Historical Analysis of Flood Information and Impacts Assessment and Associated Response in Pakistan (1947-2011)

The present research is an attempt to present a brief historical analysis of dreadful impacts of floods caused by enormous floods frequently occurring in Pakistan most of which resulted in serious monetary damage and fatalities. The study also examines the extent of previous work done in this field. The aftermaths of severe floods in all over the Pakistan on different aspects were assessed quantitatively of last 65 years (1947-2011) by extensive and thorough review of valid literature. Since its creation, Pakistan has faced about 38 floods of various magnitudes among of which about 50% were considered major floods including 1950, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1988, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010 and now 2011. This is first time that an attempt has been made to determine comprehensive details of impacts of floods in Pakistan through out of its history. Recommendations have been made to ensure adequate and detailed availability of flooding event and to prevent huge damages in the future.


INTRODUCTION
Floods defined as "inundation of an area adjacent to a river or lake, which causes material loss, adversely affects human health, or results in people dead. Inundation of an area, which does not cause serious damage, is associated with the water level rise in a river or lake" (Dobrovol'Skii and Istomina, 2009) are among the most damaging natural hazards in the world, affecting more lives and resulting in more property damage than any other disaster (Brasdil et al., 2006;Ghoneim and Foody, 2011) and one of the most threatening natural hazards for the human societies (Schanze, 2006). Floods and other climate related natural disasters have been increasing not only by repeated damage but also by the intensity and frequency (Bernhofer et al., 2006).
Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural hazards worldwide (Ahmad et al., 2011) and is exposed to several hazards such as floods, earthquake, landslides and droughts, but floods has been most common issue causing immense damages to lives and properties (Atta-ur-Rahman and Khan, 2011a;Atta-ur-Rahman et al., 2011b).
Pakistan has varying geography with Northern alpine enclosed with glaciers and Sothern plains along with the Arabian Sea. The five major rivers Indus and its tributaries, Jhelum, Chenab, Sutlej and Ravi are flowing through in Pakistan from south to north parts (Hashmi et al., 2012a).
The frequency of damages of urban flood is increasing with the investment and growth in urban areas. Flash floods that happen in natural stream as a consequence of localized extreme rains in hills and semi hilly areas have really shown their potential of damage in the few previous years in the Pakistan (Hashmi et al., 2012b).
The chief cause of continuity of floods in Pakistan is heavy intense rainfall in the river catchments that is occasionally increased by the snowmelt flows that final result into floods particularly in the season of monsoon. Sporadically monsoon currents initiating in the Bay of Bengal result in destructive and harsh floods in some or mostly all the river of Indus system (FFC, 2010;Hashmi et al., 2012a).
Soon after its creation in the 1947, Pakistan realized the need for having an early flood warning and forecasting systems due to continuous floods in the country. An entirely fledged Flood Forecasting System (FFS) was established after the Pakistan suffered a catastrophic flood in 1976. The system was further developed after exploring weaknesses and learning experience from the severe floods in 1990s. The system got improvements with the passage of time and now it has turned into adequately inclusive; but still, it requires further concrete efforts to build it more efficient and self-contained (Dorosh et al., 2010).
This study mainly aims to primarily focus on quantitative and qualitative assessment of floods impacts on various factors in Pakistan, covering the period of . This study is also directed towards identifying the areas affected by floods and determining the impacts of floods on people, agriculture, livestock, houses, economy, villages in Pakistan. This attempt has been made also to evaluate the extent of previous researches carried out on floods impact in Pakistan.

