Skip to content
Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter November 21, 2018

Would a Basic Income Guarantee Reduce the Motivation to Work? An Analysis of Labor Responses in 16 Trial Programs

  • Richard Gilbert EMAIL logo , Nora A. Murphy , Allison Stepka , Mark Barrett and Dianne Worku
From the journal Basic Income Studies

Abstract

Many opponents of BIG programs believe that receiving guaranteed subsistence income would act as a strong disincentive to work. In contrast, various areas of empirical research in psychology (studies of intrinsic motivation; non-pecuniary benefits of work on social identity and purpose; and reactions to financial windfalls such as lottery winnings) suggest that a BIG would not lead to meaningful reductions in work. To test these competing predictions, a comprehensive review of BIG outcome studies reporting data on adult labor responses was conducted. The results indicate that 93 % of reported outcomes support the prediction of no meaningful work reductions when the criterion for support is set at less than a 5 % decrease in either average hours worked per week or the rate of labor participation. Overall, these results indicate that adult labor responses would show no substantial impact following a BIG intervention.

References

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017). Robots and jobs: evidence from US labor markets. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper.10.3386/w23285Search in Google Scholar

Alzúa, M. L., Cruces, G., & Ripani, L. (2013). Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America. Journal of Population Economics, 26(4), 1255–1284.10.1007/s00148-012-0458-0Search in Google Scholar

Arya, A., Kapoor, A., & Konwar, D. (2014). Piloting basic income transfers in Madhya Pradesh, India. UNICEF.http://sewabharat.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Report-on-Unconditional-Cash-Transfer-Pilot-Project-in-Madhya-Pradesh.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

Avent, R. (2017). The great innovation debate. In D. Franklin (ed.), Megatech: Technology in 2050 (pp. 76–87). Great Britain: Profile Books.Search in Google Scholar

Avery, R., Harpaz, I., & Liao, H. (2004). Work centrality and post-award work behavior of lottery winners. Journal of Psychology, 138(5), 404–420.10.3200/JRLP.138.5.404-420Search in Google Scholar

Banerjee, A., Hanna, R., Kreindler, G. & Olken, B. A. (2015). Debunking the stereotype of the lazy welfare recipient: Evidence from cash transfer programs worldwide. Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Research Working Paper Series, RWP15-076.10.2139/ssrn.2703447Search in Google Scholar

Blattman, C., Fiala, N. & Martinez, S. (2013). The economic and social returns to cash transfers: Evidence from a Ugandan aid program. Unpublished manuscript. New York: Columbia University.Search in Google Scholar

Bryniolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in the time of brilliant technologies. New York: W.W. Norton.Search in Google Scholar

Chaudhury, N., Friedman, J., & Onishi, J. (2013). Philippines conditional cash transfer program impact evaluation 2012. World Bank report.Search in Google Scholar

Chui, M., Manyika, J., & Miremadi, M. (2016). Where machines could replace humans – And where they can’t (yet). McKinsey Quarterly report.Search in Google Scholar

Concordant, A. (1795/1988). Esquisse d’un tableau historique des progres de l’esprit humain. Paris: Agasse.Search in Google Scholar

Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (1972). Income maintenance experiments: Material submitted to the Committee on Finance. United States Senate, Russell B. Long, Chairman.Search in Google Scholar

Dillow, C., & Rainwater, B. (2017). Why free money for everyone is Silicon Valley’s next big idea. Fortune.com. Retrieved from http://fortune.com/2017/06/29/universal-basic-income-free-money-silicon-valley/Search in Google Scholar

Faraker, B., & Hedenus, A. (2009). Gambling windfall decisions: lottery winners and employment behavior. UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal, 13(2), 1–15.Search in Google Scholar

Fernandez, F., & Saldarriaga, V. (2014). Do benefit recipients change their labor supply after receiving the cash transfer? Evidence from the Peruvian Juntos program. IZA Journal of Labor and Development, 3(2). doi:10.1186/2193-9020-3-2Search in Google Scholar

Flinders, K. (2017). AI and robots will create political instability until humans find new occupations. Computer Weekly. Retrieved from http://www.computerweekly.com/news/450415491/AI-and-robots-will-create-political-instability-until-humans-find-new-occupationsSearch in Google Scholar

Ford, M. (2015). Rise of the robots: Technology and the threat of a jobless future. New York: Basic Books.Search in Google Scholar

Frey, C., & Osborne, M. (2013). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization? Oxford University Working Paper. Retrieved from http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019Search in Google Scholar

Gabe, T., & Falk, G. (1995). Welfare: work (dis)incentives in the welfare system. Congressional Research Service Report, (95–105).Search in Google Scholar

Gagné, M., & Deci, E. L. (2005). Self-determination theory and work motivation. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 26(4), 331–362.10.1002/job.322Search in Google Scholar

Galiani, S., & McEven, P. (2013). The heterogeneous impact of conditional cash transfers. Journal of Economics, 103(2013), 85–96.Search in Google Scholar

