Global Climatic Changes & its Effect on Agriculture

One primary objective of this paper is to find out the effects global worming on agriculture. Agriculture is one of the most weather-dependent of all human activities. It is ironic, then, that a significant percentage of greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. Fossil fuel-intensive agriculture is contributing to the creation of the unpredictable weather conditions that all farmers will need to battle in the not-too-distant future. Agriculture Land values to climate differences could capture the impact of climate on agricultural productivity and thus be used to calculate prospective effects of global warming. In a country like India where seventy percent of the population is dependent on agriculture, it is imperative that the effect of such drastic changes in environment are studied. Also, it is equally important that we rely more on scientifically proven facts about global climate changes rather than mere conjectures and exaggerations. Man’s relentless pursuit of material comfort and ‘happiness’ has engendered an irreversible harm to the environment – statements such as these abound environmental magazines, newspapers and the rest of the media. Hardly a day passes without us having to hear such words as “catastrophe”, “natural diseases”, “crisis”, etc. in the media. We hear of calving of ice bergs in Greenland and flash floods in the American Southwest. We also hear apocalyptic predictions made by scientists, environmentalists and even the laymen about the coastal cities of India getting inundated by the sea.

In India, agriculture and allied activities constitute the single largest component of Grass Domestic Product (GDP) contributing nearly 25% of the total. The tremendous importance of this sector to the Indian economy can be ganged by the fact that it provides employment to to-thirds of the total workforce. The share of agricultural products in exports is also substantial, with agriculture accounting for 15% of export earnings. Agricultural growth also has a direct impact on poverty eradication, and is an important factor in employment generation.
Further, Indian agriculture is fundamentally dependent on weather for higher productivity. The proof of this has been the increasing in agricultural production, owing to good monsoons over the last few years. A few conclusions on the effect of climate change on agriculture from different studies are listed below: • Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) -showed that an increase of 20C in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha (hectares) in the high yield areas; and 0.50C increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 tons/ha. • Rao and Shina (1994)-showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28-68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects. • Agarwal and Sinha (1993) showed that a 20C temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places. • Saseendran et al. (2000) showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.
The above facts emphasize the need to not only study in detail the climate change vulnerability of agriculture but also the methods of improving the adaptive capacity of agriculture to climate variability and extremes. Similarly, methane levels in the atmosphere have increased by 145% since the industrial revolution. This increase is a result of gas produced by livestock and paddy fields.

Climate Change
The increase in quantity of these gases leads to what is known as the green house effect.

The Green House Effect
Under normal circumstances the sun's rays hit the earth and are reflected back into space. However, gases in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide and methane form a barrier for sun light. Because of this property of these gases the reflected rays of the sun are trapped in the atmosphere.
The sun rays cannot escape from the earth's atmosphere, and the earth heats up. This is called the green house effect.

Global Warming
Global temperatures have risen by 0.50C over the 140 years, since records began. The decade 1990-2000 was the warmest for 300 years and 0.50c warmer than the mean 1961-1990 climate. Warm winters have reduced the number of frosts, and the warmer summer has included record hot spells and high sunshine totals.

How will Climate Change effect Agriculture? Soil Processes
The potential for soils to support agriculture and distribution of land use will be influenced by changes in soil water balance.
• Increase in soil water deficits i.e. dry soils become drier, therefore increased need for irrigation but; • Could improve soil workability in wetter regions and diminish poaching and erosion risk

Crops
The effect of increased temperature and CO2 levels on arable crops will be broadly neutral: • Horticultural crops are more susceptible to changing conditions than arable crops • Field vegetables will be particularly effected by temperature changes • Water deficits will directly affect fruit and vegetable production

Grasslands and Livestocks
• Poultry and pigs could be exposed to higher incidences of heat stress influencing productivity • Increase in disease transmission by faster growth rates of pathogens in the environment.
Predicted effects of Climate change on agriculture over the next 50 years. The following actions could be helpful in improving the adaptive capability of agriculture: 1. Improved training and general education of populations dependent on agriculture 2. Agricultural research to develop new crop varieties 3. Identification of the present vulnerabilities of agricultural systems 4. Food programs and other social security programs to provide insurance against supply changes 5. Transportation, distribution and market integration to provide the infrastructure to supply food during crop short falls.
In addition to the above improvements, it is imperative that the developed countries and the rapidly developing countries formulate strategies to curb green house gas emissions. Countries on the fast track of economic growth should also look at adopting new energy-saving technologies and planting of more trees. The emphasis should also be laid on increasing the use of renewable energy sources like solar and wind. It is high time for leading emitters of CO2 to formulate national programs to address climate change. Only then the effect of climate change on agriculture can be reduced.
The good news is that we can still do something about it. Supporting sustainable agriculture by buying from your local organic farms is a significant action to take. Many small farms are now developing highly productive farming systems with low environmental impact. These are the right kinds of farms for the future. We are likely to achieve better results by learning to collaborate with nature rather than using brute-force to bend it to our will, as is the norm with today's widespread industrial agriculture practices.
The type of food we eat is as important as how farmers grow our food. Eating "lower on the food chain"-getting less of our protein from meat and more from nuts, seeds, beans, legumes, grains, and vegetables-can make a huge difference in the energy consumption associated with our personal menus.
Regardless of what corporate marketers tell us, we cannot "save the world by shopping." Global climate change will dictate that the over-consumption binge of the last 50 years will have to come to an end. Changes in our eating habits and food systems will be a part of much larger changes in our culture. Adapting to the coming changes and avoiding further harm will require us to abandon the principle of immediate gratification and once again learn the benefits of frugality, conservation of resources, and thinking and acting with future generations in mind.
Changing our diets to healthier, more sustainable foods is not as hard as you might think. As the author Michael Pollan says: "Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants." Add to that: "Buy local and organic whenever possible." Doing so will help reduce agriculture's effect on global warming and contribute to an overall healthier environment and better future.
Before we leave this topic, here are a few more facts, observations, and predictions regarding the effects of global warming on agriculture.
Global warming effects on California agriculture will be devastating to the US, which has, up to now, been self-sufficient in food production largely because of the productivity of California's farm fields. Increasingly frequent heat waves may reduce California's long-term agricultural output. Due to a three-week heat wave in 2006, beef, dairy, and poultry losses amounted to $85 million in Fresno County alone. Thousands of cows in San Joaquin Valley dropped dead in the heat. The timing of ReseaRch PaPeR plant blossoming and the availability of pollinating insect may get out of sync. Fruit trees may yield less because there will be fewer cool nights (which help trees recover between harvests). Improved water management may be able to mitigate the problem of reduced mountain snowpack's to some extent, but water-management technology costs money! Expect higher food prices as the region that produces nearly half of US fruit and vegetables comes under climate-change stress.
Half a world away, China-the world's most populous nation-faces its own climate-induced agricultural meltdown. Chinese scientists recently stated that global warming and climate change will increase the instability of China's food production, reducing output of wheat, corn and rice by as much as 37% in the latter half of the century. They also noted that evaporation rates for some inland rivers would increase by 15%, exacerbating China's already severe shortages of water for drinking and irrigation.