Factors affecting the food gap and the share of self-sufficiency of selected commodities: the case of Arab countries

Agriculture and food situation has entered in the Arab world since the mid-seventies in a critical stage, due to the growing demand for food and agricultural products in particular, high population growth rates, in addition to high food prices in the global markets and shrinking of the relative importance of the agricultural sector in the Arab economic structures. This has resulted in worsening food shortages and therefore resorts to foreign sources to fill the food deficit. Therefore, in this the paper we tried to identify the most important factors affecting the problem of the growing food gap, and the deterioration of selfsufficiency rates of selected food commodities (wheat and flour, maize, rice, red meat, white meat). We chose these goods based on their relative importance. In spite of the importance of productivity, the share of these commodities in the value of food imports exceeds production rates. So, we have set up methodological framework that includes estimating equations of general time trend during the period 2000-2013, expected future quantities of the food gap, and identify the most important factors affecting the amount of the gap and the share of selfsufficiency of goods under study. The main findings reveal that Arab countries are significantly exposed to the FNS risks, mainly driven by the food trade deficit between Arab countries, high unemployment, and high population growth rates. This resulted in the expansion of the size of the food gap between domestic production and national consumption of those goods and declining self sufficiency rate of those goods. Therefore, they rely on foreign sources to fill the deficit. The Arab food integration is one of the most important reasons for achieving the Arab food security strategy. As this integration will bring significant economic advantages of the Arab world, it might increase the volume of trade exchange between Arab countries, on the one hand, and between the Arab world and foreign markets, on the other.


Introduction
"Food Security" is one of the major elements of development and poverty alleviation and has been the goal of many international and national public organizations.The issue is so important that according to the state of food insecurity in the world 2012 published by FAO around 870 million people (out of which 852 million from developing countries) are estimated to have been undernourished in the period 2010-2012 (Food and Environment.2013).A recent study confirms that the increased demand for agricultural commodity's rates with no compatibility with the growth of agricultural production.This will lead to a widening food gap in the Arab world in the most food commodities and produces the Arab world is less than 70% of its food needs (Said.2010).it is increasingly being http://dx.doi.org/10.15414/isd2016.s12.02recognized that, due to a confluence of factors, international food commodity prices are likely to exhibit a rising and more volatile medium-term trend.This trend is of particular concern for Arab countries because of their rapidly growing populations, limited water and arable land resources, and significant dependence on international food commodity markets.Arab countries want and need to act urgently to improve food security.Projections of the region's food balance indicate that depend on imports will increase by almost 64% over the next twenty years.Going forward, we need to deploy together our efforts to help offset vulnerability to future food price shocks in the region by focusing on investment in three key areas: (i) Strengthening safety nets; (ii) Enhancing food supply; and (iii) Reducing exposure to international commodity market volatility (Akhtar.2011).The dramatic rise in food prices, the growing disparity between production and population.The latest in the Arab world, especially big gap size was in 2010, nearly 40 billion dollars, in light of the continued rise in the number of residents at an annual rate of up to about 2.5 per cent of the total population of nearly 400 million people.All this latest bitter reality casts a shadow over the poor (Shaheen.et al 2014).

Material and methods
Based on some standard methods.we will use equations of general time trend.Where we will show the relationship between Commodity balance variables of selected commodities, with time.By using Eveiws 6 program.The primary purpose of time-series analysis is to find suitable to measure changes and thus the study of their relationship to the different circumstances of the way (Alloush.2013).So we use the time as an independent variable X and Y values of the series as the dependent variable.The equation is: yˆ = aˆ + bˆx…… (1) Where: aˆ: the lump is part of the vertical axis, bˆ: mi trend line, yˆ: the value of the phenomenon directivity, x: time guide (start the One for the first time and then two second period and so on ....).

