EMIGRATION FROM RUSSIA: NEW TRENDS AND FORMS

The subject-matter of this article is migration from Russia. The study deals with current aspects and new forms of emigration. The goal of this paper is to identify new patterns determining the emigration from Russia. The article views the emigration in a broad sense, including, in addition to classic emigration (i.e. leaving the home country for permanent residence in another country), various categories of return migration (labor migration, shuttle traders, seasonal migration, episodic migration, economic tourism, business migration, education abroad, etc.). With the emergence of these new forms and categories, there is a need to clarify the migration concepts. This analysis is built on a broad historical perspective on emigration, which has been a typical phenomenon for Russia over the last three centuries. The article is based on such economic theories, as the human capital theory, new economic theory of migration, Todaro's economic theory of migration and other. In this article, a variety of methods are used, including historical analogy, statistical and mathematical approaches, sociological and econometric models. The article analyzes the patterns of modern emigration from Russia. It also considers certain aspects in the legal regulation of migration processes, with a focus on emigrants, including potential emigrants. In conclusion, the article notes the need for the state control of emigration processes. This means not so much the improvement of statistical records for this group of migrants, but rather specific government measures aimed at providing the state support to these categories of migrants in order to prevent the non-return migration. In other words, it is not aimed at banning the emigration (a measure, the adverse effects of which were noted as long ago as by Mikhail Lomonosov). The findings of this research can be used in improving the migration policy implemented, in particular, by the Federal Migration Service of Russia.


Introduction
Russia is one of those few countries which, in the last two centuries, "generously" scattered its people outside the borders of fatherland. This includes more than 10 million people who, according to some estimates, had moved to the newly independent states (former Soviet republics) by 1991. A bit less than 10 million moved to the countries outside the former Soviet Union (USA, France, Australia, and others). According to other estimates, in early 1990s, some 20 million emigrants from Russia were living in the countries outside the former Soviet Union [1, p. 33]. In the past 25 years, their number increased approximately by another 2.5 million. It is worth to remember that in the 18th -early 20th centuries, the centrifugal nature of migration flows from Russia to present-day newly independent states not only contributed to the formation and expansion of the Russian Empire, but also helped to preserve and develop its new territories in Central Asia, the Caucasus and other regions. [2, p. 307].In our brief overview of Russian migration history, we would like to emphasize its most significant moments. In one way or another, the Russian state always experienced the emigration beyond its borders, although it was determined by different circumstances and reasons of economic, political, national, religious and other nature. About a dozen papers have been written on the history of emigration from Russia. Among them, we would like to highlight the works of some authors who presented a broad canvas of events related to emigration, including those of V. M. Kabuzan [3] and Yu. V. Roshchin [4] and collective work edited by A. A. Bondarev [2].
In earlier times (up to the 17th century), if there was any emigration (in its modern sense), it was very small. Later, in the 18th-19th centuries, the political emigration from Russia begun to involve more people and became more noticeable.
It is often difficult to separate some underlying causes from other. However, in the 17th -early 20th centuries, the emigration was mostly of economic nature. This was noted as early as in 1761 by Mikhail Lomonosov. Writing about emigration in his famous treatise "On the Reproduction and Preservation of the Russian People" he noted that it "absolutely cannot be banned by force" [5, p. 143]. However, it was precisely the bans that underpinned the entire structure of the Russian autocracy with its serfdom and strong feudal restrictions. Only in early 20th century, the policy of bans somewhat weakened under the pressure of economic expediency. The latter manifested itself, in particular, in the fact that Russia became a major exporter of labor to Germany, Denmark, and other countries. Neither before nor after this relatively short period, including the present day, the labor migration from Russia had such importance. In 1910-1913, 288 thousand Russians were coming each year for a period of no more than 10.5 months to Germany, which was about 70 % of all foreign workers in German agriculture [6, p. 183].
The same period saw the spreading of illegal immigration caused by difficulties, often intractable, in obtaining foreign travel documents (passport and legitimization cards for seasonal workers), which became more common in the 21st century.