Gates, B. (2017). The robot that takes your job should pay taxes. Interview with Quartz Media. Retrieved from https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/Search in Google Scholar

Goldsmith, S. (2010). The Alaska permanent fund (PFD) dividend: A case study in implementation of a basic income guarantee. Paper presented at the 13th Basic Income Earth Network Congress. Brazil: University of Sao Paulo.Search in Google Scholar

Heath, N. (2016). Amazon, robots, and the new rise of the automated warehouse. Tech Republic. Retrieved from http://www.techrepublic.com/article/amazon-robots-and-the-near-future-rise-of-the automated-warehouse/Search in Google Scholar

Hum, D., & Simpson, W. (1993). Economic response to a guaranteed annual income: experience from Canada and the United States. Journal of Labor Economics, 11(1), 263–296.10.1086/298335Search in Google Scholar

Jacobs, E. (2016). Switzerland’s base income vote turns finance reform into a democratic spectacle. Inverse. com. Retrieved from https://www.inverse.com/article/11303-switzerland-s-base-income-vote-turns-finance-reform-into-a-democratic-spectacleSearch in Google Scholar

Javelosa, J., & Houser, K. (2017). This company replaced 90 % of its workforce with machines. Here’s what happened. World Economic Forum.org. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/after-replacing-90-of-employees-with-robots this-companys-productivity-soaredSearch in Google Scholar

Johnson. (2017, May 27). Why translators have the blues. The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21722609-profession-under-pressure-why-translators-have-bluesSearch in Google Scholar

Kaplan, H. (1987). Lottery winners: the myth and reality. Journal of Gambling Behavior, 3(3), 168–178. doi:10.1007/bf01367438Search in Google Scholar

Kaplan, J. (2017). Don’t fear the robots. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-fear-the-robots-1500646623Search in Google Scholar

Kaufmann, J. (2010). BIG hopes, BIG questions: Namibia’s Basic Income Guarantee. Journal of Civil Society and Social Transformation, 1, 38–47.Search in Google Scholar

Keher, K., McDonald, J., & Moffitt, R. (1980). Final report of the gary income maintenance experiment: labor supply. Unpublished Manuscript, Mathematica Policy Research. New Jersey: Princeton.Search in Google Scholar

Kershaw, D., & Skidmore, F. (1974). The new jersey graduated work incentive experiment. Unpublished Manuscript, Mathematica Policy Research. New Jersey: Princeton.Search in Google Scholar

King, M. L. (1967). Where do we go from here: Chaos or community?. New York: Harper & Row.Search in Google Scholar

Kirk, J., & Wall, C. (2011). Work and identity: Historical and cultural contexts (Identity Studies in the Social Sciences). New York: Palgrave-Macmillian.10.1057/9780230305625Search in Google Scholar

Knapp, G. (1984). The Alaska permanent fund dividend program: economic effects and public attitudes. Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska.Search in Google Scholar

Lampman, R. (1965). Approaches to the reduction of poverty. American Economic Review, 55(1/2), 521–529.Search in Google Scholar

Lanier, J. (2013). Who owns the future? New York: Simon & Schuster.Search in Google Scholar

Latham, G. P., & Pinder, C. C. (2005). Work motivation theory and research at the dawn of the Twenty-First Century. Annual Review Of Psychology, 56, 485–516.10.1146/annurev.psych.55.090902.142105Search in Google Scholar

Lee, L., Harrar, W. & Kerachsky, S. (1976). The Rural Income Maintenance Reports (North Carolina - Iowa). U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare. DOI: ,Search in Google Scholar

Lohr, S. (2017). The New York Times Retrieved from IBM gives Watson a new challenge: Your tax return. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/technology/ibm-watson-tax-return.html.Search in Google Scholar

Maluccio, J. & Flores, R. (2004). Impact evaluation of a conditional cash transfer program: The Nicaraguan Red de Protección Social. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.Search in Google Scholar

Maslow, A. (1954). Motivation and personality (2nd ed.). New York: Harper & Bros.Search in Google Scholar

Meola, A. (2017). Shop online and get your items delivery by a drone delivery service: the future Amazon and Domino’s have envisioned for us. Business Insider. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/author/andrew-meolaSearch in Google Scholar

Moffit, R. (1976). The labor supply response in the gary experiment. Journal of Human Resources, 14(4), 477–487.10.2307/145318Search in Google Scholar

More, T. (1516/1978). Utopia. Harmondsworth: Penguin.Search in Google Scholar

Moynihan, D. (1973). The politics of a guaranteed income: The Nixon Administration and the Family Assistance Plan. New York: Random House.Search in Google Scholar

Mukherjee, S. (2017). AI vs. MD: what happens when diagnosis is automated? The New Yorker. Retrieved from https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/04/03/ai-versus-mdSearch in Google Scholar

Newman, P. (2017). The fully automated car update: how self-driving cars are poised to move into the mainstream and upend the automotive industry. Business Insider Intelligence. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road by-2020-2015-5-6Search in Google Scholar

