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Potential Parenthood and Career Progression of Men and Women – A Simultaneous Hazards Approach

  • Martin Biewen EMAIL logo and Stefanie Seifert

Abstract

We analyze individual career transitions of men and women in Germany. Our particular focus is on the association of upward, downward and horizontal job changes with individual fertility. In contrast to most of the literature, we focus on potential rather than realized fertility. Based on mixed multivariate proportional hazard models with competing risks, we find a significant negative relationship between the contemporaneous probability of having a child and horizontal career transitions for women and a positive significant association of the hazard of parenthood with upward career transitions for men. These effects persist when we apply fixed-effects panel data models allowing for correlation of individual parenthood hazards with unobserved individual characteristics. Our results suggest clear gender differences in the relationship between career patterns and potential fertility.

JEL Classification: J6; J7; M5

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank an anonymous referee, Daniel Hamermesh, Josef Bruederl, Astrid Kunze, Regina Riphahn, Bernd Fitzenberger, Alex Bryson, Marie Paul, Aderonke Osikominu, Joachim Grammig, Markus Niedergesss, participants of the workshop "Perspectives on (Un-)Employment" at the IAB in Nuremberg, the 18th IZA European Summer School in Labor Economics, the third network workshop of the DFG Priority Program 1764 and the EALE 2016 for helpful comments and suggestions. This study uses the factually anonymous data of the Study “Working and Learning in a Changing World" (ALWA). Data access was provided via a Scientific Use File supplied by the Research Data Centre (FDZ) of the German Federal Employment Agency (BA) at the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).

Appendix

Table 7:

Summary statistics: female and male sample.

FemaleMale
VariableMeanSth. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.
AGE20.2780.4480.2880.453
AGE30.1410.3480.1860.389
AGE40.0740.2620.1010.301
AGE50.0380.1920.0470.212
AGE60.0140.1170.0160.125
Age27.5276.47328.7796.608
EDUClow0.8040.3970.7630.425
EDUChigh0.1420.350.190.392
EXPER80.34170.91181.46370.114
EAST0.0340.1820.0510.22
RELIGION0.8200.3840.740.439
BIRTHRATE9.9671.1049.8681.18
POTCA3.021.6413.2421.687
MARRIED0.2870.4530.1980.398
PARTNERhigh0.160.3670.0790.269
PARTNERlow0.3530.4780.3110.463
MOBIL0.1480.3990.1250.394
LDnosub9.1526.36411.34827.643
LDsub8.28327.6158.8525.483
PUBSEC0.2920.4550.1930.395
MANUFACT0.1750.380.3390.473
CONSTRUCTION0.0230.150.1260.332
AGRICULTURE0.0270.1610.0460.209
SERVICE0.2850.4520.1920.394
SOCIAL0.3230.4680.1630.369
COMPmaths2.7131.0672.2070.96
COMPverbal2.0330.8362.1790.882
UNEMPL8.7343.149.1293.254
UNEMPLdev0.2691.3550.2831.343
femEMPLOYMENT58.0807.11558.8841.755
FIRMSIZE4.4281.8054.8900.113
INTERunempl0.0110.1040.0280.164
INTERser.oth0.0040.0660.0060.075
PARTTIME0.0370.190.0130.113
LEVEL20.2370.4250.1690.375
LEVEL30.1310.3370.1710.377
LEVEL40.0810.2720.1170.322
LEVEL50.0290.1680.0590.236
#INTER0.1010.3420.1830.475
#PAST JOBS0.8811.2131.1551.386
Number of subordinates4.42517.9289.908100.085
SIOPS44.40010.29543.38811.419
N273207276443
  1. Person-month observations, Source: ALWA, own calculations.

Table 8:

Person-fixed effects estimation (number of subordinates).

