Earnings management prediction (a study of company’s life cycle)

This research aims to test whether deferred tax expense and accruals affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline and to avoid reporting losses at the stage of the company life cycle period from 2000 to 2007. Earnings management is an effort made by the manager with the purpose to increase or decrease the profit. Deferred tax expense is the expense arising from temporary differences between accounting income and taxable income. The accrual is to recognize revenue when it is generated and recognized expense in the period incurred, regardless of the time of receipt or payment of cash. The life cycle is divided into stages of company, namely start-up, growth, mature and decline. Results of this research is that there is no effect of deferred tax expense in detecting earnings management in order to avoid reporting earnings decline and to avoid reporting losses for the growth and mature stage of. Accrual has no effect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline in both growth and mature stage. To avoid reporting losses, accruals in detecting earnings management influence the growth stage, while the mature stage accrual does not affect in detecting earnings management. This research does not test on startup stage and decline because the data sample is not sufficient for a stage to be tested.


INTRODUCTION
Earnings have a very important role in a company because they can be used for a measure whether a company is successful in a business. By using earnings, a company can survive and perform various developments to achive business progress, and can be used as a basis for decision making on the company's stakeholders. Earnings are often used for several purposes, such as: (1) as a basis for giving bonuses to managers, (2) to calculate the taxable income and (3) as criteria to assess the performance of the company.
Phillips, Pincus and Rego (2003) revealed the presence of three main motivations that encourage companies to conduct earnings management: (1) to avoid earnings decline, (2) to avoid losses and (3) to avoid the failure of predictions made by analysts. The first motivation aims to avoid reporting earnings decline related to income smoothing hypothesis. The second motivation aims to avoid losses because losses have potential to lower stock prices, in turn it can decrease investor and creditor confidence and encourage tax examinations by tax authorities. The third motivation aims to avoid fail-ures made by the analysis. As according to Stice et al. (2005) there are four kinds of factors that motivate manager to conduct earnings management in his financial statement; i.e. to meet internal targets, to meet external expectations, to level or smooth earnings (income smoothing) and to dress the financial statements for the purpose of an initial public offering or to obtain a loan from the bank.
Accruals basis has been known as the basis used in accounting related to the recognition of income or revenue. This accruals basis concept provides flexibility for managers to modify earnings by raising or lowering the portion of accruals in making financial statements. Accruals can be divided into two parts, they are the accruals that are naturally present in the process of preparing financial statements (non-discretionary accruals) and part of the results that has been modified (discretionary accruals) (Fivi and Ira 2008). Both types of accruals should be completely understood by the decision makers in the company. Corporate managers try to minimize tax that should be paid by increasing accruals to make profit rate lower (Maydew 1997 in Januar andAgus 2004).
Several researches have been conducted to detect earnings management by using accruals. Yuliati (2004) explains the facts on the existence of weaknesses in the application of the accruals concept. Researchers named Phillips, Pincus and Rego (2003) have made use of the presence of other variables that can be used to detect the deferred tax expense. They argue that in measuring manager flexibility, differed tax expense is better than accruals since accounting rules provide more flexibility to managers than the tax rules. Errors in measuring accruals model can be reduced by focusing on deferred tax expense compared by dividing total accruals of company into discretionary component and non-discretionary component.
Deferred tax expense and accruals, in detecting earnings management, can be explained at each stage of the company life cycle. Start-up stage, the profit earned is still negative, deferred tax expense is also still quite negative and the company does not play in the accrual component so that the behavior of earnings management has not affected yet because the profit generated is still negative. Growth stage, cash flow begins to increase so the profits obtained are still relatively small, deferred tax expense is also still relatively small and discretionary accruals begin to associate with company growth so it will give motivation to undertake income-increasing earnings management (Yuliati 2004). Mature stage, cash flow will increase rapidly and the profit produced is also greater. At this stage, the company will perform accrual policies that will lead the profits to decrease (incomedecreasing earnings management) with the intent of reducing the tax effects that will motivate to perform income minimization and increasing income to increase profits in order to obtain larger bonuses. Decline stage, consumers experience boredom of products then the cash flow will decrease and the profit will also decrease. At this stage the company will conduct accruals policy, for deferred tax expense will look small and will motivate the company to perform income smoothing so that the company appears to be in stable condition.
This study, as a replication of the study conducted by Phillips, Pincus and Rego (2003), is to test whether deferred tax expense is more powerful in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting profit decline and to avoid reporting losses and to examine the effect of accruals in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline and to avoid reporting losses based on each stage of its life cycle.
The problem of this study is formulated as fol-lows: (1) Does deferred tax expense affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting a decline in earnings based on each stage of the company life cycle? (2) Does accrual affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting a decline in earnings based on each stage of the company life cycle? (3) Does deferred tax expense affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses based on each stage of the company life cycle? (4) Does accrual affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses based on each stage of the company life cycle?
In accordance with the formulation of the problem and the background of the problem that have been outlined before, the objectives of this study are: (1) to analyze the effect of deferred tax expense in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting a profit decline at each stage of the company life cycle. (2) To analyze the effect of accruals in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting a profit decline at each stage of the company life cycle. (3) To analyze the effect of deferred tax expense in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses at each stage of the company life cycle. (4) To analyze the effect of accruals in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses at each stage of the company life cycle.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPO-THESIS Accruals Accounting
Accrual can be divided into 2 (Siti & Zulaikhah 2003), they are Discretionary Accrual (DA) and Non Discretionary Accrual (NDA). Discretionary accrual is the recognition of accruals income or expense that is free and not regulated and becomes management policy options. While non discretionary accrual is recognition of accruals earning this is subject to a reasonable standard or generally accepted in accounting principles. Healy in Scott (2003) says that managers manage its net profit by controlling various accruals, where accruals include the proportion of income and expense items in the balance sheet that do not appear in the statement of cash flows.

