4.1 Water supply/demand dynamic balance
Figure 5 shows the actual water requirements (actual use/consumption) from the year 2000 to the year 2023 as were monitored by the MEWRE (2022). The water requirements/supply were on average equal to 1.375 Bm3/yr. Figure 6 also shows projected water demand of Kuwait from 2024 to 2035 at an average growth rate of 3.2%. The annual growth rate for agricultural, domestic and industrial projected water demands are 3%, 3.5% and 1.5% respectively. The total water supply for the year 2010 (Fig. 6) was at 1783 Mm3 which is an exceptional year as the water requirements were 61%, 34% and 5% for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors respectively. Generally, the water requirements/demands are: 51%, 44% and 5% for agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors respectively as shown in Fig. 5.
The relationship between water supplies and demands is shown in Fig. 7 which demonstrates that the groundwater wells are supplying both the agricultural and industrial sectors while the desalination plants are supplying the domestic demand centers. The returns from all domestic, agricultural and industrial water use sectors is collected at a central wastewater reruns (WWR) as indicated in the center of Fig. 7, where it is treated partially and sent to the reused in the agricultural demand center.
Each sector is assined a water supply priority. For this study, the domestic sector has a first priority while the agricultural and industrial sector have a second priority as shown in Fig. 8.
WEAP reallocates water supplies to demand cetres with priorities and effective governorance (Aliewi and Al-Rashed, 2022; Al-Zubari, 2014). To illustrate this fact, Fig. 8 shows that WEAP simulated agricultural demands to be 493 Mm3 in the year 2000. Accoridng to WEAP’s methodology the demand was met by groundwater wells at 375 Mm3 which is 70% of the potential water supplies of groundwells in that year. Then the remaining 30% of needed water supplies (493 − 375 = 118 Mm3) was met by 94 Mm3 of treated wastewater (which is the maximum potential of that water supply source i.e., reuse source in that year). A simple arithmatics shows that 493 − 375 (wells) − 94 (reuse) yields water shortages of 24 Mm3. According to Fig. 7, WEAP was set up to take this water supply from the return flows (WWR) to be treated first and then provided it to the agricultural water demand center. This scenario continues till the end of the planning period 2024 to 2035. This necessates the use of the water supplies to their full potential. However, it does not always guarantee that water demands by all sectors are met. Figure 9 shows that the agricultural water demand centre continues to be supplied with wells, reuse of WWR sources till the end of year 2029. After that, the country faces water sharorages in the agricultural water supplies. These water shortages in the years 2030 to 2035 accummulate to 627 Mm3 which is on average 105 Mm3/yr. This concludes that Kuwait needs to treat more quantities of wastewater in addition to industrial and irrigation returns for reuse purposes to irrigate more crops in the farms. In fact, Kuwait is implementing now a number of other solutions to supply water to the agricultural sector in an attempt to eleminate water shortage and use better quality of water supplies to irrigate crops such as: Reverse Osmosis (RO) units at farm level; tankers to supply desalinated water to farms and the concpt of virtual water. These policies will be discussed in more details later in this study. Simulation runs show that the domestic water shortages accumulate between 2024 to 2035 some 2,600 Mm3 which is 217 Mm3 per year on average. This result occurred because WEAP was set not to increase the capacity of the desalination plants beyond 2023 because Kuwaiti planners are developing other plans to bridge the domestic water shortage gap beyond 2023. The other solutions include water demand measures. Water shortages in the industrial sector was simulated at be 63 Mm3 over the period 2030 to 2035 which is just over 10 Mm3 per year.
The overall water supply/demand balance in Kuwait for the period 2000 to 2035 is shown in Fig. 10 which is also summarized in Table 4.
It should be noted that the balance between water demand and supplies over the period 2000 to 2035 is made through return flows. Some of these return flows is treated and reused to fill the gap until the maximum potential of the treated return flows is used. The actual picture is established when actual water is supplied with priorities versus water demands by each sector which yield water shortages as shown in Fig. 9.