The total emigration from Russia in 1820-1916 is estimated at 4.5 million. [1, p. 55]. The migration from Russia reached an especially large scale in 1917-1924 following important political changes. Since 1925, when the "Iron Curtain" descended, the principle of bans became prevalent again up until the end of 1980s. Without getting into a detailed description of that period, we would like to note, that the number of those who left Russia is estimated to be within 2-3 million people, including some highly qualified specialists, who later became well-known outside their home country and deserved our special attention.
The period from 1987 to 1991 has a special place in the Russian history, because a special regulation adopted in the late 1986 and the first law on entry and exit adopted in 1991 made it easier to leave the country, which led to sharp rise in emigration from 10 thousand to 104 thousand people.
Since late 1980s, Russia's involvement in global migration flows has become quite extensive and diverse in nature. It is worth to mention that the aggregate or total migration of Russians and foreigners for various reasons and various purposes increased by almost 6 times from 1987 to 1999 and in 2000, exceeded 32 million. In 2014, the aggregate migration was 64 million people 2 . It could be argued that in Russia, the international migration is in line with global patterns that determine this phenomenon.
At the same time, the myths on international migration in Russia established in early 1990s not only persist, but become even more numerous. We will not dwell on them in detail 3 . But we would like to draw attention to one such myth. In Russia, the international migration quite often is considered exclusively within the framework of immigration issues. This is partly related to the sharp increase in migration flows in Russia since 1994. At the same time, the emigration from Russia not only continues, but in the recent years has demonstrated a tendency to increase. For example, among 64 million migrants mentioned above, almost 32 million are those who left Russia. In 2014, there was a particularly significant increase in the number of classical emigrants, which exceeded 308 thousand (compared to 37 thousand in 2011) 4 . At the same time, the emigration becomes much more diverse, as we will describe later in this article. For now, it should be noted that this myth is reflected in many official documents. For example, one of the fundamental documents, such as the Concept of State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2025 pays virtually no attention to the issues of emigration, which in the end makes it difficult to implement the effective migration policy in Russia 5 .
At the same time, to find effective solutions, it is necessary to know the place and role of Russia in the global migration cycle and in the current trends that shape and define this cycle. This requires to view Russia as a Eurasian Center that ensures a close link, including in the area of migration, between East and West.  It should be noted that, in 1990s-2000th, the international migration reached an unprecedented scale, which allows to speak about the formation of a "nation of migrants" that exceeds 1.2 billion and includes the following groups: -232 million people are classical migrants 6 . 50 % of them account for 10 developed countries, including Russia; -105 million are migrant workers (250 million are migrant workers with their families); -25-50 million are illegal migrants; -more than 10 million are seasonal and border area workers; -42 million are forced migrants (refugees, environmental refugees, deportees, etc.); -more than 700 million are occasional migrants, including "economic tourists." 7 It is hard to tell how true are these figures given the existing shortcomings of international migration statistics. But it is definitely known that the annual growth rate for the number of migrants around the world increased from 1.2 % in 1965-1975 to 2.6 % in 1985-1990 and 3.2 % in 2002-2014, which is significantly above the annual population growth rate in the western countries. Therefore, even a brief description of today's key patterns in international migration enables us to see more clearly the place and the growing role of Russia in international migration flows. At the same time, we would like to specifically emphasize, as our analysis and the work of several authors including foreign ones show it clearly, that the strengthening of interstate migration is not something new for Russia both in the area of immigration and emigration.

