Livestock Farmer’s Perceptions of How Changes in Climate Variabilities Are Impacting The Production Systems in The Gambia

A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study was conducted in six administrative regions of The Gambia, in order to assess livestock owners' perceptions on climate variabilities changes and their impact on livestock rearing in The Gambia. A total of 440 study participants were interviewed and six focal group discussions were undertaken. Descriptive statistics, Pearson's chi-squares analysis and Binary logistic regression were used to analyze the data. Among them 351 (80%) were males, while 89 (20%) were females. This result reveals that, middle-aged farmers from 40-49 years old had (P value =0.035), livestock owners in NBR (P value=0.006), CRR-S (P=0.038), and CRR-N (P=0.001) were the main factors signicantly inuencing livestock owner’s perception on rainfall. As for temperature, livestock owners residing in WCR (P <0.001), NBR (P=0.006), CRR-S (P <0.038), CRR-N (P <0.001) and Herdsmen (P <0.003) and crop farmers (P <0.004) were highly associated with knowledge on changes in temperatures The research also revealed farmers were faced with low milk production and poor-quantity meat as they attributed it as the cause of climate change. Finally, the research has shown that, livestock owners are very much aware of climate change and the consequences it has on their livelihood.


Introduction
The notion of climate change and variability is perhaps the most discussed phenomena of our time.
There is consensus in the scienti c eld that the land and sea temperatures are warming due to the rising effect of Greenhouse Gases and the warming is expected to continue at least, the next two decades and others are to effectively support adaptive and mitigated behavior in livestock production, livestock farmers' perception about climate change must be understood. While many recognize the importance of understanding perception of livestock farmers on how climate variabilities are affecting animal production. However, very little research effort has been made in this eld (Barnes and Toma 2011)., Therefore, this study seeks to address the knowledge gap on livestock farmers' perception and attitude towards climate change and its variability in The Gambia. This research investigates livestock farmers' perception of changes in climate variabilities and how these changes affect their production.

Study location
The Gambia is located in the tropical sub-humid ecoclimatic zone, with annual rainfall ranging from 800 to 1200 mm annually (Jaiteh 2017). There are two seasons in the climate: a rainy season (June to October) and a dry season (November to April), which is six to seven months without rain (Barrow et al., 2020), During the dry season, the climate is dominated by dry, dusty winds that originate from the Sahara

Method of data collection
A cross-sectional study was conducted from October to December 2020. Participants were carefully chosen using a random sampling approach. Gambia Bureau of Statistics (GBOS) 2017 showed the population of individuals with livestock in The Gambia as 724,952 individuals. Using Yamane 1967 formula, where x is the sample size, N is the population size and e is the level of precision (0.05).
Then from this formula, a sample size of 400 was obtained and this was further multiplied by 10% for sampling error to obtain 440 participants. Two districts and one village per district were randomly selected from WCR, LRR, NBR, CRR-S, CRR-N and URR in The Gambia ( gure 1). A list of about 200 to 400 cattle owners in these villages was obtained from the livestock extension o cers. Names that fall in even numbers were chosen based on the proportion used by GBOS in order to obtained the exact number of participants needed from each region for the study.

Interview section
After the livestock owners were interviewed, Six Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) consisting of 5-10 people were carried out and one focus group made of livestock farmers per region using semi-structured interview questions (Agwu et al. 2018

Statistical analysis
Microsoft Excel spread sheet program was used to manage the raw data. STATA 11 statistical analysis tools were used to analyze and interpret the data. The data obtained was analyzed using descriptive keep between 50 to 100 animals whiles another 53 (12%) keeps between 151 to 200 animals ( Table 2).

Perception of respondents towards observed climate variables
Perception of respondents towards observed drought from the total participants, 94% of them had knowledge on the occurrence of drought, 95% observed change in rainfall whiles 86% reported that, there has been an increase in temperature in their communities over the past 30 years Figure 2). In contrast most of the participants 43%, 26% and 24% respectively reported that, the change in rainfall, drought and temperature was as a result of a natural causes whiles 42%, 27% and 49% respectively also reported that drought, rainfall and temperature increase is caused by humans in gure 3,4 and 5 respectively.

