CEREAL IMPORT AND CONSUMPTION PATTERNS IN NEPAL – ANALYSIS OF RICE, WHEAT, MAIZE, AND MILLET: A REVIEW

This article examines the import and consumption patterns of four major cereal crops in Nepal, namely rice, wheat, maize, and millet. Using data from various sources, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and scholarly publications, we analyze the quantities of these cereals imported into Nepal, their major sources, and the factors driving import trends. We also explore the consumption patterns of these cereals, considering factors such as regional variations, seasonality, and cultural preferences. Finally, we discuss the challenges and opportunities associated with cereal import and consumption in Nepal, highlighting the significance of this issue for the country's food security and overall well-being. Our findings suggest that Nepal remains heavily dependent on cereal imports to meet domestic demand, and that the consumption patterns of these cereals vary considerably across the country. We conclude with some policy implications and recommendations for enhancing Nepal's cereal industry, promoting self-sufficiency in cereal production, and improving the nutritional status of its population.


RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Rice consumption demand is getting high as a huge non rice consuming community is also shifting to rice consuming. From 1990/91 to till 20221/22, the gross national production of paddy is increased by nearly 150%. Additionally, during the civil war period from 1996 to 2006 there was a massive movement from village to town area in search of security and peace. 1.8 million of people migrated in those ten years (Mosaic, 2017). Due to the labor shortage the agriculture land were left barren and uncultivated which had a direct impact on Nepalese economy (Lokendra, 2019). The shift from rural to urban areas has impacted crop cultivation in Nepal, with many people abandoning their traditional practices in favor of modern lifestyles. As a result, there has been a significant shift in food habits, with rice becoming a more popular choice than traditional crops like millet and maize. While there have been many advances in the development of new rice varieties in recent years, the demand for this staple food remains high in Nepal, particularly in the mountainous and Himalayan regions where food culture is rapidly changing. To meet this demand, imports of rice have been increasing steadily in recent years, with major importing countries including India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Japan, and Myanmar. Despite the increase in rice imports, however, there is still a need to improve local cultivation practices to ensure that the demand for this vital food source can be met sustainably in the long term (MoALD, 2023; NRB, 2021). In the figure there is a quadratic model between the import weight of rice and price, meaning that the price of rice is increasing as the demand is increasing (NRB, 2021). The rice import quantity and value is increasing at the rate of 24.48% and 38.11% while population growth is 1.68% (Choudhary et al., 2021).
The increasing demand for rice in Nepal has resulted in a situation where local production is unable to meet the country's needs, leading to a reliance on imports. While there have been significant improvements in the development of new rice varieties, the production of rice locally is still insufficient to meet the rising demand. This can be attributed in part to the migration of people from rural to urban areas, which has led to a decline in traditional agricultural practices. Moreover, unpredictable weather patterns and natural disasters can further exacerbate the shortage of rice production. In such scenarios, there is a lack of proper management of food items during disaster management, which can result in severe food shortages and hunger. This highlights the need for better disaster management strategies that consider the importance of food security and the need for sustainable agricultural practices. To address the gap between demand and supply of rice in Nepal, it is crucial to promote sustainable agriculture practices and encourage farmers to cultivate a diverse range of crops. This can help reduce the country's reliance on rice as the primary food source, which in turn can help ensure greater food security. Additionally, there is a need to improve local storage and distribution systems to ensure that food reaches those who need it most during times of scarcity. In conclusion, the increasing demand for rice in Nepal has led to a situation where local production is unable to meet the needs of the country. This has resulted in a reliance on imports, which can be unsustainable in the long run. To ensure greater food security, it is crucial to promote sustainable agricultural practices, improve local storage and distribution systems, and develop better disaster management strategies that prioritize the importance of food security.   Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in Nepal, and it is widely consumed throughout the country. However, Nepal is not self-sufficient in wheat production, and the 11 country relies heavily on imports to meet its domestic demand. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Nepal imported a total of 1,760,000 metric tons of wheat in 2020, up from 1,620,000 metric tons in 2019 (FAOSTAT, 2021). Further, as for sources of wheat imports, it is reported that Nepal imports wheat mainly from India and sometimes from other countries like Russia, Ukraine, and Australia (Adhikari, 2021). The majority of wheat imports to Nepal come from India, which shares a long land border with Nepal. In recent years, there have been some disruptions to wheat trade between the two countries due to political tensions and border closures. Wheat imports from other countries, such as Australia and Canada, have also increased in recent years as Nepal seeks to diversify its sources of wheat (Adhikari, 2021).