Theoretical Aspects of Research
From the theoretical point of view, it is important to consider the issue that has been discussed for several decades and is directly related to the concept of migration and its derivatives, that is the emigration and immigration. There are also such concepts as "mobility" and "spatial mobility" which, in our opinion, cannot be regarded as synonyms. In classical scientific works, the duration of a person's stay at the new place of residence was regarded as one of the basic indicators for identifying the phenomenon of migration. Given that people were migrating once or twice in their lives, and it was almost always for good, this approach was certainly justified and had no conflict with reality. The proponents of the "narrow" interpretation of migration traditionally argued that migration should be a finished type of territorial movement and should meet two conditions: 1) people should move between different population centers; 2) the movements must be accompanied by a change of permanent residence. These approaches found their way not only in science but also in the practice of recording and regulating migration in Russia. For example, in the Soviet period, the migrants record system was focused on documenting only the "permanent" migration related to the registration system. By inertia, this approach remained in use in post-Soviet Russia, even though today's realities are quite different. Russians began to actively move, and migration processes intensified significantly with the emergence of new forms of temporary migration.
L. L. Rybakovsky introduced into the scientific practice an expanded interpretation of migration by including the temporary forms of migration flows into it. He gave the following definition of migration: "Territorial movements that take place between different population centers or regions, regardless of duration, regularity and target orientation, represent migration in the broad sense of this word" [7, p. 15].
In essence, L. L. Rybakovsky was the first in the Russian science to include in the classical definition of migration its forms, which had been excluded from it because of their temporary nature (for example, occasional, pendulum and temporary labor migrations). Later, the authors began to refer to migration other types of migratory movements (business, tourism, study visits), which are temporary in nature and are not associated with a change of residence [8, p. 302].
Until now, the narrow approach to defining the migration has been traditionally used and prevalent in the Russian practice of migration records (in the state statistics). Various forms of return migration not associated with a change in permanent residence and related only to the change in the application of labor (for example, pendulum movements, migration of merchants (shuttle migrants), shift migration, seasonal migration) for a long time could not find their way into the state statistics, although they may reasonably be regarded as different types of migration in terms of its broad definition accepted in science. Recently, the changes have also emerged in the statistical approach: some of the above forms of temporary migration are recorded now.
Temporary migration is divided into short-term migration (when the migrant resides up to three months outside their usual place of residence) and long-term migration (three months to one year outside their usual place of residence). This is due to the fact that, in practice, the visa and registration system of foreigners in various countries, as a rule, uses the period of up to three months as a milestone separating the short-term and long-term migrants. This is the period, for which many countries allow a visa-free entry without a special registration with the police, etc. Therefore, based on migration regulation and records system practices, it is appropriate to apply this approach in order to separate short-term and long-term migration.
In fact, this comes down to highlighting two types of migratory movement (the migration in the broad sense of the word): non-return (relocation) and return (temporary) migration. The temporary migration displays a variety of sub-types, which, basically, causes the emergence of new forms of emigration, that will be discussed below.
From the theoretical point of view, it is especially interesting to consider modern varieties of neoclassical economic theory, which give priority to the behavior of individual (migrant). We can mention a number of theoretical works, such as M. Todaro's economic theory of migration [9], the theory of human capital of G. S. Becker [10] and L. Sjaastad [11], new economic theory of migration developed primarily by D. Massey [12], O. Stark [13] and others. Also, it is worth mentioning the universal theory of migration of D. Massey [14,.
The theory of M. Todaro was developed, first of all, to explain the process of moving from rural areas to cities. But this theory can be also used to explain the rural emigration from one country to another (as a rule, this is usually the migration between the neighboring countries, such as the migration from Mexico to the USA). The mathematical model of migration proposed by Todaro is designed to provide the rationale for the need or refusal to emigrate from rural areas to the cities [9].
As for the theory of human capital, which development has attracted a lot of attention in recent time, 8 it should be noted that one of the first scientists who included the migration in this theory was L. A. Sjaastad, an American researcher. In 1962, he provided a detailed theoretical rationale to the idea that individuals migrate as a result of expectations to improve their financial position following the migration. In particular, he suggested that individuals or households migrate in order to increase their human capital, that is, to increase the ability to generate income throughout their lives following the decision to move to another region or another country. The individuals move, if they assume that the benefits of migration will outweigh its costs.
