베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 기후변화 적응대책 정책평가: 부산광역시를 대상으로

김나윤; 이상혁; 박창석

doi:10.15531/KSCCR.2022.13.5.597

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한국기후변화학회
한국기후변화학회지 학술저널
Journal of Climate Change Research Vol.13 No.5
2022.10 597 - 610 (14page)
DOI : 10.15531/KSCCR.2022.13.5.597

저자정보

김나윤 (울산과학기술원)
이상혁 (한국해양수산개발원)
박창석 (한국환경연구원)

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초록·키워드

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Climate change adaptation predicts damage from global persistent climate change to various aspects and taking countermeasures. Accordingly, Korea has been establishing measures to adapt to climate change since 2010, but there are insufficiencies. Thus, the purpose of this study is to perform policy assessment of climate change adaptation measures and to suggest directions and policy implications for establishing further adaptation measures in the future. The spatial scope of the study was limited to Busan Metropolitan City, and the time range was set from 2000 to 2020.
Policy assessment of climate change adaptation measures was conducted by examining the prior distribution of damage caused by typhoons and heavy rain, and then demonstrating the relative effect of the measures based on the posterior probability of the damage. The study results suggest the following implications. First, the capacity to adapt to climate change in a new climate system is essential, as extreme climate phenomena occur frequently. Secondly, as the number of complex disasters caused by the effects of climate change increases, the implementation of a number of climate change adaptation measures will have a substantial effect on climate change adaptation. Interest in adapting to climate change is increasing, but studies demonstrating policy effects are very rare, and the system for demonstrating policy effects is insufficient. Therefore, this study is meaningful in trying to demonstrate the policy effects of climate change adaptation measures, and it is expected to be used as basic data for future adaptation measures and implementation plans.

#Climate Changes Adaptation #Policy Assessment #Bayesian Networks #Busan Metropolitan City