Table 4
Water supply/demand Inflow balance (Mm3/yr) in Kuwait from 2000 till 2035
Water use/consumption
|
-49,645
|
Water supply from desalination plants
|
24,344
|
Water supply from wells
|
27,523
|
Water supply from reuse plants
|
7,969
|
Demand-Supply without return flows
|
+ 10,696
|
Return flows
|
-10,696
|
Overall water demand-supply balance with return flows
|
0
|
The water shortages in Kuwait beyond the end of the year 2023, can be bridged with some strategic solutions such as increasing reuse of treated wastewater for irrigation, increasing the use of RO units for farms, grow crops that use less water, reuse of water produced by dewatering wells for industrial and greenery purposes; artificial recharge of the treated wastewater and/or surplus desalinated seawater in winter seasons and finally by water demand control measures.
4.2 Policies option
Aliewi et al. (2017) applied multi-criteria decision analysis methodology and illustrated that the top priority option for Kuwait in the short and long terms future to substantially reduce water shortages between water supplies and demands is the reuse of treated wastewater to become a major water supply source for irrigation. At the moment Kuwait is reusing 25% of wastewater as illustrated earlier in this study. The unified water strategic study UWSS (2016) of the GCC countries reported that Kuwait is reusing only 14% of treated wastewater. Although there is a discrepancy in the reported figures about wastewater reuse but there is a need to increase this percentage in order to irrigate fully with treated wastewater. Adopting this policy will indeed ease the stresses on brackish groundwater resources in Kuwait which is at the moment over pumped to meet the agricultural water demands. In terms of policies, the winter season of Kuwait generates a large volume of runoff which can also be utilized. However, surface water harvesting is not being utilized in Kuwait. It is estimated (Aliewi et al 2021a) that the surface water can be harvested for aquifer recharge and irrigation purposes. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have already operated plans to benefit from surface water resources and Kuwait should follow. As an example, KSA is utilizing 2000 Mm3/yr through dams. The high water use of the agricultural sector is 51% of water supplies in Kuwait because of the lack in water sector policies and regulations in addition to general inefficiencies in water usage. As discussed earlier, there is a need to fully reuse treated wastewater for irrigation purposes. Reduction in losses in water supply and distribution systems is not adopted as a serious policy in Kuwait yet. Given the heavy reliance on desalination plants and current subsidies to the water sector, this sector is imposing a heavy burden on Kuwait economy. Desalination depends on fossil fuel and has its negative environmental footprint (UWSS, 2016). The policies of water pricing through instating tariff rates and economic incentives to wisely use water are suitable ones for conservation (Mohamed et al., 2020; Al-Rashed, 2017; A-Zubari, 2009; Fadlemawla, 2009; Al-Otaibi & Mukhopadhyay, 2005; Al-Rashed and Sherif, 2000). It also secures financial sustainability. The tariff rates should always be reasonable socially and should maintain some subsidy for low-income citizens (Al-Banny and Takizawa, 2022). This study discusses only self-sufficiency policy for food security against virtual water concept.
The agricultural sector as illustrated earlier is consuming 51% of the total water supplies in Kuwait while its contribution to the GDP is very low (less than 1%) (Al-Rashed, 2017). Also, in Kuwait, the intensive use of agro-chemicals to increase crops productivity and to wash out salt from soils (Aliewi et al., 2021b) is an environmental concern. This has resulted in aquifers pollution with nitrates, boron and salinization. Kuwait subsidize local agriculture considerably. The strategic policy of food security and self-sufficiency in Kuwait has provoked over exploitation of groundwater resources. This has resulted in a considerable increase in groundwater extraction encouraging farmers to produce crops of low returns to water volume and so wasted a lot of water as well as deteriorating the quality of groundwater resources. The food self-sufficiency policy should be re-examined within the top policy makers in Kuwait who should consider using high-tech (hydroponic) agriculture and biotechnology genetically modified crops which can reduce soil carbon holding and CO2 emissions (Ojuederie et al., 2017). The cultivation of the high water-consumptive crops and low economic values should be avoided. There should be a consideration to shift from low value vegetables grown in open fields to high value vegetables grown in green houses (Mohtar, 2021; Aliewi and Alomirah, 2020). Virtual water is the amount of water ‘embedded’ in a product (Allan, 1996, 1998; Fares et al., 2013; FAO and ESCWA, 2021; Mohtar, 2021). The water that is used to produce food are part of food imports. Identifying the amount of virtual water embedded in food improves water management practices and policies. Since, Kuwait is an arid country, it is not the correct policy to follow self-sufficiency policy for food generation. This is because its water resources and arable lands are already stressed and limited. Kuwait should make efforts to make its farmers aware that when they purchase crops or food from outside the country, they are effectively importing water embedded in the food and they are saving their indigenous water resources from depletion. The farmers should know that the cost of depleting brackish groundwater resources is massive. The long term of unsustainable water use from aquifers created by thousands of private farm wells should be changed towards sustainable sourcing. Virtual water is the answer. Gawel and Bernsen (2013) discussed the problems associated with virtual water.