But since the benefits of migration do not manifest themselves instantly, but appear after a certain period, it may be argued that migration is an investment. At the same time, migration is an act, the costs of which are manifested immediately. These costs are balanced by future income expected from such investment. "Since this is an investment aimed at increasing human potential, -wrote Sjaastad, -we consider it as the investment in human capital, that is, the investment in increased productivity of human resources" [11, p. 83]. Microeconomic models that use this idea are treated now as human capital models.
The approach to human capital theory has a number of distinct characteristics. First, the human capital model clearly shows that the benefits of migration can be seen only in a certain period, and this partly explains the fact that migration rates decrease for individuals of older age. At the same time, an individual may migrate even without expecting any quick benefits from migration. Second, the human capital theory is not limited to considering purely economic costs and benefits, which can be also measured by a variety of intangible factors [15, p. 97].
The development of human capital is closely associated with such phenomenon as brain drain, which can have both negative (for countries of departure) and positive (for countries of arrival) impact.

Statistical Data and Research Methods
Despite a significant increase in emigration from Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, so far there is no single comprehensive system of data sources on emigration from Russia and the number of Russian migrants living abroad.
Currently, we can mention several sources of statistical information, which we used in this study, including data of the Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat); data of the Federal Migration Service of Russia; data of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; expert assessments; national statistics from countries that have accepted the major flows of migrants from Russia; data from international organizations (UN, IOM, ILO, OECD, and other). 9 Paradoxically, foreign statistics record a larger number of Russians abroad. It also reflects more adequately the scale of the Russian emigration.
Based on statistical data, we calculated the parameters that describe both the scale and trends of emigration flows from Russia over a long historical period. Ultimately, this confirmed long empirical observations about Russia as a country not only attracting immigrants but also a country of emigration. We used such indicators, as a balance of migration (difference between immigrants and emigrants), gross (aggregate) migration, which is the sum of arrivals in and departures from the country. The latter indicator, unlike the balance of migration, provides the most vivid illustration on the scale of migration flows over a specific period. For such phenomena as the brain drain, we used the materials of empirical statistical and sociological research, which was conducted in 2011-2012 and included statistical and sociological methods. Statistical methods included collecting, summarizing and comparing Russian and foreign statistics on emigration of scientists and highly qualified specialists from Russia, as well as on the number of Russian scientific diaspora around the world.

Legal framework
Legal regulation of emigration issues is quite a difficult task for any country. This can be explained by the need to strike a balance between fundamental human rights (freedom of movement, right to choose a place of residence, etc.) and state interests to prevent the outflow of its citizens.
In practice, emigration issues are to a greater extent regulated by the accepting side, rather than by the giving one. Countries are paying close attention to those who enter their territory. The Russian Federation has adopted a number of documents aimed at legal regulation of immigration issues 10 . For example, it quite clearly defined the issues of attracting highly qualified specialists. 11 As for legal regulation of emigration in the Russian Federation, the main document is the Federal Law of 1996 "On the Procedure for Exit from the Russian Federation and Entry to the Russian Federation". 12 First of all, this document (art. 15) introduces a number of restrictions on the exit of citizens from the Russian Federation. A citizen's right to exit may be temporarily restricted, if such citizen has access to classified information, state secrets, is a criminal suspect or accused, evades fulfillment of the obligations imposed by the court, etc. Therefore, the main legal factor that may prevent the exit of citizens is the existence of obligations to the state. It should also be noted that the regulation of this issue cannot be purely legal. A socio-psychological aspect, motivation to be needed in the homeland is also very important.

Today's Main Trends and New Forms of Emigration from Russia
One of the main characteristics of migration in Russia is associated with the emergence in 1992 of the so-called "new (near) abroad" (former Soviet republics or newly independent states). This event instantly transformed internal migration flows between Russia and former Soviet republics into international migration and made an impact on statistics. For example, in 1991-2014, non-return migration (classical emigration) from Russia amounted to 4.9 million people. This included 3.3 million people (67 %) who migrated to the countries of "new abroad." Emigration from Russia to the countries outside the former Soviet Union has a relatively high level in the modern period (compared to the Soviet era). During the said period, on average about 60 thousand people were emigrating from Russia each year.