Paine, T. (1796/1974). Agrarian justice. In P. S. Foner (ed.), The life and major writings of Thomas Paine. New York: Citadel Press 605–620.Search in Google Scholar

Perkio, J. (2014). Universal basic income: a new tool for developmental policy. Experiences of basic income: Case studies in Namibia, India, and Brazil (pp. 5-9). Unpublished manuscript. International Solidarity Work.Search in Google Scholar

Peterson, R. (2016). The driverless truck is coming and it’s going to automate millions of jobs. TechCrunch. Retrieved from https://techcrunch.com/2016/04/25/the-driverless-truck-is-coming-and-its going-to-automate-millions-of-jobs/Search in Google Scholar

Pike, D. H. (2009). Drive: The surprising truth about what motivates us. New York, NY: Riverhead Books.Search in Google Scholar

Popper, N. (2016). Banks bet on the next big thing: financial chatbots. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/27/business/dealbook/banks-bet-on-the-next-big-thingfinancialchatbots.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=FC202FF2C5CBDB685BA4889EB3848F80&gwt=paySearch in Google Scholar

Porter, E. (2016, May 31). A universal basic income is a poor tool to fight poverty. New York Times Economic Scene. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/business/economy/universal-basic-income poverty.htmlSearch in Google Scholar

Rogers, C. (1963). The actualizing tendency in relation to ‘motive’ and to consciousness. In M. Jones (Ed.), Nebraska Symposium on Motivation (pp. 1–24). Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press.Search in Google Scholar

Russell, B. (1918/1966). Roads to freedom: Socialism, Anarchism and Syndicalism. London: Unwin Books.10.4324/9780203714430Search in Google Scholar

Schjoedt, R. (2016). India’s basic income experiment. Pathways Perspectives on International Development, 1(21), 1–8.Search in Google Scholar

Shamsuddin, M. (2015). Labor market effects of a female stipend programme in Bangladesh. Oxford Development Studies, 43(4), 425–447. doi:10.1080/136008.2015.1056133Search in Google Scholar

Silverberg, D. (2017). 3D printing will make the construction industry more sustainable. Motherboard. Retrieved from https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/qvpw5b/3d-printing-will-make the-construction-industry-more-sustainableSearch in Google Scholar

Skoufias, E., Unar, M., & de Cossio, T. (2013). The poverty impacts of cash and in-kind transfers: experimental evidence from rural Mexico. Journal of Developmental Effectiveness, 5(4), 401–429. doi:10.1080/19439342.2013.843578Search in Google Scholar

Smith, D. (2016). Amazon just solved the worst part of the group store experience. Business Insider, 5 December. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-go-solves-worst-part-of-grocery-stores-2016-12Search in Google Scholar

Soares, F., Ribas, R., & Osorio, R. (2010). Evaluating the impact of Brazil’s Bolsa Familia cash transfer programs in comparative perspective. Latin American Research Review, 45(2), 173–190.10.1017/S0023879100009390Search in Google Scholar

Sodha, S. (2016). The Guardian.com Retrieved from Is Finland’s basic universal income a solution to automation, fewer jobs and lower wages? https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/19/basic-income-finland-low-wages-fewer-jobs.Search in Google Scholar

Standing, G. (2013). India’s experiment in basic income grants. Global Dialogue Newsletter for the International Sociological Association, 3(5). Retrieved from http://globaldialogue.isa-sociology.org/indias-great-experiment- the-transformative-potential-of- basic-income-grantsSearch in Google Scholar

Standing, G. (2017). Basic income: And how we can make it happen. UK: Pelican, an imprint of Penguin Books.10.2307/j.ctv1bvnf53Search in Google Scholar

Stern, A., & Kravitz, L. (2016). Raising the floor: How a universal basic income can renew our economy and rebuild the American Dream. New York: Public Affairs.Search in Google Scholar

Thomas, K. W. (2009). Intrinsic motivation at work: What really drives employee engagement (2nd ed.). San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler.Search in Google Scholar

United States Department of Health & Human Services. (1983). Overview of the final report of the seattle-denver income maintenance experiment. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation.Search in Google Scholar

Van Den Broeck, A., Ferris, D., & Chang, C. (2016). A review of self-determination theory’s basic psychological needs at work. Journal of Management, 42(5), 1195–1229. doi:10.1177/0149206316632058Search in Google Scholar

Van Parijs, P., & Vanderborght, Y. (2017). Basic Income: A radical proposal for a free society and a sane economy. Boston: Harvard College.10.4159/9780674978072Search in Google Scholar

White, R. (1959). Motivation reconsidered: the concept of competence. Psychological Review, 66(5), 297–333. doi:10.1037/h0040934Search in Google Scholar

Yan, N. (2016). Automated inequality. Harvard Political Review. Retrieved from http://harvardpolitics.com/world/automation/Search in Google Scholar

Published Online: 2018-11-21

© 2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 19.4.2024 from https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/bis-2018-0011/html
Scroll to top button