𝑏ˆ =
∑− ∑ 2 - 2 ………(2) And: Expectation size of future food gap of selected commodities.By measuring the general trend of the time series can be identified in the behavior of this series in the past, present, and then it can be used as a basis to predict the future (Shorbaj.1994).This method produces a mathematical equation by equation represents the general trend, which may be linear, or exponential (Fadel.1984).As in the equation ( 1), (2).Where: yt : the amount of time series in time t; c, m: numerical constants.
In this the paper, we relyed on statistical data from publications and periodicals published by the World Bank, IMF, FAO, AOAD and the economic literature on the phenomenon of food security.

Economic growth and development constraints in Arab countries
In 2013, the average real GDP growth rate of the region is projected at 4.4%.The GDP growth rate on average is likely to taper off due to the decline in energy export revenues which marked a historic high in 2012.At the same time, net energy importing countries in the region is struggling to stabilize their economies amid worsening foreign exchange constraint.http://www.ammanchamber.org.jo/Uplaoded/PRFiles/The%20arab%20aconomy.pdf

Constraints of agricultural sector in Arab countries
Agriculture accounts for most important economic sectors in the Arab countries.In terms of the weakness of the technical level of the Arab cultivation (80%) of them were traditional cultivation depends on the cultivation of rain.One of the most important obstacles facing the Arab agriculture is a set of utmost importance and economic gaps in economic development, including: technical gap, the food gap, the institutional gap, reflected by the low level of agricultural services of guidance and research, marketing and other financing gap, resulting from deficiencies in the investment in infrastructure, and refrain from investments in joint agricultural projects.

The contribution of agricultural output in GDP for the Arab countries
The GDP growth rate on average is likely to taper off due to the decline in energy export revenues, which marked a historic high in 2012.

Economic analysis of the evolution of commodity balance variables of the Arab selected food commodities in the world (2000-2013)
In spite of increased domestic production of major food commodities, but the rapid and steady increase in population has led to increased domestic consumption of major food commodities at rates much higher than the domestic production growth rates.

Food Security and Trade in The Arab Countries
Agricultural exports accounted 2% of the total exports in the Arab world in 2013.While the food exports of the agricultural export's ratio 79.2%, and the agricultural imports in the same year were the increase of 8.37% of the total imports.Food imports accounted for 83.25% of agricultural imports.The foreign trade of food commodities worth around (99.9) billion dollars in 2013, where exports contributed around (19.41) billion dollars represented about (19.44%) of the total foreign trade of food commodities, and the coverage ratio of the value of imports about (24.13%).We can say that the reason for the growing reliance on external sources is due to a decline in the contribution of the agricultural sector in GDP and the per capita agricultural output.This has led to a shortfall in food balance, as the value of imports exceeded the value of food exports in the Arab countries, (figure 9).

The expectation of the future quantities of food gap in Arab countries
The results in (Table 4) show that the food gap will increase due to increased demand for food commodities and the food production deficit in the Arab countries.This leads to increased food imports and exacerbated the food gap.And to alleviate the worsening gap requires the targeting of Arab economic policies to achieve the following objectives: 1 -The adoption of an integrated Arab strategy to bridge the food gap, rationalizing the consumption of food and build strategic stocks.
2-Confirmation of the Arab cooperation and integration in the field of self-sufficiency where they can do marketing activities for agricultural products in order to deepen Arab cooperation in the field of food trade.Note; Collected and calculated from the equations of the general direction of the gap amount of goods under study in Table 3.