There are a number of factors that contribute to Nepal's reliance on wheat imports. These include low levels of wheat productivity, limited availability of land suitable for wheat cultivation, and a lack of investment in agricultural research and development (Bista et al., 2013;Rasul 2016). In addition, changing dietary habits and increasing urbanization have led to a shift away from traditional cereal crops like maize and millet, and towards more wheatbased diets (Dixon et al., 2020). Wheat production in Nepal has increased slightly over the past decade, from 1.56 million metric tons in 2010 to 1.72 million metric tons in 2020. However, this level of production is still not sufficient to meet the country's domestic demand, which has led to increasing imports of wheat over the same period. Further, the price of wheat imports can be volatile and is influenced by factors such as global supply and demand, transportation costs, and currency exchange rates. In 2020, the average price of wheat imports to Nepal was around $263 per metric ton (FAOSTAT, 2021).
Despite the challenges associated with wheat production in Nepal, there are efforts underway to increase domestic production and reduce the country's reliance on imports. For example, the government of Nepal has implemented a number of policies aimed at promoting domestic wheat production, including subsidies for fertilizer and seed, as well as investments in irrigation and other agricultural infrastructure (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, 2022). In addition, there are a number of ongoing research projects aimed at improving wheat productivity and developing new wheat varieties that are better adapted to local conditions (Bista et al., 2013). Despite these efforts, wheat imports are likely to remain a significant part of Nepal's food system in the foreseeable future . Wheat is a major staple food in Nepal, with a long history of consumption. It is the second most consumed cereal after rice, and its per capita consumption has been steadily increasing over the past decade (Kumar et  partly due to the greater availability of wheat-based products in urban areas and the perception that these products are more modern and desirable (Angdembe et al., 2019; Dixon et al., 2020). However, there is growing concern about the potential health impacts of excessive wheat consumption, particularly as it has been linked to non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and obesity (Gyawali et al., 2015). To address this issue, some researchers have suggested promoting the consumption of traditional Nepalese cereals such as finger millet and buckwheat as a more sustainable and healthier alternative to wheat   while wheat remains an important part of the Nepalese diet, there is a need to diversify the consumption of cereals for both health and sustainability reasons. This includes promoting the consumption of traditional cereals and improving the availability and quality of domestic wheat products, as well as addressing broader socio-economic and cultural factors that influence dietary choices (Campbell et al., 2014). Further research is needed to explore the potential health and environmental benefits of promoting alternative cereal consumption in Nepal. Maize (Zea mays), is the major staple cereal crops cultivated universally in terms of production volume and traded crops after wheat (Erenstein et al., 2022). Maize production contributes to food security and plays a major role in promoting the transformation in global agrifood system (Grote et al., 2021). Agriculture is central to the national economy of Nepal where 60.4% population are engaged on it (MoALD, 2020/21). In context of Nepal, the contribution of agriculture to national GDP is 25.8% with an increment rate of 2.64% per year (AITC, 2020/21). Cereal crop shares about 8.24% of national GDP (MoALD, 2020/21) thus ensuring the food and nutritional security of Nepal. Rice, maize and wheat mainly come up with the better production performance of cereal crops where maize ranks secondly after rice with 6.83% contribution in agriculture GDP in the fiscal year 2020/21.
Maize contributes 12% to the global production of primary crops in 2020 with 1.2 billion tonnes production (FAO, 2021), whereas in Nepal maize is cultivated under the area of 97976 ha with a total production of 2999733 tons. Comparatively yield of maize production in Nepal is less than global record due to inadequate supply and inefficient use of inputs, disease infestation and poor crop management practices. Agriculture economic growth is slowing sharply with reduction in yield, marketing and profitability (Sapkota et al., 2018). The annual growth rate for the demand of maize is 5% over the past decades which indicates high possibility of import of maize if its production remain constant/reduced (Sapkota & Pokhrel, 2013). There is a gap between the production and satisfaction of consumers demand and this may be due to the lack of research and problems in seed production sector, supply of quality seeds (Khanal et al., 2020).
Maize as a crop has multiple uses and mainly grown for human consumption, livestock and poultry feed, seed and food (Kandel et  more than 86% maize production has been utilized for human consumption in the hills and 80% production of Terai for livestock feed 10% each for human consumption and industries. Moreover, in the hills and mid-hills 60% of maize grains is used for animal feed, 25% for food, and 3% for seed while remaining 12% of its production was marketed (Ghimire et al., 2019).  Murdia et al. (2016) overlook the health benefits of the maize consumption and identified as the important ingredient in diet of the people. Maize has many benefits such as prevents constipation, lung cancer, age related vision loss, also boost memory, maintain normal growth, kidney function and bone health, regulates heart rate, lowers cholesterol, diabetes and hypertension. Therefore, these benefits may highlight the increasing interest of consuming more quantity of micronutrient and protein rich food in the recent daily diet of the people in comparison to the past years (Timsina et al., 2016).