Kuwait should increase its investment in the virtual water trade as reported by Al Rashed et al. (2023). They illustrated that the continuation of the current quantities of water supplies for the agricultural sector in Kuwait will deplete groundwater resources (Lezzaik and Milewski, 2018) and the only exist way of this stressful situation is to implement virtual water for agricultural trade to achieve food security. In the process of addressing the suitability of virtual water policy for Kuwait, then the two important questions which need convincing answers are: what is the cost of producing these food products within Kuwait? and does Kuwait own suitable water resources and crop lands to support local agriculture? Al-Rashed et al. (2023) reported that Kuwait can save from 530 Mm3/yr which indeed reduce the water shortages gap of Fig. 12 substantially. This can be understood if a simple comparison is made with Fares et al. (2013) study who indicated that during the period 2000–2006, Kuwait imported food embedded water is equivalent to 258 Mm3/yr which is one quarter of the total water resources of Kuwait. The results of Fares et al. (2013) study just illustrates that Kuwait should reevaluate their policies of food self-sufficiency. Virtual water policy is essential for food security in Kuwait.
4.3 Economic benefits of implementing water policies including virtual water
As illustrated in Fig. 9, Kuwait is going to face on average 332 Mm3/yr over the planning period 2024 to 2035. With regards to the agricultural sector in Kuwait, the virtual water policy should be a major choice for Kuwait long term future together with the following measures:
∇ Install flow meters on agricultural wells.
∇ Select crops that consume less water.
∇ Modify tariffs for water use by farmers.
∇ Improve water use efficiency.
∇ Improve irrigation efficiency.
∇ Reduce water leakage.
In order to achieve economic benefits from bridging all water shortages through the above measures, the following Kuwait Environment Public Authority criteria (KEPA, 2019) were applied in this study to yield the results:
∇ $4.9 can be saved when 1 m3 of water is saved.
∇ $488 can be saved when 1 ton of CO2 is avoided.
∇ 5 kg of CO2 is generated when 1 m3 of water is produced.
Hence by eliminating 332 Mm3/yr of water shortages by policy solutions, Kuwait can eliminate 1.66 million tons of CO2 per year saving $810 million per year. Also, Kuwait can conserve 332 Mm3 of water per year to save 1.627 B$ per year. However, reallocation of water resources through international trade (virtual water policy) normally faces problems of efficiency, sustainability and moral issues in imports and exports (Gawel and Bernsen, 2013). The virtual water concept between developing and the industrial countries always requires free trade. The recent war between Russia and Ukraine confirms that virtual water is difficult to secure food trade between industrial and developing countries. Therefore, the vital water option for Kuwait requires the purchase of fertile rich lands with good quality water resources in Europe or Latin America so that Kuwait can employ their own workers in these agricultural lands to work under their management in order to try to achieve food sustainability. However, political tensions and disputes between these countries will always remain a concern to limit the flow of virtual water from water-rich to water-poor regions. Gawel and Bernsen (2013) discussed that the virtual water concept lacks relevant economic information about the actual values of diverse water resources. They questioned whether virtual water trade can lead to an unsustainable exploitation of water resources. They argued if virtual water trade satisfies the united nations principles of equity, justice and global water use efficiency. They also discussed that the concept of virtual water will promote overexploitation of water resources in countries rich with water. Also, the actual problems of local water use in developing countries may not be addressed properly by virtual water trades. Virtual water may impact negatively the production ability of developing countries to serve their own best interests.