Table1: African regional employment-to-population and employment growth rate (%)
|
2010-2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2010-2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
Africa
|
34.9
|
34.6
|
34.6
|
34.8
|
35.0
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
SSA
|
36.5
|
36.3
|
36.4
|
36.6
|
36.8
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
3.1
|
3.3
|
3.2
|
Central Africa
|
35.7
|
35.7
|
35.7
|
35.8
|
35.9
|
2.9
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
Eastern Africa
|
41.9
|
42.5
|
42.7
|
42.9
|
43.1
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
Northern Africa
|
28.3
|
27.5
|
27.1
|
27.0
|
26.9
|
0.9
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
Southern Africa
|
28.8
|
29.3
|
29.5
|
29.5
|
29.1
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
3.1
|
3.3
|
3.2
|
West Africa
|
32.4
|
30.8
|
30.9
|
31.2
|
31.5
|
1.5
|
1.0
|
3.0
|
3.8
|
3.7
|
Source: Computed from UN population estimates, Nov 2020 and ILO ILOSTAT Estimates, Nov 2020
Table 2: West Africa employment-to-population and employment growth rate (%)
|
Employment-to-population
|
|
|
|
Employment growth rate
|
|
|
2010-2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2010-2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
Benin
|
39.1
|
39.4
|
39.6
|
39.8
|
39.9
|
2.5
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
Burkina Faso
|
34.8
|
34.3
|
34.6
|
34.9
|
35.1
|
1.8
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
3.7
|
3.4
|
Cabo Verde
|
36.3
|
37.2
|
37.4
|
37.7
|
38.0
|
2.2
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
Côte d'Ivoire
|
31.0
|
31.1
|
30.1
|
30.2
|
30.3
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
-0.9
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
Gambia
|
29.4
|
29.8
|
30.0
|
30.1
|
30.2
|
3.5
|
3.4
|
3.4
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
Ghana
|
39.8
|
39.9
|
40.5
|
40.6
|
40.7
|
1.8
|
4.0
|
3.8
|
2.6
|
2.5
|
Guinea
|
32.6
|
32.8
|
33.0
|
33.1
|
33.3
|
2.5
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
3.4
|
3.4
|
Guinea Bissau
|
39.8
|
40.1
|
40.3
|
40.4
|
40.5
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
Liberia
|
42.3
|
43.3
|
43.4
|
43.6
|
43.8
|
3.1
|
4.3
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
Mali
|
34.5
|
33.9
|
33.7
|
33.8
|
33.9
|
3.1
|
2.3
|
2.4
|
3.4
|
3.4
|
Niger
|
37.6
|
35.9
|
35.9
|
36.0
|
36.0
|
2.3
|
3.9
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
Nigeria
|
30.5
|
27.6
|
27.8
|
28.3
|
28.8
|
0.9
|
-1.6
|
3.1
|
4.5
|
4.4
|
Senegal
|
24.2
|
24.1
|
24.2
|
24.3
|
24.4
|
2.2
|
3.1
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
Sierra Leone
|
32.4
|
32.4
|
32.5
|
32.7
|
32.8
|
1.6
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
2.6
|
Togo
|
33.4
|
33.4
|
33.2
|
33.3
|
33.4
|
3.1
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
West Africa
|
32.4
|
30.8
|
30.9
|
31.2
|
31.5
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
3.0
|
3.8
|
3.7
|
Source: Computed from UN population estimates, Nov 2020 and ILO ILOSTAT Estimates, Nov 2020