It is important to emphasize that contrary to many predictions made in the mid 1980s -early 1990s, the actual emigration from Russia to the former Soviet republics and outside the former Soviet Union did not reach the multimillion scale. This happened, first, because the estimates on the number of Russians who wanted to leave their country was somewhat exaggerated and, second, because of the iron curtain, which this time was imposed by Western countries. The exceptions affected only individual groups of our citizens, whose ethnic origin allowed them to emigrate to Germany, Israel, Greece and the United States that have a significant diaspora of Jews and Armenians. In recent years (2010-2014), the emigration covered a wider range of countries and reached, on average, about 40 thousand people. However, the main flow of emigrants from Russia is directed towards the countries of "new abroad." Along with the general emigration, including its new forms (labor, shuttle, business migration, studies, etc.) which significantly increase its scale, there is also a growing outflow of highly qualified specialists. Their share increased from 14 % in 1992 to 31 % in 1999 and to 47 % in 2012. Over these years, the number of scientists who emigrated from Russia reached more than 42 thousand. It is worth mentioning that an increasing number of them are candidates and doctors of sciences [15,98]. For example, if in 2003 they were 63, in 2012 their number reached 234.
Among the forms of temporary emigration, we would like to bring particular attention to the growth of labor migration from Russia. According to some estimates, some 1.5 million Russians are currently working abroad. This emigration deserves special attention of the government, as it affects both the issues of the brain drain, and the shortage of working age population in Russia.
Traditionally, Russian and foreign scientific literature on emigration from Russia analyzed the flows of emigrants seeking permanent residence abroad. These authors primarily studied the processes of the brain drain. Statistical records of emigration in Russia were also traditionally focused on documenting the flows of emigrants seeking permanent residence. At the same time, less attention was paid to the forms of temporary emigration. However, in 2000-2010, the emigration flows from Russia substantially increased. In addition, the social basis of temporary emigration significantly expanded, as it was actively joined by Russians from the regions, people with an average level of education, women, youth.
The key forms of temporary emigration from Russian started to include labor migration, commercial migration, religious migration and tourism 13 . These forms are often closely intertwined and mutually reinforcing.
1. According to official data, in the recent years temporary labor emigration from Russia has been 60-70 thousand people. A shortcoming of this array of information comes from recording only those migrant workers who found the jobs through official channels (companies licensed by the Federal Migration Service for employment, as well as directly through the Federal Migration Service). In 2012, according to the FMS data, about 65 thousand Russian citizens received permits to work abroad. However, the studies show that many Russian citizens currently find employment abroad bypassing the official channels by visiting different countries with work, business, tourist and guest visas, and directly contacting the employers, and are not recorded in the data of the Federal Migration Service. The scale of temporary labor emigration from Russia is much higher. According to our estimates, it reaches about 150-200 thousand people annually. The comparison of foreign and Russian data on labor migration of Russians abroad indicates that the migration from Russia was at least 2 times higher (in some countries during specific years, it was even higher).
