Some Approaches To The Assessment of Over tourism in Mature Tourist Destinations

. The purpose of the article is to analyze approaches to assessing this phenomenon in mature tourist destinations. The article gives a detailed analysis of some publications. The authors focus on ﬁve types of problems associated with it: alienated local residents, a degraded tourist experience, overloaded infrastructure, damage to nature, and threat to culture and heritage. Diagnostics was developed which allows determining the level of risk of overcrowding by tourists in destinations. Some shortcomings of this methodology were pointed out in a study conducted by a number of authors (Peeters et al., 2018) for the European Parliament Committee on Transport and Tourism. The study focuses on the main indicators of overtourism. For regions or destinations wishing to assess the risk of overtourism, a check-list has been proposed to evaluate it. The authors of the joint study by the Austrian Hotelier Association ( ¨OHV) and the Roland Berger global consultancy ﬁrm (2018) divided measures to combat overtourism into proactive measures (when destinations plan their activities) and reactive measures (when cities are already experiencing problems with overtourism). In addition, a four-step sustainable tourism development plan has been developed. All authors agree that the lack of reliable statistics makes it difﬁcult to effectively identify the state of overtourism in destinations. Nevertheless, the planning and vigorous activity of all interested parties (business, government, society) will allow weakening the social, economic and environmental consequences of overtourism for mature tourist destinations.


INTRODUCTION
Globalization has embraced almost all spheres of modern life, including travel. Since the very beginning of its existence, tourism has been at the forefront of global trends. The industry became one of the forms of the process of turning the world into a single whole. Openness is one of the factors of rapid growth of the world tourism in recent decades. Experts believe that this process will continue.
Despite of the positive impact that the tourism industry has on economic activity, a significant increase in tourist flow is already the main cause of a number of problems in host destinations; the terms "overtourism" and "tourismphobia" are used to describe them.
The purpose of the article is to analyze approaches to assessing overtourism in mature tourist destinations. The tasks of the article: 1. To analyze studies of manifestations of overtourism; 2. To formulate some approaches to the assessment of overtourism in mature tourist destinations; 3. To summarize the recommendations of experts to reduce the negative impact of overtourism problems on host destinations.
Before starting to solve the set tasks, we will clarify the meaning of the terms "overtourism", "mature tourist destination", "approaches" and "assessment". World Tourism Organization considers overtourism as «the impact of tourism on a destination, or parts thereof, that excessively influences perceived quality of life of citizens and/or quality of visitors experiences in a negative way» [1] . But due to the complexity and multiplicity of this phenomenon, it is difficult to formulate its only comprehensive definition. It is only possible to study its basic characteristics as fully as possible.
In the management of a tourist destination, the basic concept is the life cycle of a destination. According to this concept, the destination goes through certain stages in the process of its development. The main criteria for changing one stage to another are: changes in the tourist flow, the attitude of local residents to tourists, the state of the tourist infrastructure and the environment. The mature stage of development of the destination is characterized by a tourist boom -the number of visitors often exceeds http://doi.org/10.21070/ijler.2020.V7.474 the local population several times. The load on the environment, infrastructure, including tourism, reaches a maximum; the residents of the destination are dissatisfied with the deteriorating living conditions more often.
Assessment is the determination of the significance of something for the researcher. Besides the latter, evaluation includes the object, character (absolute or comparative assessment) and approach; if any of these components are missing, there is no assessment.
An approach is a set of basic methods used in the study of an object in order to generalize or deepen its understanding. Conclusions, forecasts, and proposals are formulated based on observed and measured data about the object.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Today, world tourism is an increasing number of travelers annually. The forecast of 1.4 billion people by 2020 was already achieved in 2018 [2] . Almost half of the tourists visited the most popular cities on the planet. In the Old World, their number exceeded the local population by 1.5 times in 2017. Now about half of the inhabitants of the globe live in cities. It is estimated that by 2050 this figure will increase to 68 per cent [3] .
The unprecedented growth rate of tourism in the world has begun to take on alarming proportions. The problems caused by this process, called overtourism, have become the subject of study and exchange of views of all stakeholders related to the field of travel (UNWTO & WTM Ministers' summit, 2017; ITB Berlin, 2018, 2019). They are being actively discussed in the media and scientific publications. The materials of these studies present a wide variety of views on the overtourism problem and outline some approaches to the assessment of this phenomenon. Of course, the distinction between these approaches is quite conditional due to the fact that in any study, different characteristics of overtourism may be present at the same time. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish those of them that are of the most significant importance.
Apparently, the regional approach is priority. It is based on a description of the situation in many destinations due to the excessive influx of tourists, for example, in Barcelona, Iceland, Venice, Park Güell [4] . Today many destinations suffer from overcrowding: Prague and Budapest, Amsterdam and Dublin, Sardinia and Santorini, castles Neuschwanstein (Germany) and Stonehenge (England), the Moscow Kremlin Museums, the Hermitage and Catherine Palace in St. Petersburg and several other popular tourist destinations. Harold Goodwin states that overtourism is a situation in the destination where there are too many visitors. The tourists themselves feel a significant deterioration in their experience. Locals also understand that the excessive influx of visitors is a reason of declining in their quality of life [5] .