Trends of The Arab Food Gap
The Arab food gap is Characterized by fluctuating from year to year due to changes in agricultural production and the volume of consumption and fluctuations in international prices of food commodities.That the value of the Arab food gap tended towards stability between 2011 and 2013, and perhaps mainly due to the efforts of Arab states to improve and increase the production of food commodities through programs and projects related to food security, Arab countries vary in the amount of their contribution to the value of the Arab food gap, according to population and consumer patterns and income levels.(AOAD2013).Note; Food Gap = domestic production -net imports of various food commodities

The main determinants of food gap of selected commodities (2000-2013)
From the analysis in (Table 5) we found that the local production of the wheat is the most important factor affecting the amount of the gap, where local production is unable to meet the growing demand of the population, thus leading to resort to Import and causes the expansion of the food gap.As for maize, rice that the increase in imported quantities led to the worsening of the food gap of these crops.parameters values of red and white meat show that Arab countries import quantities of meat to cover the shortfall in domestic production and meet the needs of the population, and this leads to the growing food gap of meat.Where; Y1; Gap amount of wheat and flour (a thousand tons), Y2; Gap amount of maize (a thousand tons).
Y3; Gap amount of rice (a thousand tons), Y4; Gap amount of red meat (a thousand tons), Y5; Gap amount of white meat (a thousand tons), X1; production quantity (a thousand tons), X2; population (million inhabitants), X3; The amount of imports (a thousand tons), X4; the average per capita agricultural GDP (US dollar).

Self-sufficiency rates of major food commodities in the Arab countries
The deterioration of Self-sufficiency rates in Arab countries constitutes a threat to food security, Food commodities can be classified into three groups, according to the rates of selfsufficiency during the period 2011-2013; 1-Self-sustaining high rates of groups: its in potatoes, vegetables, fish, fruit, and eggs, where the self-sufficiency rate in excess of (96.24%).

Conclusions
There are several factors that led to the limited food production in the Arab world, thus widening the food gap.In contrast.Increase demographic growth rates, The low proportion of cultivated land actually, Asymmetric distribution of agricultural resources in the Arab world, Water scarcity and misuse of disposable ones, Low agricultural productivity and the failure of agricultural policies.Domestic and foreign reports indicate that the Arab countries have the resources and experience, enough to achieve Arab food security, the requirement to take measures to protect and develop the use of those resources and to ensure the rational use and employ good arrangements.The results that have been reached in the case of Arab countries were showing that Agriculture and Food in the Arab world since the mid-seventies the situation has entered a critical stage, and was the growing demand for general food and agricultural products, in particular.As a result of high population growth rates and a qualitative jump in per-capita incomes in some Arab countries (oil), in addition to rising food prices in global markets and shrinking the relative importance of the agricultural sector in the Arab economic structures.This has resulted to worsen food shortages and therefore, resort to foreign sources to fill the deficit.So, In this the paper, we have set up methodological framework that includes estimating equations of general time trend of some food commodities during the period 2000-2013.An expectation of future quantities of the food gap of the most important food commodities, and Identify the most important factors affecting the amount of the gap and the proportion of self-sufficiency of goods under study.therefore, we can say that integration will bring significant economic advantages of the Arab world, and this calls us to work to achieve Arab economic integration and the creation of agricultural investment environment that encourages more investment in the agricultural sector and the political decision-making and administrative procedures applicable, and the diversification of Arab agricultural patterns, taking into account the principles of specialization and comparative and competitive advantages.

Figure 3 :Figure 5 : The contribution of selected Figure 6 :
Figure 3: The relative importance of Figure 4: the relative importance of meat cereal crops of the total production in 2013 of the total meat production in 2013

Figure 7 ;Figure 8 :
Figure 7; Total exports and import value In Arab countries

Figure
Figure 11: Self-sufficiency ratio of selected food commodities

Total Arab region 1.3 4.5 2.2 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.9 5.5 4.8
every year, while growth in the Region has not been sufficient to create an appropriate number of jobs.The major reason for this is the low level of economic integration between the member countries of the Region http://dx.doi.org/10.15414/isd2016.s12.02

Table 2 : The change in unemployment rates in selected Arab Countries. (% of Labor force)
Source: (GUCCIAAC) The General Union of Chambers of Commerce, Industry & Agriculture for Arab Countries.2014.The Arab Economy-a Private Sector's Perspective For a Better Business Climate.