The Influence of Macroeconomics Indicators to The Growth of Sukuk in Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of macroeconomic on the growth of Islamic bonds (sukuk) in Indonesia period 2013.1-2016.12. This study uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method with a monthly time series starting from January 2013 until December 2016. The results of this study indicate that the Production Index (IP) and Bank Indonesia Syariah Certificate (BSBIS) variables positively and significantly affect the development of state sukuk issuance in Indonesia, then inflation negatively and significantly affects the development of state sukuk issuance, while the JII variable negatively and does not significantly affect the development of state sukuk issuance in Indonesia.


INTRODUCTION
The rapidly changing world economic growth causes many changes in many sides of life, one of them is the growth in sharia financial system. Financial Services Authority/Otoritas Jasa Keuangan once told that sharia financial system has very well potential to keep growing that its indirect influence contributes to Indonesia's economy. In this modern era, sharia financial system institutions can be source to economics power due to its traits proved during World Financial Crisis, sharia financial system survived from the bankruptcy. The performers of sharia financial system are four main sectors consists of bank (Sharia General Due to its issuance, sharia capital market divided to three products, sharia mutual fund, sharia bond (sukuk), sharia stock. Sukuk, or mostly known as sharia bond, etimologically born from the word shakk which means contract document or ownership proof. In its process, sukuk shows the ownership of assets, in this case, economics activities don't measured by cash (loan). Based on its type, sukuk divided into two, corporation sukuk and state sukuk (SBSN). Ardiansyah & Lubis (2017 :51) stated that instead of state sukuk, corporation sukuk published by companies tend to have higher risk of yield default and has bigger corporation's main financing. Moreover, corporation sukuk more susceptible in influencing the economics due to its original issuance from corporation that if they keeps operating and has the ability to pay the promised cash flow then they will gain huge profit, but, counter-clockwise, if the company bankrupt then the investors will gain more loss than state sukuk. Here's the data that shows the growth of sukuk in Indonesia. EQUILIBRIUM, Volume 8, Nomor 1, 2020

LITERATURE REVIEW
This research discusses about the source of state's income besides tax in the form of investment product, sharia bond. Where a state's investment is highly affected by its economics condition. The better the economics condition, then, the better its investment rate.
Production index is one of the macroeconomic variables used in this research to see its effect to the growth of sukuk issuance in Indonesia. The positive and significant correlation between PI and sukuk issuance, that PI is alternative variable for GDP, thus, the increasing of PI which means that it can be said that the increasing of GDP ratio will also increase people's economics condition affected to the increasing of investment climate and next, increasing the growth of sukuk issuance.
According to Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS/Badan Pusat Statistik), inflation is a condition where the value of goods and services' price level in economics increasing, Consumer's Price Index can be used as benchmark of the growth of goods and services and inflation also affects how big or small the produced goods are. This result is not appropriate to the theory where the higher the inflation rate, the higher people's tendency to increase their investment. But, this result is linear to researches by (Elkarim, 2012) and (Manab, 2016), where inflation negatively and insignificantly affects the issuance of sukuk, i.e people's tendency to invest will decrease through the increasing of inflation, vice-versa.  (Sanjaya, n.d.), namely that the influential SBIS bonus in a positive and significant in influencing the development of the issuance of sukuk.

Bonus of Sharia Certificate
JII is one of the stock indexes in Indonesia which is used to calculate the average price index of stocks suitable to Islamic criteria. JII is another product of the capital market which is used as a performance measurement tool Sharia capital market in Indonesia. Furthermore JII created as guarantor and guide for investors who want to invest their Fund in Shariah-compliant way without the worry of mix by ribawi fund and became a benchmark in assessing the performance of a portfolio of stocks that comply with Sharia principles. However, JII variable shows negative influence and not significant to the development of the issuance of sukuk. It also implies that the JII is a product of Islamic capital market in the form of stock that serves as a direct substitution of the sukuk. Where when there's decline in the people's interest towards the stock then simultaneously will create increased people's interest in investing sukuk.

Methods of analysis used in this research is descriptive and empirical
quantitative (Descriptive and Empirical Quantitative Method) using secondary data and conduct statistical tests. The descriptive method is based on the study of librarianship and the study of literature such as journals, paper, and related statistical analysis of this research. While quantitative empirical research undertaken to explain that this research is based on the calculation of econometrics, statistical tests, and economics test in the model. In the process of collecting, inputting, and processing data using several applications such as This research uses some of the tests to view influence between variables such as Autocorrelation Test, Multicollinearity Test, Heteroskedasticity Test, Coefficient of Determination (R2), T Significance Test, and F Significance Test. From the regression test results above, obtained that VIF value is less than 10 or VIF (3.52 < 10) as well as value 1/VIF is more than 0.1, then it can be said that there is no multicollinearity problem in the model. From the test results obtained that value prob > chi2 is greater than alpha or 0.0144 > 0.01%. So that it can be summed up with a level of significance of 1% that there is no autocorrelation problem in the model.  able to explain the variansi of development of sukuk issuance and the rest of 11.9% is explained by variables outside of the model that is not examined.  Based on the research conducted, retrieved results that economic growth in the Production Index interpreted significantly positive effect on the development of the issuance of sukuk in Indonesia. This is due to that the better the condition of the economy will have an impact on the improvement in the condition of people's income and at the same time can create people's interest in investing.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Inflation negatively and insignificantly influences to the development of the sukuk issuance in Indonesia. This is due to when a country experiences inflation, then automatically the price of goods and services are highly increases and makes the community should provide more money to get the goods and interest for investment decreases. SBIS Bonus positively and significantly effects on the development of the sukuk issuance in Indonesia.
JII negatively and significantly effects on the development of the sukuk issuance in Indonesia. This is due to JII as the other part of the Sharia capital market products in the form of stock that became a direct substitution for sukuk.