Deferred Tax Expense
Deferred tax expense is recognized and presented as an expense in the income statement of current year , except for income tax expense resulting from transactions or events that are credited or charged directly to equity, either in the same period and in different periods, business combination which is substantially an acquisition, arising from the differ-ence in accounting earnings, i.e. earnings in the financial statements for the benefit of external parties and fiscal earnings (earnings are used as the basis for calculating the tax). Phillips, Pincus and Rego (2003) describes the deferred tax expense is expense arising from temporary differences between accounting earnings (earnings in the financial statements for external users) and taxable earnings (earnings that are used as the basis for calculating the tax).

Life Cycle
According to Weston and Brigham (1981) in Mamduh & Halim (2005), the cycle of a company or an industry will tend to be described as a form of curve S (S-shaped curve) as seen in Figure 1. Mamduh and Halim (2005) provide guidance on the classification of company year observation into life cycles, they are: (a) start-up is the stage of introductory where the company begins to build new product infrastructure so that the flow of acceptance is not so great. (b) Growth is the stage of growth where the company's products began to be accepted by consumers and demand began to grow rapidly and thus increase cash flow and profits will begin to increase as well. (c) Mature is the stage of maturity where the company's products are widely accepted by the public and thus increase cash flows from sales, and profits will increase rapidly. (d) Decline is the stage of decline where people tend to experience boredom with the company's products so that cash flow will decline and profits will decline as well.

Earnings Management and Deferred Tax Expense
Earnings management in the narrow sense is only related to the choice of accounting methods. Earnings management is defined as the behavior of managers "to play" with the component of discretionary accruals in determining earnings. In a broader sense, earnings management is the manager's actions to improve or reduce earnings re-ported currently on a unit where managers are responsible, without resulting in an increase or decrease long-term economic probability of the units (Sugiri in Agnes (2001: 92).
Deferred tax expense is only related to temporary differences between accounting profit and taxable profit. Large deferred tax expense will reduce the level of profits obtained by the company, and vice versa small deferred tax expense will increase the level of profits obtained by the company.
At the stage of start-up, the profit earned is still negative so the deferred tax expense is also still negative and thus it sill has no effect on the behavior of earnings management. At the stage of growth, cash flow starts to increase, the profits earned is also still small so that the deferred tax expense is also still relatively small, and thus it will motivate company to undertake income-increasing earnings management (Yuliati 2004). At the stage of mature, the cash flow will increase rapidly so the profit generated thus it will motivate to perform income minimization in reducing taxes and increasing income to increase profits in order to obtain larger bonuses. At the stage of decline, consumers experience boredom of products, so cash flow will decrease and profit will also decrease and thus the company will be motivated to perform income smoothing so that the company appears to be in stable condition. From the explanation before, it can be submitted 2 (two) hypothesis as follows: H1a: Deferred tax expense affects earnings management to avoid reporting a profit decline at each stage of the life cycle. H1b: Deferred tax expense affects earnings management to avoid reporting losses at each stage of the life cycle.

