risks derived from the methods, tools and other resources to be used in the execution of the activity.
• Output risks: risks arising from the output information or physical objects to be transformed by the product design activities (deliveries).
About the project management, the following risk categories are defined: • Scope risks: risks related to the product and project scope; • Time risks: risks associated with product design process and the project schedule; • Cost risks: risks related to the project costs; • Quality risks: risks associated with the desired quality of the result.
The risks from product design and project management categories are called, respectively, technical risks and management risks.
To aid in the technical risk identification, a set of investigative questions is proposed, as presented in Fig. 1.

Fig.1. Formularization of investigative questions for the technical risk identification [3]
Il. 1. Formulação de questões de investigação para a identificação de riscos técnicos [3] These questions seek to stimulate the project team to think about the possible product design risks, considering the inputs, domains, mechanisms and output of this process, that is, the technical risk categories.
Examples of investigative questions are: What negative outcome could result from the activity "Identifying the client/customer needs" in terms of information availability?What negative outcome could result from the activity "Establishing the product functional structure"?What negative outcome could result from the activity "Developing the product layout"?
Often, the project is subject to management risk that if not properly managed can seriously compromise the project progress and results.In this sense, the scope, time, cost and quality risks are identified, based on the project plan previously defined by the product development team [3].
For the identification of the scope, time, cost and quality managerial risks a structure for the investigative questions similar to that of the questions suggested for the technical risks is also proposed.Once again, the objective of these questions is to stimulate the project team to think about the possible risks, in this case, the managerial risks.
To answer these questions, the project team should reflect on the possible risks based on the project plan and having in mind "what" should be investigated on the scope, time, cost and quality of the project, i.e., the categories of managerial risks previously defined [3].
The risks highlighted from the investigative questions and from the risk bases will form the technical and managerial project risk list.

A FRAMEWORK FOR CATEGORIZING RISKS IN HIGH SPEED TRAIN (HST) PROJECTS
From the technical risks and management risks categories, specific risks categories for an HST project were defined, as shown in Tab. 1.For each category, examples of possible risks will be presented.External Category: risks from the macro environment, which should be limited for the proper risk management.In the case of a high-speed rail projects, the external risks subcategories were defined as shown in Tab. 2.
Stakeholder Category: are the risks concerning the project stakeholders and affected by it, as shown in Tab. 3.
Project Category: HST project technical risks are those derived from the implementation of the project phases and activities.The implementation process of the High Speed Railway System is divided in five different phases: emerging phase; feasibility phase; design phase; construction phase [1].Risks were defined as shown in Tab. 4 for each phase.
Output Category: risks associated to the outputs of each stage of a High Speed Railway System Implementation (Emerging, Feasibility, Design, Construction and Operation phases).Tab. 5 shows output risk examples.
A framework for categorizing risks… 41.

HIGH SPEED TRAIN
From the first train, which started operating in 1964 in Japan, the use of high-speed rail systems in the world was expanded considerably.These systems which technically still are improving in terms of safety and operational speed, expanded their network [10].
An example of this evolution is the initial train operational speed of 210 km/h which nowadays achieves 350 km/h.The rolling stock manufacturers are managing the next generation of trains, mostly multiple units with better energy performance and potential speed between 350 and 400 km/h [10].

Brazil HST -Overview
In Brazil, for some time the feasibility of deploying a high-speed rail line between Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo has been subject of studies.
In 2012, the federal government set up the Planning and Logistics Company (EPL) to structure and implement an integrated planning of logistics in the country.In addition, the EPL will be responsible to plan and promote the development of the high speed rail service in the country.
As the latest studies are 2009, an update on the passenger demand and in the project track has been made.However, before launching a public competition, the EPL is waiting for a government policy decision on the continuation of the project [10].
The route of the Brazil HST project will be between São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.The HST line fulfils a concept to connect the airports of Guarulhos (São Paulo), Viracopos, Campinas (SP) and Galeão (Rio de Janeiro) to their metropolitan areas.
The metropolitan regions and cities where the establishment the HST stations is planned adds up to nearly 20% of the population.The cities of Campinas, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are areas of great importance due to its historical and territorial mobility of people, goods, information, thus it is important for materialization of this movement [11].
The total estimated distance between Campinas and Rio de Janeiro is 511 km; with the distance between São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro about 412 km.The total travel time between the two cities is estimated at approximately 1 hour 33 minutes.It is noteworthy that travel times are approximate and are based on a maximum operating speed of 300 km/h [10].
Fig. 3 shows a diagram where it is showed the population of major urban areas that receive stations.The estimated demand for the year 2014 was 32.6 million people and the forecast demand for the year 2024 it is to achieve 46.1 million people [10].In addition to the socio-economic aspect, the technical studies under the project engineering, is another point to be established in the Brazil HST project based on international standards of highspeed lines.
It is expected in the current feasibility studies, that HST will not share any existing track or operate with existing Brazilian services of railway or metro.The HST route provides for dedicated tracks to the main station in each city, with the route often located in tunnels in densely populated urban areas.
A framework for categorizing risks… 45.

RISKS IN THE FIRST BRAZIL HST PROJECT
In the first Brazil HST, according to the Institute of Applied Economic Research [12], some potential investors highlight two risks that could derail the project.
The first one is the initial cost of the construction (emerging phase) which may exceed the government budget.The second risk is related to the low passenger demand (feasibility phase) and hence the expected revenues are lower than projected (operation phases).
Thus, the high investments and implementation risks, in addition to the long-term return that the first HST project in Brazil is subject, has made it unattractive to private sector.Therefore, it is important to involve the federal government in the HST project.The first HST in Brazil can be justified by the fact that the benefits go beyond business profitability.The social and environmental benefits should be the purpose of public investment.
Also, it is important to take into account that the Brazilian project has almost all the features that, according to international literature, make it more expensive.The track scheme will have inclined track to climb the Serra do Mar (leaving from Rio de Janeiro and arriving in São Paulo which has an average altitude of 760 m), it will pass through several tunnels and viaducts, cross high cost land of expropriation, go through areas of high population density (which increases the compensation costs), it will not use existing rail network and it will cause high environmental impact because of the Atlantic Forest.
Tab. 6 presents the most relevant risks in the first HST project in Brazil, taking into account the risk subcategories proposed in this paper.Initial construction costs that may exceed the government estimates.

FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
From a managerial perspective, this article is important to facilitate the risk category identification and its risks in the HST projects.It is hoped that the stakeholders will increase the quantity and quality of risks which are identified, as well as develop a pro-active culture within the project.
In future studies, this research model needs to be tested in practice in order to validate the risk categorization model in HST projects and assess its efficiency, as well as to evaluate the risks proposed here.
It can be concluded that the first HST project in Brazil is very important because it establishes the connection between the two largest population centers in Brazil, one of them the world's largest.In addition, nowadays the people mobility between these two metropolitan areas occurs only through road transport, which is slow, and air transportation.The air transportation, although efficient, is under risks of interruptions and delays that can cause major disruptions.
The first HST project in Brazil has a clear nature risk, since these metropolitan areas are separated by the Serra do Mar, which is at an altitude of 900m, with hills and valleys.This fact raises the project cost, mainly in the construction and operation phases.The little experience of Brazil in this type of project is another important risk, as well as foreign companies that do not hold expertise for projects of this magnitude in regions such as Brazil.
Considering the types of risk related to this important project, especially in the academic environment, is a mandatory task.It was one of the drivers for publication of this article, more specifically to share and exchange knowledge about HST projects with experts in the field in order to stimulate a discussion about the High Speed Train in Brazil.

Table 2
External risk category

Table 6
Some risks in the Brazil HST project