Maximillian Benner focuses on the negative conse-quences of the growth of tourist traffic for destinations: significant damage to the natural or cultural heritage; real estate speculation; privatization of premises intended for public access; increasing the cost of living for the local population [6] . Albert Postma and Dirk Schmuecker note a negative impact of the overtourism on the population of the destinations. Much attention is paid to the conflicts between residents and tourists -in the city center, shops, bars and restaurants, transport, cultural and recreational areas, etc. [7] . This view can be called a social approach to the assessment of overtourism. Ko Koens, Albert Postma and Bernadett Papp highlight the «excessive negative impact of tourism on host communities and the natural environment» [8] . Claudio Milano emphasizes expansion of tourism into urban areas and transformation of life [9] . Dalia Perkumiene and Rasa Pranskūniene indicate that the rights of the population are less protected than those of visitors [10] .
There is another approach to the assessment of overtourism -the need to manage resources and technology [11] . Guillaume Avond et. al talk about the importance of collaboration among professionals, all stakeholders in managing this phenomenon [12] .
A quantitative approach to the assessment of overtourism can be called the using of such indicators as the tourism share of GDP and employment; density of tourism; growth of number of arrivals and bed-nights; airport closeness and air transport intensity; Airbnb's share in the offer of accommodation facilities and a number of other indicators (Table 1). These data were obtained in the study of three researches:  [15] , covering 68 cities, notes that the authors' proposed diagnosis, which includes specific indicators, although not measuring the exact level of overcrowding in tourist destinations, may nevertheless help the latter to assess the risks of overtourism.
A Peeters research [13] indicates that above-stated experience is a good first attempt to make quantitative analysis of factors which affect the development of overtourism. However, it has some disadvantages  . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
• the list is limited to destinations with a perceived form of overtourism, which makes it impossible to compare these with destinations with no overtourism issues; • local statistics are often incomplete and difficult to compare; • the choice of indicators combining both causes of overtourism (e.g. visitor densities and growth) and the effects of overtourism (e.g. negative TripAdvisor reviews, low air quality) are not sufficiently significant (i.e. air transport seasonality).
The third study (ÖHV & Roland Berger, 2018) [14] focuses on two criteria: tourism density and value creation. The first one is the number of overnight stays (per year) in relation to number of inhabitants. We can observe the importance of such indicator in previous research (Peeters et al., 2018) [13] . The second one is «revenue per available room» (RevPAR) indicator. It reflects the price level for a major area of tourism, namely the organized accommodation sector, and is comparable among cities as well as being internationally accepted. After the analysis of the 52 best European cities, authors have identified seven measures to tackle overtourism and divided these into proactive and reactive approaches. The approach to assessing overtourism can be based on an analysis of the causes of this phenomenon. The study "Managing tourism growth in Europe" [16] focuses on aspects such as: • the availability of travel; • the concentration of large groups of tourists in destinations whose policy is only promoting them; • the growth of international arrivals; • urbanization.
The authors of the McKinsey research, in general, agree with the above factors. Much attention is paid on tourist overcrowding and its reasons: 1. affluence. The Visa company projects that by 2025 more than 280 million households will be travelling internationally each year. India and China alone will create more than 900 million new members of the global middle and upper classes between 2015 and 2025; 2. demographic shifts. Today millennials (generation defined as those born between the early 1980s and the end of 1990s) are the majority of travelers in the world. They are more likely than previous generations to use social media and technology; • convenience and awareness. The use of online travel research and booking tools is opening new opportunities and destinations. Rating and review sites, destination rankings and other channels are creating and reinforcing interest in travel, particularly to top destinations and the most popular sites.
In all of the studies reviewed above, recommendations to overcome overtourism are made, which can be considered as another approach to its assessment (Table 2). Overtourism is a global problem today. Experts believe that in the future it will only worsen. Therefore, further study of this phenomenon, and especially, development of optimal indicators for assessing it, is necessary. CONCLUSION 1. In each study reviewed, there is the importance of the overtourism problem for popular tourist destinations and the need to develop methods for its assessment; 2. According to the results of the analysis of the considered publications, the author of this article offers the following classification of approaches to the assessment of overtourism in mature tourist destinations: • regional; • devastating; • social; • administrative; • quantitative.
1. Characterizing the causes of overtourism may also be considered as an approach to assessing this phenomenon. To make systematic research on the problem of overtourism (including rural, coastal destinations, islands, natural and cultural sites) Peeters 2 To initiate data collection on the number of tourists and one-day visitors Peeters; McKinsey 3 To support monitoring the moods of both tourists and inhabitants in order to have an early warning of the psychological and social forms of overtourism developing; to involve all stakeholders in tourism planning and development To adjust pricing to balance supply and demand McKinsey 8 To limit access and activities McKinsey:ÖHV 9 To regulate accommodation supply McKinseyÖHV 10 To encourage creation of a cross-EU «Task Force on overtourism» Peeters