Perception of respondents towards perceived impact of climate variabilities on vegetable
Participants in this survey were asked how well they understood the effects of drought, temperature, and rainfall on vegetation in the Gambia, and 85%, 61%, and 55% said drought, temperature, and rainfall had resulted in less pasture in their community, respectively ( gure 6). Changes in drought, rainfall, and temperature have had a negative impact on livestock owners' herds, vegetation, and the farmer population in The Gambia. According to farmers in (FGDs), the effects of on animals include decreased fertility, increased animal illness, and overall decreased productivity and death.

Factors associated with
Knowledge of the respondent towards climate variabilities and its impact on cattle production in The Gambia using Pearson chi-square test Table 4 shows Pearson chi-square result for perception of respondent on the occurrence of climate change perceive variation in the selected variables as a result of changes in climate in The Gambia. It appears that region, age, ethnic group, occupation and quali cation all are signi cantly associated with livestock owner's perception of change in rainfall, whiles region, age ethnic group, occupation and quali cation were also highly signi cate which the respondent's perception of change in temperature. As for drought, only gender, age and occupation were highly signi cant (Table 3). However, Table 4 shows the Pearson chi-square result of perception of respondent on the cause and impact of climate change on cattle rearing in The Gambia. Age and region were both repeated seen to be signi cant in all the variable.     CRR recorded a rise in the average annual temperature, severe weather events such as frequency in drought and ood, and a decrease in the annual average precipitation. Farmers' perceptions of drought, rainfall, and temperature in The Gambia were questioned, and some respondents religiously linked these variables to human actions, as shown in Figure 4. According to some livestock owners in one FGD, "Allah (God) is angry because of our bad deeds and actions that is why we are experience change in climate". They went on to say that there are many atrocities going on now in our society and this is against the teachings of the holy scriptures. Ashraf & Routray 2014 and Iqbal et al. 2018, found similar results in which some components were linked to religious beliefs. Religious belief is considered an essential factor in recognizing and reacting to natural hazards, according to Cooper et al. 2008. Others claim that natural disasters have historically been viewed as "acts of God" or exoteric powers against which mankind had no protection, and that religion and culture can affect interpretation more than experience in purely religious cultures (Fara 2001). This nding is similar with that of Lumborg et al. 2021, who reported that farmers argue that shrinking and degradation of grazing lands, as expressed by communities and animal health workers, is a major concern for Hamer pastoralists in terms of drought. Chi-square analysis test ( showed statistical association with livestock owner's perception of temperature and nally, only gender  (Table 4) shows that region of residence, age and occupation were the only demographic variable showed that there is a statistically signi cant association with all the questions asked on the impact of climate variability on animal husbandry. This nding suggests that livestock owners in The Gambia are well aware of the profound impact of climate variables on their livelihood.

Conclusion
In conclusion, this study indicates that livestock owners have a good understanding of climate variability changes and are conscious of climate change, based on their experiences and observations over the last three decades. Results showed that climate change is not a distant problem any longer and it is perceived by most of the livestock owners in The Gambia. Climate variability have been shown to have major economic consequences because they affect poor livestock owners' key economic activities in The Gambia. Reduced rainfall, frequent droughts, and rising temperatures have been identi ed as major challenges to cattle production due to their impact on pasture and water supply, as well as disease threats. Cattle malnutrition and disease outbreaks, both of which result in cattle deaths, as well as a decline in milk production and market price, are serious consequences faced by livestock owners in The Gambia. As a result, we recommend that an integrated early warning and preparedness policy be put in place to deal with the consequences of changes in climate variability on livestock development, and to also create public awareness and activism on changes of climate variability impacts and future adaptation and mitigation strategies. This can be achieved by institutionalizing an integrative approach involving the Meteorological Agency, climatologists, ecologists, epidemiologists, and veterinarians can be used to achieve these goals.

Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate This study was permitted by the Ethics Committee from the Ministry of Higher Education Science Research and Technology, The Gambia (reference number AFG 85/272/01) and a signed consent form was obtained from each participant in this study.

Not applicable
Availability of data and materials Will be made available upon request.

Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Funding
The study was funded by West African Climate Change and Adapted Land use program through the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.
Authors' contributions AK conceived the project idea. AK, HK and RK prepared the research instruments. AK, AB, EJ, AIA and MN collected all the necessary data, analyzed and drafted the manuscript. The study was guided and supervised by HK and RK. All co-authors reviewed and discussed the results, helped in the interpretation of the results, and contributed to the draft and nal manuscript. All authors read and approved the nal manuscript.       Livestock owner's perception of the effects of change in temperature, rainfall and drought on cattle rearing