Earnings Management and Accrual
Report making, using accrual method, is used by managers to manipulate earnings with the aim to influence the decisions of stakeholders. Hence there is a tendency for managers to manage earnings is such away by applying the income-increasing discretionary accruals, it is the effort to manipulate earnings by lowering the level of earnings at a certain level to reverse the accrual policies undertaken previously.
At the stage of start-up, the company does not play in the accrual component so the behavior of earnings management still has not effect because the profit generated is still negative. At this stage of growth, discretionary accruals begin to associate with company's growth started and thus it will give motivation to undertake income-increasing earnings management (Yuliati 2004). At the stage of mature, the cash flow will increase rapidly so the profit generated will also be larger and the company will conduct accrual policies that will lead to decreased profits (income-decreasing earnings management) with the intent of reducing the tax effects and thus it will motivate to perform income minimization in lower tax and increasing income to increase profits in order to obtain larger bonuses. At the stage of decline, consumers experience boredom of products and then the cash flow decreases and profit will also decrease so that the company will undertake accruals policy for deferred tax expense will look small and thus it will motivate the company to perform income smoothing so that the company appears to be in stable condition. From the explanation before, it can be arranged 2 (two) hypothesis as follows: H2a: Accrual affects earnings management to avoid reporting a profit decline at each stage of the life cycle. H2b: Accrual affects earnings management to avoid reporting losses based on each stage of the life cycle.

RESEARCH METHOD Research Design
This research uses quantitative methods in analyzing the data because statistical test used is logistic regression analysis. Based on the characteristics of the problem, this study is included in the category of historical research, i.e. a study of the problems associated with the events or the company's past financial statement. This study is also a confirmatory study aimed to test the hypothesis. Based on the type of data, this study is an archive research where the data obtained based on filing documents or other records that come from the company's internal data and external data, i.e. publication of data obtained from the other party.

Classification of Company's Life Cycle Stage
Company-year observation is classified into four stages of life cycle, namely start-up, growth, mature and decline. Classification method used is based on the method applied by Black (1988) and Anthony and Rames (1992) in Sari Atmini (2001). Criteria of classification at the stage of start-up are: (1) The company that has established long enough (about 5 years, making it possible to be classified). (2) The company was not formed as a result of a merger or other form of restructuring. (3) The company started sales of not more than one year before it went public. (4) Only company's data during the first three years after the date of the company establishment was included. (5) The company was founded between 1980 and 2007. According to Anthony and Ramesh (1992) in Juniarti and Rini Limanjaya (2005), company with high sales growth, in general, is a company that is still in the early stages of development and has high growth opportunities, while company with low sales growth enables the company to enter the stage of decline.
Classification of company-year observations into the stages of growth, mature and decline is based on three classification variables, namely percent sales growth (SG), dividend payments per year as a percentage of the profit (DP), and company's age (AGE). There are four steps to classify into life cycle stages, they are: (1) For each classification variable is calculated using equation of Sales Growth (SG), DP and AGE. For SG and DP are calculated based on each average and AGE starting from the year of establishment to 2007. (2) For SG quintile is given the name SK SG, the highest quintile is the fifth quintile is given a score of 1 (growth), the fourth quintile is given a score of 2 (growth/mature), the third quintile is given a score of 3 (mature), the second quintile is given a score of 4 (mature/decline) and the first quintile is given a score of 5 (decline). (3) Variables of AGE and DP are combined based on each quintile and given the name of SK ADP. Then they are sorted based on the first quintile of the DP. The first quintile of DP contains SK ADP, and then the highest SK ADP subtracted by the lowest SK ADP and divided into 3 quintiles. Of the 3 quintiles is named ADP cycle. (4) From the results, the score of ADP cycle will be added to SG SK. And came up with the name of the combined score (SK G). The highest combined score subtracted by the lowest combined score and divided into 5 quintiles. A company is said growth if it is in the first and second quintile. A company is said mature if it is in the third and fourth quintile. A company is said decline if it is in the fifth quintile.
The formula used to obtain the data DP, SG, and AGE is as follows: (2)

AGEt = (AGE current year) -(AGE based year)
(3) Explanation: DIVt = dividend in year t IBEDt = income before extraordinary item and discontinued operation in year t SALESt = net sales in year t AGE = current year AGE based year = company establishment year

Definition of Operation and Measure of Variables Deferred Tax Expense
Deferred tax expense is the tax expense arising from temporary differences between accounting earnings (earnings in the financial statements for external parties) with taxable income (income used as the basis for calculating the tax) (Phillips, Pincus and SO Rego 2003). This variable is an independent variable and its value is taken in the Income Statement. This variable is measured by: X1 = DTE / Total Asset.
(4) Accrual (Accrual Component) Accrual component is a non-cash event recognition in the income statement but is expected to be received or paid, usually in cash in the future (Ahmed Riahi/Belkaovi 2001: 14). This variable is calculated by using the model of Healy (1985) in Phillips, Pincus, and Rego (2003). TAccit = EBEIit -(CFOit -EIDOit).
(5) Where: TAccit = total accruals of firm in year t EBEIit = earnings before extraordinary items of company i in year t CFOit = operating cash flow (cash flows from operations) of company i in year t EIDOit = extraordinary items and cash flows (extraordinary items and discontinued operations) from the discontinued operations of company i in year t.