Table 3: Trade integration and economic growth (intra-regional trade among West African trade countries)
Dependent variable:
Log (real GDP per capita)
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
Log (real GDP per capita), previous period
|
0.986***
(0.0924)
|
1.228***
(0.1416)
|
0.923***
0.1882)
|
0.933***
(0.2927)
|
1.053***
(0.1702)
|
1.209**
(0.5101)
|
Secondary school enrollment
|
0.0001
(0.001)
|
-0.0031
(0.0020)
|
0.0009
(0.002)
|
0.0017
(0.004)
|
-0.0007
(0.0021)
|
-0.0024
(0.0063)
|
Investment (% of GDP)
|
0.0044
(0.0031)
|
-0.0018
(0.0022)
|
0.0039**
0.0016)
|
0.0019
(0.0016)
|
0.001
(0.0044)
|
0.0013
(0.0084)
|
Government consumption
(% of GDP)
|
-0.0036
(0.0023)
|
0.0080
(0.0057)
|
-0.0004
0.0069)
|
-0.0059
(0.0097)
|
0.0021
(0.0071)
|
-0.0004
(0.0082)
|
Inflation rate
|
0.0017*
(0.0008)
|
0.0023**
(0.0009)
|
0.0019**
(0.0008)
|
0.0015**
(0.0005)
|
0.004*
(0.0021)
|
0.0022
(0.0014)
|
Control of corruption
|
-0.0432*
(0.0202)
|
0.0673**
(0.0258)
|
-0.0222
(0.0629)
|
-0.0054
(0.0321)
|
-0.047
(0.1033)
|
-0.0569
(0.2149)
|
Trade Openness
|
0.108***
(0.0255)
|
0.123***
(0.0192)
|
0.083*
(0.0419)
|
0.0705***
(0.0705)
|
0.100*
(0.0513)
|
0.114*
(0.060)
|
Import
|
|
|
-0.0909
(0.1403)
|
0.0122
(0.1559)
|
|
|
Export
|
|
|
-0.0099
(0.022)
|
|
0.0159
(0.1117)
|
|
Trade Intensity Index
|
|
|
-0.017
(0.0229)
|
|
|
0.0168
(0.0146)
|
Overall MDRII index
|
|
-0.0070
(0.0154)
|
|
|
|
|
Constant
|
-0.390 (0.737)
|
-2.241*
(1.079)
|
0.17
1.507
|
0.2048
(2.281)
|
-0.875
(1.355)
|
-2.053
(3.848)
|
Import = Proportion of intraregional goods imports to total good imports; Export = Proportion of intraregional goods exports to total good exports; MDRII = multidimensional regional integration index.
Notes: standard error in parenthesis; ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.
Table 4: Trade integration and employment (intra-regional trade among West African countries)
Dependent variable:
Log (Employment)
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
Log (Employment),
previous period
|
0.871***
(0.240)
|
0.756** (0.244)
|
0.326 (0.315)
|
0.588*** (0.169)
|
0.512* (0.233)
|
0.697** (0.243)
|
Real GDP per capita
|
-0.001
(0.017)
|
-0.007 (0.016)
|
-0.0016 (0.010)
|
-0.0015 (0.015)
|
0.007 (0.013)
|
-0.030 (0.023)
|
Wage
|
0.0003* (0.0001)
|
0.0005*** (0.0001)
|
0.0001** (0.0007)
|
0.0003* (0.0001)
|
0.0003* (0.0001)
|
0.004** (0.002)
|
Trade
|
-0.0029 (0.006)
|
0.0009 (0.006)
|
-0.010 (0.007)
|
-0.002 (.0006)
|
-0.002 (0.005)
|
-0.008 (0.007)
|
Import
|
|
|
-0.004 (0.028)
|
-0.026* (0.019)
|
|
|
Export
|
|
|
-0.027 (0.021)
|
|
-0.027* (0.015)
|
|
Trade Intensity Index
|
|
|
-0.007* (0.003)
|
|
|
0.012 (0.006)
|
Overall MDRII index
|
|
-0.006** (0.002)
|
|
|
|
|
Constant
|
0.585 (1.228)
|
1.132 (1.207)
|
3.114 (1.476)
|
-1.858 (0.773)
|
2.159 (1.077)
|
1.617 (1.045)
|
Import = Proportion of intraregional goods imports to total good imports; Export = Proportion of intraregional goods exports to total good exports; MDRII = multidimensional regional integration index.
Notes: standard error in parenthesis; ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels.