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Estimate and Trend Analysis on Financial Burden of Long-term Care Insurance System in ChinaChinese Full Text

ZHANG Yinghua;National Institute of Social Development,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;

Abstract: The problem of extreme narrowed beneficiary coverage during the piloting of China’s Long-Term Care Insurance system,which exposes local governments’ concerns about the financial sustainability. The paper uses data of the sixth census survey,historical data from Germany LTCI,and data of the National Aging Office’survey to estimate that the amount of disabled elderly population in China is 5.69 million,12.97 million,and 46.63 million in 2015,and will reach 22.11 million,52.79 million,and 143.83 million by 2055,respectively. Imitating the LTCI system of Nantong,Germany and Qingdao,the author calculates the ratio of fund expenditure to GDP,which is the minimum 0.08% and the maximum 1.90% in 2015,and will increase to 0.28% and 5.90% respectively in 2055. The sensitivity of the ratio change to reimbursement level is higher than to beneficiary coverage. The contribution rates of different scenarios are minimum 0.13% and maximum 0.74% in 2015,and will increase to 0.55% and 3.32% respectively by 2055. The contribution rate is more sensitive to scale of participants than both of reimbursement level and beneficiaries coverage. It is proposed to expand the beneficiary coverage,benefits only cover basic risks and steadily increase the level of reimbursement,absorb whole population to contribute to the system.
  • DOI:

    10.16405/j.cnki.1004-129X.2020.02.007

  • Series:

    (H) Education & Social Sciences; (J) Economics & Management

  • Subject:

    Insurance

  • Classification Code:

    F842.6

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