EVALUATION OF THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF TRADE INDUSTRY COMPANIES OF UKRAINE

The economic potential of Ukraine’s trade industry for the period 2014-2020 is estimated based on the analysis of structural changes in the industry and economic potential of trade companies. Pre-war performance indicators show that the trade industry of Ukraine was one of the drivers of the economy. At the same time, the period of the beginning of the COVID restrictions led to the growth of not only e-commerce, but also trade in general. But Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, caused a great damage to both the Ukrainian economy in general and the trade industry in particular. The study reveals the consolidation of regional business trading companies and further specialization of small businesses. The drivers of the trade industry development are the growth of information and technical and technological potential of its companies. Accordingly, among the priority areas for capital investment in the industry are software, and obtaining patents, licenses and trademarks, both own and those obtained by partner companies. Assessment of the financial potential of companies in the trade sector reveals a tendency to move from long-term to short-term financing, which indicates increased business risks. The sources of the risks include the rising energy prices and instability of the foreign economic situation with constant changes in the regulation of the industry. Estimates of the economic potential of Ukraine’s trade industry are supplemented by an analysis of warehousing, which is a related industry for trade. As cases of destruction of warehouses during the current hostilities have shown, the development of warehousing is critical for the realization of the economic potential of trade. It was found that the warehousing industry shows uneven development by region. Based on the analysis, the author formulates a series of recommendations on the directions of economic policy for the post-war recovery of trade and warehousing.

The dynamics of indicators of the number of employed and hired workers by year and company size (Tables 2 and 3) indicates increased role of human potential and human resources in the economic potential of trade business.Tables 2 and 3 show that while large and medium-sized companies employ all of their employees, small businesses employ an average of 50% (56% in 2018 and 43% in 2015).At the same time, we see that the number of employees at large companies increased by more than 66 thousand people, or 23.7%, compared to 2014, while medium-sized companies increased the number of employees by 19 thousand people, or 5%, over the same period.The dynamics of small businesses are worse, with a reduction of almost 142 thousand people, or an 8% drop.This trend indicates the consolidation of the industry and the growth of regional and national retail chains, while the number of small stores is decreasing.
Table 4 shows what was happening with wages in the industry, with statistics on labor costs by company size.The structure of labor costs almost exactly reflects the structure of employment, but a larger enterprise size leads to higher wages, which in the case of Ukraine is due to the consolidation of the industry and greater competition for workers, as well as an increased number of business entities in the networks.
Compared to 2014, nominal labor costs for large companies grew by almost 7.88 times, while those for medium-sized companies grew by 3.3 times.Small businesses spent 3.2 times more on labor costs in 2020 compared to 2014.
Evaluating this trend, we can conclude that the role of human capital and human potential as one of the components of economic potential is growing.
One of the key indicators reflecting the efficiency of any company is its profitability.The dynamics of net profit (loss) of Ukrainian trade companies by their size is shown in Table 5.The financial results of Ukrainian retailers demonstrate the dynamics of growth and profits in the industry for companies of all sizes and the amount of net profit.Therefore, taking into account the number of companies, we can conclude that the industry is consolidating and that small enterprises that could not compete with stronger players in the trade market are going out of business.Capital investments in the industry on average doubled between 2014 and 2020.The largest growth was observed among medium-sized companies, reflecting the trend toward business consolidation and development of regional retail chains as opposed to national and foreign retail chains.
In the structure of capital investments in the trade industry of Ukraine, we can note an increase in software costs -among large companies by 1.5 times, and among medium and small businesses by 2.4 and 3.3 times, respectively.Such dynamics, together with changes in the industry's structure, indicate increased use of information resources, and thus an increase in the information potential of the industry as a component of its economic potential.At the same time, investments in concessions, patents, licenses, trademarks and similar rights increased only in medium-sized businesses -by 6.61 times, as opposed to a 50% drop in large businesses and a 60% drop in small businesses, which supports the dynamics of the emergence of small regional retail chains that register their rights to their own products.
In assessing the levels of expenditure on existing buildings and structures and on construction and reconstruction of buildings, it is noticeable that small businesses are reducing their values in both indicators, while medium-sized businesses are concentrating investments in existing facilities and large businesses chose the tactic of building new facilities.As for investments in machinery and equipment, medium-sized businesses have the highest growth rate of 2.55 times, while small businesses have increased their investments by 1.31 times and large businesses by 2.75 times.
The growth in investments in information technology and intangible assets reflects the increase in the industry's information potential.And the leadership of machinery and equipment and tangible assets in terms of the share of capital investment indicates a renewal of fixed assets.
ISSN 2663 -6557.Economy and forecasting.2022, 3 The dynamics of technical and technological potential is relatively lower, but this component of economic potential occupies a special place in the trade sector.Assessment of the aggregate balance sheet indicators of Ukrainian trade companies should begin with general indicators.Between 2014 and 2020, the balance sheet of trade companies grew by 2.29 times, with medium-sized businesses showing the least growth -by 2.14 times, and large businesses leading the way with a 2.43 times increase.
Non-current assets grew by 83%, with large companies growing by 2.7 times.Small and medium-sized businesses showed an increase of 1.44 and 1.36 times, respectively.
The dynamics of changes in such balance sheet groups as current liabilities and collateral and long-term liabilities and collateral deserve special attention.The first group grew by 2.2 times, while long-term financing grew by only 1.27 times.At the same time, the dynamics of medium-sized companies differ from those of large and small ones, with a 30% decline in long-term liabilities.
It is possible to note a change in the structure of financing activities and the financial potential of companies in the industry, the ratio of long-term liabilities to current liabilities changed from 0.18 to 0.11 between 2014 and 2020, which indicates the transition of companies to shorter lending cycles and their reaction to ISSN 2663 -6557.Economy and forecasting.2022, 3 the general situation in the country -Ukraine's market volatility, dynamic changes in legislation and a difficult foreign economic situation.
The state of warehousing has a significant impact on the development of the trade sector (Tables 13, 14).
Table 13 The number of warehousing companies in Ukraine, broken down into large, medium and small businesses, in 2014-2020, units As for the state of the warehousing industry, it is worth noting the relatively low dynamics of its growth and the large share of small businesses (over 80%).The growth in the number of warehousing entities among small businesses during the study period was 32%, while the number of medium-sized businesses declined by 15%.
Table 14 The number of warehousing companies in Ukraine by region in 2014-2020, units Currently, 76% of all companies in the industry are located in the areas where military operations took place and/or are currently taking placethe city of Kyiv and Kyiv region, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions.The warehousing industry, which ensures normal trading activities, has suffered significant damage.