WomenMen
UpDownHorizontalUpDownHorizontal
PREGHAZ0.03510.01720.2430.08200.03900.0264
(0.0284)(0.0717)(0.0560)(0.0375)(0.0538)(0.0485)
PARTNERhigh0.001010.001060.001220.0004150.001270.000143
(0.000572)(0.00119)(0.00108)(0.000873)(0.00128)(0.00113)
PARTNERlow0.0006440.00006090.0002050.0004140.0003760.000318
(0.000314)(0.000850)(0.000675)(0.000395)(0.000633)(0.000613)
CAR20.0003070.0006120.001890.00007540.0004140.000343
(0.000273)(0.000720)(0.000568)(0.000353)(0.000617)(0.000519)
CAR30.0007220.002020.005100.0009500.001970.00195
(0.000387)(0.000996)(0.000821)(0.000432)(0.000750)(0.000711)
CAR40.002350.005750.01060.003560.004760.00492
(0.000532)(0.00144)(0.00134)(0.000577)(0.00112)(0.00116)
EXPER0.00007630.0001540.0001520.00005850.0001930.000201
(0.0000234)(0.0000881)(0.0000653)(0.0000230)(0.0000472)(0.0000604)
EXPER squared8.14e-080.0000001820.0000003290.0000001140.0000001909.55e-08
(2.95e-08)(6.51e-08)(7.15e-08)(2.63e-08)(5.57e-08)(5.20e-08)
MOBIL0.0002190.0006850.001340.001160.0004400.0000553
(0.000286)(0.000805)(0.000615)(0.000424)(0.000518)(0.000604)
LDnosub0.00002300.00001350.0001290.00005510.00009590.0000305
(0.00000849)(0.0000245)(0.0000266)(0.0000122)(0.0000168)(0.0000177)
LDsub0.00007440.000008850.0001050.00009240.00005950.0000849
(0.0000102)(0.0000185)(0.0000193)(0.00000970)(0.0000140)(0.0000155)
PUBSEC0.001140.001860.004620.00007470.0006340.00527
(0.00112)(0.00327)(0.00221)(0.00150)(0.00354)(0.00259)
EDUClow0.0009600.01560.005220.0008760.006550.00896
(0.00409)(0.00823)(0.0180)(0.00375)(0.00624)(0.00846)
EDUChigh0.0006170.003970.007270.001630.006740.0244
(0.00468)(0.0115)(0.0194)(0.00496)(0.00831)(0.0100)
EAST0.001010.001570.002500.006280.006190.00231
(0.00225)(0.0204)(0.00526)(0.00259)(0.00299)(0.00506)
MANUFACT0.001370.006420.007080.0003600.0006140.00479
(0.00105)(0.00362)(0.00271)(0.00112)(0.00229)(0.00217)
CONSTRUCTION0.001040.003650.0006120.0006790.006100.00197
(0.00185)(0.00520)(0.00364)(0.00127)(0.00309)(0.00235)
AGRICULTURE0.004250.003810.003390.0004890.0008010.00669
(0.00221)(0.00789)(0.00486)(0.00189)(0.00404)(0.00363)
SERVICE0.001130.003930.003540.001060.0007540.00239
(0.00116)(0.00348)(0.00238)(0.00122)(0.00285)(0.00232)
SOCIAL0.0006150.006740.005690.002890.001620.00406
(0.00150)(0.00472)(0.00312)(0.00174)(0.00392)(0.00336)
UNEMPL0.0001280.0006050.0006180.0002860.0005730.000656
(0.000231)(0.000855)(0.000550)(0.000239)(0.000434)(0.000349)
UNEMPLdev0.00001790.0009780.00008460.0004210.0006940.000689
(0.000247)(0.000851)(0.000574)(0.000257)(0.000462)(0.000376)
femEMPLOYMENT0.00008450.0001650.000243
(0.0000807)(0.000195)(0.000178)
FIRMSIZE0.0003240.001150.0007700.0004530.0003880.00119
(0.000195)(0.000581)(0.000431)(0.000229)(0.000418)(0.000379)
YEAR0.0002150.0009960.0004760.0001700.001660.00367
(0.000287)(0.00112)(0.000835)(0.000292)(0.000598)(0.000769)
YEAR squared0.000001740.000005110.000003727.12e-070.00001190.00000133
(0.00000305)(0.00000884)(0.00000710)(3.63e-06)(0.00000637)(0.00000622)
LEVEL20.006960.008680.009590.00320
(0.000948)(0.00185)(0.00107)(0.00163)
LEVEL30.01540.01720.007300.01680.01610.00242
(0.00122)(0.00190)(0.00199)(0.00111)(0.00147)(0.00132)
LEVEL40.02130.02160.005090.02260.02040.000680
(0.00158)(0.00198)(0.00201)(0.00142)(0.00169)(0.00162)
LEVEL50.02390.02580.003670.02580.02450.000493
(0.00226)(0.00281)(0.00297)(0.00174)(0.00190)(0.00168)
AGE20.0004560.00001920.0009940.0002990.0001930.00116
(0.000341)(0.000842)(0.000679)(0.000471)(0.000764)(0.000705)
AGE30.00003130.0002540.0001950.0007910.0003380.00282
(0.000579)(0.00144)(0.00112)(0.000761)(0.00123)(0.00118)
AGE40.0002040.002280.0002080.001580.0005460.00682
(0.000830)(0.00228)(0.00175)(0.00103)(0.00169)(0.00168)
AGE50.0001710.001490.0001400.002240.00005020.0101
(0.00128)(0.00309)(0.00259)(0.00136)(0.00237)(0.00232)
AGE60.00007170.003660.001940.002450.0001690.0135
(0.00171)(0.00464)(0.00371)(0.00177)(0.00317)(0.00325)
INTERunempl0.01570.06620.1060.02220.06690.0968
(0.00259)(0.0118)(0.00684)(0.00277)(0.00894)(0.00608)
INTERservice0.001970.0005340.0479
(0.000909)(0.00199)(0.00223)
INTERoth10.0007960.01130.01970.0006570.002300.0323
(0.00103)(0.00700)(0.00478)(0.00155)(0.00220)(0.00506)
PARTTIME0.001150.003430.002840.001730.004280.0145
(0.00110)(0.00314)(0.00260)(0.00269)(0.00575)(0.00484)
#INTER0.004850.01110.02120.003830.01130.0152
(0.000993)(0.00320)(0.00229)(0.000849)(0.00186)(0.00169)
#PAST JOBS0.002030.009630.01990.002410.00540.0125
(0.000411)(0.00121)(0.00118)(0.000323)(0.000770)(0.000785)
N5,482 (273,207 person months)6,194 (276,443 person months)
  1. 1Summarizes interruptions due to service and other in female sample