2. Commercial emigration. It may be argued that "shuttle traders" or commercial emigrants, who combined a trip abroad with the purchase of a variety of consumer goods and their subsequent import into Russia, gave impetus to the development of other forms of temporary emigration from Russia. During the heyday of commercial emigration from Russia -in the mid 1990s, -there were approximately 15-20 million "shuttles traders." 3. Educational emigration. This form of emigration became significantly active in 2000-2010, when many affluent parents started to send their children to study abroad. Educational migration was also stimulated by programs developed by European countries and the USA and aimed at supporting the education of Russian students. Russian students mainly go for studying to such countries as the USA, UK, Germany, Australia, and France. Educational migration very often evolves into a form of labor emigration, as many Russian students stay to work in their host countries. Moreover, we have seen the emergence of such phenomenon as "constantly circulating" educational migrants from Russia. Some young people constantly extend their stay abroad by using various grants, etc., in order to avoid returning to Russia. 4. Religious emigration is a new form, which emerged with newly found religious freedom in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The main destination of religious emigration of Christians is Israel with the Christian shrines located in Jerusalem. Saudi Arabia represents the main destination for religious migration of Russian Muslims, where the Hajj pilgrimage involves Muslims from Tatarstan, Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia and other Russian regions. This form of migration happens in the organized way, as Saudi Arabia limits the entry of pilgrims. According to approximate estimates, some 100 thousand pilgrims from Russia visit various places associated with religious cults. 5. A special group of emigrants are people with dual citizenship or, which is most often the case, people with two or more foreign passports 14 . In these cases, each state usually considers such person as its own citizen only [16, p. 171-177]. The holders of dual citizenship (EU, USA, Canada) can freely move outside the Russian Federation, stay for some time in another country or even plan a deferred permanent emigration (for example, after reaching the retirement age). There is no separate statistical database on such persons. But the growing trend makes this issue increasingly relevant.
Regionally, the emigration involves to a larger extent the residents of border regions of Russia. The calculations show that, at the regional level, the share of labor migrants in the employed population reaches its peak in the border regions, such as Primorsky Krai and Khabarovsk Krai, Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Karelia, Leningrad Region and Kaliningrad Region. Moreover, we observe the emergence of established "migration corridors", where the residents of Far East regions are primarily focused on work in the Asia-Pacific (Japan, Korea, China, Australia, South-East Asia); migrants from the North Caucasus usually go to the Middle East (Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Cyprus, Israel, etc.); residents of north-western border regions to the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland); and migrants from the European part of Russia tend to work in Europe, USA, Canada.
The majority of labor migrants from Russia are men. A third of migrant workers (35 %) are young people at the age ranging from 16 to 29 years old. A quarter (26 %) are in the age group ranging from 40 to 49 years old. A fifth part (21 %) are people from 30 to 39 years old. This means that the international labor market demands young people. Among labor emigrants from Russia, this imbalance is particularly noticeable for women, most of whom belong to younger age groups. In the foreign countries, the most sought after are the Russians with secondary special (vocational) education. They represent about 40-50 % of those who left to work abroad under the contracts. Russians with higher education represent about a third of the migration flow. In the international market, it is easier to find a job for Russians with some worker trades, who represent about half of labor migration flows (primarily, those who have trades related to shipping industry and fishing). These specialties account for about half of all worker trades. About a quarter of all employed abroad under the contracts are technical experts and specialists in the area of art and culture. A sixth part of labor migrants are the managers. The analysis of Russian statistics shows that 64 % of migrants had worked in the transport industry before moving from Russia, 65 % of labor emigrants retained their specialization and also worked in the transport industry in their host countries. These are mainly sailors and technical staff of the ships. Temporary labor migration also tends to shift into permanent migration, as many labor migrants stay for permanent residence in their host countries.

Conclusion
Finally, we present the main ideas and findings of this study. We can argue that, at the present stage, the emigration viewed in the broadest sense of this term not only increases in scale reaching the millions but also becomes more diverse.
Despite the limitations of statistics, we have made calculations of direct demographic losses suffered by the Russian Federation as a result of emigration. According to our estimates the number of emigrants, who moved for permanent residence in 1994-2014, reached 3.1 million, including 1.  Table 1 The trends in emigration from the Russian Federation in 1993-2014 years; people increased spending on science, while aggravating social polarization among scientists, exacerbating the problem of degradation in scientific schools and teams left outside these "oases" and, consequently, instigating a new round of emigration of scientists abroad. Paradoxically, the fact is that today it is better to emigrate from Russia and then be invited back from another country as an "outstanding" scientist.
Finally, we would like to emphasize the need for state administration in the area of emigration. This means not so much the improvement of statistical records for this group of migrants, but rather specific government measures aimed not at banning the emigration (a measure the adverse effects of which were noted as long ago as by Mikhail Lomonosov), but at providing the state support to these categories of migrants in order to prevent the non-return migration.