Above table 5   Maize is the second most grown cereal crop in both sub-tropical to cool temperate climate (Thapa, 2021). Since, the area and production is found to be increased since 2015-2021 but still lacking to meet the demand growth (Dhakal et al., 2022). Small and fragmented land, limited use of improved technologies, unavailability of hybrid maize varieties, inadequate use of quality fertilizer contribute to food insecurity and challenges to the production (Gairhe et al., 2018;Kandel, 2021) where climate also acts as a crucial role in determining the production and productivity of the crops (Sarkar, 2014). The amount of maize seed imported was 12537809 kg with the import value of Rs 851618 in the year 2020/21 (MoALD, 2020/21) The total seed requirement of maize in the fiscal year 077/78 was 23941 metric tons but the seed supply was only 3210 metric tons with the seed replacement rate 13.41% (SQCC, 2021). This 13.41% also reflects lack of improved seed supply to the farmers which is comparatively low to the neighboring nation as mentioned in the study (Adhikari et al., 2019).
Nepal"s agro-food imports is quite at frightening situation with worth Nepali Rs. 243 billion in the 2020 fiscal year (Adhikari et al., 2021). In Nepal trade deficit amounted to around 14.21 billion U.S. dollars (MOF, 2021).Nepal mainly depends on India and China imports to meet the domestic demand (Giri et al., 2017). India becomes the highest trading partners by both volume and valued followed by China, Bangladesh, USA and SAARC region. However, a positive balance of trade is observed with Bangladesh.
There is increase in need of livestock and poultry feed with the establishment of feed industries which requires high proportion of maize produced in the country (Ghimire et al., 2019). Katel et al. (2020) reported that there is requirement of 6.46 million mt feed to run the existing poultry industries in Nepal. Therefore has to depend on imports despite of increase in the production and productivity (Khadka, 2021). Moreover, feed industries prefer high quality maize even though it is expensive than the local maize which eventually increases relies on import from neighbor countries (Singh et al., 2019). According to Ghimire et al. (2019), annual growth rate of maize import was 30.5% in the recent years. The import data given in the figure 5, state that there is a yield gap between the demand and supply (Khadka, 2021). Nepal rank 108 th position out of 141 Global Competitive Index which determine poor export performance.
Besides the constraints in production and heavily dependency on the other countries, Nepal has high potential to increase maize production by adopting the improved technologies and uplift export performance. Value added products of maize have great potential in the domestic as well as global market. Development, value addition and commercialization of maize products in required time and quantity can meet the internal consumption.
Millet gets its name from the French word "mille," which means "thousand," and a handful of millet can contain up to 1000 grains (Shahidi & Chandrasekara, 2013). Millet refers to a group of small-grained, warm-weather annual cereals in the grass family. These crops are naturally drought tolerant. Millet is widely grown for food and fodder all over the world. Millets are important crops in semiarid tropical areas and are native to many parts of the world. Millets have been a staple in parts of Asia and Africa for centuries (Wadmare, et al., 2022) higher resistance to pests and diseases, good adaptability to a wide range of environments, and good yield, millets are important but underutilized crops in tropical and semiarid regions of the world. Additionally, they have a short growing season, can withstand high salinity, can withstand drought, require few inputs during growth, and are significant crops for feeding a growing global population and diminishing water resources (Seetharam, et al., 1990). Finger millet's potent antioxidant potential and enhanced signal perception may be responsible for its resistance to droughts. Finger millet can be grown in challenging conditions due to its hardiness without significantly affecting its general productivity. In developing countries, millet grains have a great deal of potential for processing into foods and beverages with added value. Additionally, since millets don't contain gluten, they are suggested for people with stomach (abdominal) conditions (Wadmare, et al., 2022).  Kabra millet 167 900-1900-meter area of mid-hills 4.
Sailing millet 155 1300-2200-meter area from the western too far western area of hills and high hills.

5.
Kabra millet 153 700-1800-meter area from the western too far western area of hills and high hills.