  2. Standard errors in parentheses; p<0.10, p<0.05, *** p<0.01;Source: ALWA, own calculations

Table 9:

Spell-fixed effects estimation (number of subordinates).

WomenMen
UpDownHorizontalUpDownHorizontal
PREGHAZ0.05460.04410.1910.1170.04030.0388
(0.0224)(0.0745)(0.0479)(0.0386)(0.0570)(0.0463)
PARTNERhigh0.0007750.0009070.002110.0009230.0001970.000298
(0.000586)(0.00146)(0.00102)(0.000879)(0.00139)(0.00105)
PARTNERlow0.0004480.0001920.001030.0003640.0001010.000206
(0.000273)(0.000805)(0.000631)(0.000410)(0.000649)(0.000588)
CAR20.0001720.000005100.001310.0004410.0009910.000821
(0.000241)(0.000683)(0.000532)(0.000382)(0.000642)(0.000499)
CAR30.0008620.001560.006180.0009120.001760.00428
(0.000336)(0.000991)(0.000760)(0.000480)(0.000816)(0.000689)
CAR40.002550.004940.01210.004240.004280.00959
(0.000457)(0.00149)(0.00114)(0.000650)(0.00121)(0.00107)
EXPER0.0001220.0002450.0004450.0001880.0002510.000260
(0.0000219)(0.0000624)(0.0000500)(0.0000309)(0.0000544)(0.0000599)
EXPER squared0.0000001800.0000003530.0000007160.0000002500.0000002980.000000463
(2.25e-08)(6.69e-08)(5.39e-08)(2.71e-08)(5.56e-08)(4.49e-08)
MOBIL0.00003860.0005120.002520.001540.0005040.0000107
(0.000282)(0.000958)(0.000553)(0.000436)(0.000555)(0.000595)
EAST0.004540.04080.002150.005060.007570.00892
(0.00434)(0.0689)(0.0102)(0.00392)(0.00285)(0.00816)
UNEMPL0.0001700.001410.0004280.0003300.001070.000742
(0.000221)(0.000612)(0.000507)(0.000371)(0.000684)(0.000556)
UNEMPLdev0.0003050.001090.0002200.0005060.001130.000936
(0.000236)(0.000634)(0.000530)(0.000378)(0.000688)(0.000561)
femEMPLOYMENT0.00005810.00004670.000217
(0.0000995)(0.000255)(0.000181)
YEAR0.0009370.0007270.001490.0008510.002360.00540
(0.000272)(0.000821)(0.000630)(0.000428)(0.000739)(0.000775)
YEAR squared0.000009100.000005970.0000004240.000001390.00001950.00000575
(0.00000286)(0.00000694)(0.00000610)(0.00000462)(0.00000804)(0.00000655)
AGE20.0004650.001100.001510.0008430.0002220.000566
(0.000338)(0.000821)(0.000614)(0.000455)(0.000855)(0.000708)
AGE30.0002550.001010.005480.001210.0005210.000577
(0.000553)(0.00145)(0.000968)(0.000734)(0.00132)(0.00112)
AGE40.001210.0005560.006920.001820.001050.000415
(0.000815)(0.00224)(0.00145)(0.000995)(0.00179)(0.00152)
AGE50.0004830.001650.005410.001810.0009660.000360
(0.00119)(0.00286)(0.00210)(0.00129)(0.00249)(0.00199)
AGE60.00007350.006080.002020.001380.0004920.00220
(0.00151)(0.00469)(0.00278)(0.00160)(0.00326)(0.00253)
INTERunempl0.01860.07660.1160.02430.07460.108
(0.00275)(0.0129)(0.00741)(0.00292)(0.00962)(0.00663)
INTERservice0.006170.006690.0651
(0.00104)(0.00194)(0.00331)
INTERoth10.0005860.01060.02510.002620.001220.0343
(0.00104)(0.00689)(0.00507)(0.00169)(0.00230)(0.00564)
N5,482 (273,207 person months)6,194 (276,443 person months)
  1. 1 Summarizes interruptions due to service and other in female sample.

  2. Standard errors in parentheses; *  p<0.10, **  p<0.05, p<0.01;Source: ALWA, own calculations.

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Published Online: 2018-3-7

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