Conclusions
Performance indicators for 2014-2020 show that Ukraine's trade industry was developing quite dynamically.At the same time, the period of the beginning of the COVID restrictions led to the growth of not only e-commerce but also trade in general.However, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, caused great damage to both the Ukrainian economy in general and the trade industry in particular.
To operate effectively in such conditions, an accurate analysis of the economic potential of both the industry as a whole and companies in particular is required.Such an approach would help assess the processes in the industry to make the right decisions on the use of available resources, identify threats, and outline the prospects for current activities.
Currently, the trade industry is witnessing an active consolidation of players, with both net profit and the share of profit makers growing rapidly, indicating both competition compared to that in the EU trade industry and opportunities for growth in the industry.
The industry itself is pursuing a gradual policy of switching to more expensive but shorter-term financing of its operations, which results in increased risks.
The share of investments in software, patents, and intellectual property is increasing among capital investments by trade companies, indicating that companies are moving to digital management and growing e-commerce.The amount of funds invested in equipment, machinery and buildings, indicates a growth of the industry's technical and technological potential.
A policy of reducing the cost of financial resources is necessary for the further effective development of the trade industry in Ukraine.In this regard, the focus should be not only on cheap long-term loans, but also on the allocation of ISSN 2663 -6557.Economy and forecasting.2022, 3 targeted financing and balanced regional development of warehousing and infrastructure.Special attention should be paid to improving the legislation, namely, the transition from a value-added tax to a sales (purchase) tax.This approach will help to improve the situation of Ukraine's suppliers and reduce the cost of procurement, which will enable sales and turnover growth and hence revitalize the post-war economic recovery of our country.
The issue of subsidizing the renewal of fixed assets, machinery, and equipment remains relevant, but requires a balanced localization policy to reduce dependence on foreign currencies.The issues of energy and resource conservation technologies and the introduction of green energy deserve special attention, but these are topics for other studies.

Table 3 The number of hired workers at Ukrainian trade companies by size
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