METHODOLOGY
The research conducted reviews the wide and extensive literatures in order to explain and demonstrate the impacts of floods in all over the Pakistan. The thorough study of valid existing information also involved the evaluation of numerous methods used to mitigate the flood impacts, warning of floods and forecasting. About 200 published studies have been reviewed since creation of Pakistan till recent  for determination of impact on human mortality, livestock, crops, houses, villages, property while the numbers of people affected by the floods and areas influenced by the particular flood are also considered. Brief literature review that provided descriptions of the country's geography and its relation to flood characteristics, causes and consequences of floods in Pakistan were generally reviewed in order to help clarify. References from other countries have also been incorporated which supported more specific findings on the effects of floods on human population that resulted in large scale of causalities (Boughton and Droop, 2003). Zakaullah et al. (2012) highlighted the analysis of flood frequencies of homogeneous regions of the Jhelum River basin. The study had covered the Northeast area of Pakistan up to the Mangla Dam. Maximum annual flow data for fifteen gauging stations was gathered. For flood frequency analysis, Design Flood for Window (DFW) software was used while MINITAB-11 was used for multiple linear regression analysis. Application of Chi-square was considered best for Gumbel distribution. Zainudini et al. (2011) deliberated the use of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves of rainfall that provide the rainfall intensity of various lengths and reappearance intervals. Curves were reported to be used by the engineers for the creation of risk assessment design of systems flood plain management, dams, bridges, storage structures, storm sewers and runoff canals etc. These curves were also used as a tool of prediction which identified the likelihood. Several durations were presented and developed by IDF curves via rainfall data from Balochistan and Sistan. Results were compared with the data examined by countries and were possible and could potentially be beneficial for the purpose of design. Mustafa (2002) determined the outcomes based on the survey that was conducted in four villages situated in central Punjab concerning public's perception and thought about issues regarding flood and irrigation. In this research, methodology of perception studies was used. It was shown by log-linear evaluation of survey data that well informed vis-à-vis social power differences and relation between diverse social issues and susceptible to flooding. Khan et al. (2011) estimated the flood risks of the Indus river basin using historical data of annual flood peak discharges for the purpose of risk assessment. River Jhelum, River Kabul, River Chenab and lower and upper parts of the Indus River were reported chief sources of floods in Pakistan. River Indus system, which is considered Pakistan's largest and the world's most important system encompassing a number of barrages and seven gauge stations was stated to have greater role in country's power production and irrigation system. The results found need estimation for construction of more dams and barrages and necessity to update them. Baig et al. (2012) elaborated influence of 2010 floods on environmental sanitation and drinking water quality in about 82 regions of Pakistan. As a result, various water relief and rehabilitation programs were launched by numerous humanitarian organizations in the areas severely affected. One hundred samples of drinking water were collected randomly and their quality was examined by the field standard method. Microbiological analysis of water indicated the presence of E. coli bacteria abundantly. Chemical and physical parameters (such as PH, turbidity) of water were within WHO standards. Results found the considerable change in people's demands and perception about emergency management and relief activities. Bhatti et al. (2011) appraised the impacts of floods in rural Sindh. The simple random technique was used and data were gathered from 5000 households of six districts named as Jacobbabad, Larkana, Dadu, Shahdadkot, Shikarpur and kashmore. Structural questionnaire was designed as an instrumental tool to measure and determine the poverty. Among all six districts, the worst poverty situation was found in the Shikarpur and Jacobabad districts. Other elements like tribal conflicts and poor law and order situation in Jacobbabad and Shikarpur enforced people to shift out their business. Literacy rate and Health facilities were also found in bad condition in Jacobabad, while other districts had petite differed. It was noticed that poverty level was increased as recent flood caused destruction of several livestock and crops and directly affected the common man. Gaurav et al. (2011) analyzed the efficiency of using remote sensing data to weigh the extent of Indus flood of 2010 in Pakistan. The reason of 2010 flood was heavy rainfall between July and September that led to intensify this disaster. Human intervention was also considered as another causative factor for exaggerating this disaster. Accumulation of flow was analyzed by using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission STRM data which highlighted the reaches, exceedingly vulnerable to breaches. It was recommended to establish mitigation strategies and identify vulnerable areas.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Akhtar (2011) pondered the nature and relationship of South Asiatic monsoon and manifestation of flood hazards in Indus River Basin of Pakistan. Floods were reported to affect about 75 million people while killing 20,000 individuals annually due to human encroachment in flood vulnerable areas. Several flood hazards are faced by Pakistan periodically. The flood of 2010 was the worst flood disaster Pakistan has ever faced in its history which subjected all over Pakistan to distressing impacts.
Habib-ur-Rehman et al. (2012) conducted a research on the analysis of flood estimation by using Geographic Information System (GIS). The research reported that there is lack of flow data of hydraulic structures. It was determined that connection for the site could be developed for the site by constructing assessing stations at downstream and upstream of the certain dam site. Empirical equations were launched in the upper locations of Chenab River. Watershed arrays and average flow of river was measured by digital evaluation model, using GIS software. The equations showed peak floods in considerable order of accuracy. These equations were applicable for specific regions, therefore their use for other parts required Preferences.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been remained a highly prone country to natural disasters particularly floods throughout of its history. Pakistan has faced approximately 38 floods of varying intensities almost in every decade (        influenced 13 approximately, followed by the Sindh where 12 flooding events have been taken place till now. Punjab and KPK have been remained most vulnerable to floods and their resulting impacts as compared to the other regions of the country.

Fatalities:
In the history of Pakistan, floods caused deaths on gigantic levels ( Fig. 3 and 4) Fatalities 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 6 1 9 5 7 1 9 5 8 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 8 1   Agriculture: Agriculture sector is severely affected by floods in Pakistan that further lead to interrelated damages (Fig. 6). Data found of initial decades was insufficient. Largest damage in agriculture sector occurred in the decade of 1990's followed by 2000s. Maximum loss of crops was resulted from 2010 floods. Second most damaging flood causing large level of destruction in the agriculture sector was the flood of 1996. After that the flood of 1994 caused huge level of loss in terms of agricultural damage. Houses damaged: Several disastrous floods have been affecting and damaging infrastructure including houses since Pakistan came into being (Fig. 10). Maximum numbers of houses were damage in the decade of 1970's. Second most dreadful decade of flood which Property damage: Pakistan has been suffering from serious losses by the serious aftermaths of floods that occur frequently in the country (Fig. 11 and 12).

CONCLUSION
Since its creation, Pakistan (having an area of 796,095 km 2 ) has been suffering from number of shattering flooding events leaving long term consequences on its victims most of whom loss their lives, property, livestock, shelter and agricultural lands etc. To obtain first objective, data was collected from the power resources in the form of published literature. It was found that North east areas of Pakistan remained most affected which include mainly Punjab and KPK. Least flood affected province is Balochistan. Reviewing the literature to obtain second objective found that flood impacts in all parts of the Pakistan have not been recorded adequately due to lack of accessibility. Previous works on this field rely mostly on the latest floods while leaving initial floods unrecovered since Pakistan's independence. Data about the impacts of floods of 21 st century on people, livestock and country's economy is comparatively more than the 20 th century. Thorough study to obtain 3 rd objective found that maximum people were died in the flood of 1950, maximum people were affected by the floods of 2010, maximum agricultural area was severely affected in the flood of 2010, maximum villages were affected in 1976 flood, maximum livestock damage was seen in the flood of 2010, maximum houses were destroyed in the flood of 1976 and maximum economic loss was noticed in the flood of 2010. The factors that lead to these devastating floods require to be tackled by the establishments of Pakistan. 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 6 1 9 5 7 1 9 5 8 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 8 1 9 5 9 Years 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 0 Property damage 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 9 9 4 Years 7500 1500 3000 4500 9000 10500 6000