One of the most significant small grains, finger millet [Eleusine coracana (L.)] is an annual herbaceous plant that is tetraploid (2n=4x=36 AABB) and evolved from a natural cross between Eleusine indica (AA) and Eleusine floccifolia or Eleusine tristachya (BB). It is also known as Ragi or Mandua (Varsha et al., 2009;Jagati et al., 2021). The seed head, which resembles human fingers, is where the name of the plant comes from. After sorghum, pearl millet, and foxtail millet, the crop is currently ranked fourth in importance among the millets on a global scale. It is grown in more than 25 nations, mostly in Asia (India, Nepal, Malaysia, China, Japan, Iran, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka) and Africa (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Senegal, Niger, Nigeria, and Madagascar) (Chethan & Malleshi, 2007). The fourth-largest crop in Nepal plays a significant role in the country's agriculture, particularly in the mountainous remote regions where they serve as important, stable food crops for low-income communities with subsistence farming systems (Dharmaraj & Malleshi, 2011). It matures in between 100 and 130 days and is better adapted to acidic soils in areas with higher rainfall (600 to 1,200 mm). One of this millet's key characteristics is its adaptability to various agro climatic conditions, which contributes it to have the highest productivity among all millets. The crop has a C4 photosynthetic pathway, which allows it to withstand a variety of abiotic stress conditions (Bastola et al. 2015;Opole et al. 2018). Grain is grown between February and August, with the harvest taking place in either June or January. Finger millet grains are grown in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and the Indian Himalayan regions (Adhikari, 2012;Jideani, 2012). Along with South Carolina in the US, the grain is also grown in Taiwan, China, and (to a lesser extent) Japan (Mathur, 2012). It is primarily grown in mid-mountainous regions and is regarded as a neglected, underutilized crop of the poor (Luitel, et al., 2020). Finger millet is considered a poor man's crop because of its long-lasting strength and ability to be stored safely for many years without being infested by insects or other pests.
Finger millet has a high nutritional content, especially for calcium, iron, and manganese as well as essential amino acids, and is significantly rich in protein, dietary fiber, minerals, and micronutrients such as riboflavin, thiamine, leucine, isoleucine and trypsine inhibitory factors (Jagati, et al., 2021). Because they are less susceptible to pests, they can be stored for longer (Gull et al. 2015), and are crucial for the food and nutritional security of the regions where they are grown (Luitel, et al., 2019). Additionally, finger millet has numerous medicinal qualities, including hypoglycemic, hypo cholesterolemic, and anti-ulcerative effects and antioxidant properties (Chamoli, et al., 2018). Now that it has been abandoned and underutilized, finger millet is emerging as a crop with significant potential for use in functional foods and high-value health foods (Dhami, et al., 2019). Despite the many advantages of underutilized crops, production and productivity are not rising due to numerous obstacles. Compared to other cereals, these crops require more labor during the transplanting, weeding, harvesting, threshing, and grinding processes. Additionally, the crop is regarded as "food of marginalized communities" or "low status food". There is a lack of knowledge among the populace regarding the nutritional value and health advantages of these crops (Gautam & Subedi, 2022). In the hills of Nepal, finger millet has the potential to enhance resource management while also serving as a staple food, weaning food, or a cash crop that offers opportunities for income generation (Raj, 2012). The table shows an increasing trend of millet export in Nepal. A sharp increase in the import of millet was seen between the years 2018 to 2019. A large amount of millet imported from India goes for making liquor while only a small amount goes for consumption as food and feed. The import value of millet to Nepal has been increasing at 14.62% per annum (Gairhe et al, 2021). On the other hand, the export of millet has been decreasing over the years. The highest export was seen in the year 2018-2019 with a sharp decline in just another year. Table 9 -Area production and Yield of different cereals crops (Gyawali, 2021) The cultivation area of millet goes on decreasing years by year. Despite of this the production is highest in the year 2020/21 with the production of 326,443 Metric ton.  The amount of millet import showed a sharp upward trend from 2013/14 to 2020/21 than export quantity. The majority of the finger millet imported comes from India.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, our analysis of cereal import and consumption patterns in Nepal highlights the significant role played by rice, wheat, maize, and to a lesser extent, millet in the country's food system. Despite being major cash crops and staples, Nepal is not able to produce enough cereal to meet its domestic demand, which necessitates the need for imports. Our study shows that the import trends for these cereals vary over time and across sources, with India being the largest supplier of rice, wheat, and maize to Nepal. We also found that consumption patterns of these cereals vary across the country, reflecting differences in cultural preferences, dietary habits, and socioeconomic factors. For example, rice is the most widely consumed cereal in Nepal, while maize is more prevalent in the midhills. While cereal imports are important for ensuring food security, they can also pose challenges, such as price volatility and supply disruptions. Therefore, it is important for Nepal to develop a more robust and sustainable cereal industry that promotes self-sufficiency in production and reduces reliance on imports. This can be achieved through various means, such as improving the efficiency of agricultural practices, enhancing infrastructure and storage facilities, and promoting the cultivation of diverse and climate-resilient crops. Overall, our study underscores the need for a holistic and integrated approach to addressing cereal import and consumption patterns in Nepal. This requires the involvement of various stakeholders, including policymakers, farmers, traders, and consumers, who can work together to ensure that Nepal's food system is sustainable, equitable, and resilient in the face of current and future challenges.