Earnings Management (Y)
Earnings management is a form of manipulation or financial statements that become part of communication between managers and external parties that can be measured by discretionary accruals (DA). Accrual measurement is theoretically more attractive, because accrual is a collection of a number of net impacts on the accounting policies that includes portfolio determining income. The model used to calculate earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline and avoid reporting earnings losses with the following equation: First, to avoid reporting earning decline using EM 1 in the range of -0.01 to 0.01 (6) Where: EM it = 1 if the change in net profit of company i from year t-1 to year t divided by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 ≥ 0 and <0.01 EM it = 0 if the change in net profit of company i from year t-1 to year t divided by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 ≥ -0.01 and <0 DTEit = Deferred Tax Expense of company i in year t divided by total assets at the end of year t-1. TAccit = total accruals of company i in year t ε it = Error term. Second, to avoid reporting earnings losses by using EM 2 ranging from -0.02 to 0.02.
(7) Where: EM it = 1 if the net profit of company i in year t divided by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 ≥ 0 and <0.02 EM it = 0 if the net profit of firm i from year t divided by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 ≥ 0.02 and <0 DTEit = Deferred Tax Expense of company i in year t divided by total assets at the end of year t-1. TAccit = total accruals of company i in year t ε it = Error term.

Data Collection Method
The data collected, in this study, is the quantitative data derived from secondary data. The collection of this secondary data is in the form of financial statements consisting of balance sheet, income statement, along with notes to the financial statements of manufacturing company in 2000-2007. Method of data collection is documentation, i.e. data collection techniques which are taken from the summary of financial statements analyzed for research purposes, and are obtained from an agency, internet, and books.

Analysis Techniques
Data analysis techniques used in this study are as follows: (1) (1985). (6) To assess the feasibility of a model based on the value of Chi-Square at the Hosmer and Lemeshow's> 0.1 so it logistic regression models are feasible to be used for further analysis. This is because there is no real difference between the predicted classification and the observed one. (7) To assess the overall model (overall fit model) based on the function of Likelihood (L). By comparing the value of -2LogL y enter constant value and independent variables. If the value goes down then the model can be said fit. The steps performed in the classification of life cycle are as follows: (1) Data from sales is counted, to search for average % Sales Growth, the average % DP, and the age of each company. (2) Data sorted from the minimum rate to the maximum rate based on average % Sales Growth, after that it is calculated to find the value ranges of the quintile, which are then given quintile number 1-2-3-4-5 which means that the cycle is worth 5-4-3-2-1. (3) On an average% DP, sorted from the minimum rate to the maximum rate, after that it is calculated to find the value ranges of the quintile, and then given quintile number 1-2-3-4-5, but numbers for its life cycle have not been determined. (4) At the age of each company is also done the same thing as the % DP, and then from the value of existing quintile on % DP and Age is merged to determine quintile from the joint between % DP and age. (5) Data that has been completely calculated from the joined quintile % DP and Age, and then totaled with the number of existing cycle on average % Sales Growth, and then to determine the value of its quintile. (6) The final step is the determination of its life cycle; the life cycle is obtained based on the combined end value of % average Sales Growth, % DP, and age.

DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION Overview of the Study Subjects
The subjects in this study were companies listed on the Stock Exchange during 2000 to 2007 were selected by purposive sampling. The samples are selected on the basis of suitability characteristics of the sample with sample selection criteria specified (see Table 1). Table 2 illustrates the calculation of quintiles used to classify companies into the life cycle of a combined score among SG, DP and AGE.
In Table 2, if the score of company is 5 then it enters quintile number 1, i.e. a company that is in the stage of growth. Conversely, if the score of the company is 6, so the company enters quintile number 2, i.e. a company that is in the stage of growth as well. If the score of the company is 6, so the company enters quintile number 3, i.e. a company that is in the stage of matures and so on. However, if the score of company is 6, it can be seen based on age (AGE) of the company, the greater the age of the company then the company enters the stage of mature. In the last step, the determination of its life cycle is obtained base on a combined end value of % average Sales Growth, % DP, and Age. Table 3 presents the life cycle ratings for 15 companies.

Descriptive Analysis on Variables Classification
Before testing the hypothesis, first performed a descriptive analysis of the variables in the classification that will be used in the research. In this study, researcher does not analyze the sample of company at the stage of decline, because at that stage there is only one company and if the sample of company is use, so data are not valid. Table 4 presents the variables used to classify companies into their life cycle. For companies that are at the stage of growth, the average percentage of sales growth is amounted to 21.89%, the growth is much greater than the sales growth at the stage of mature and decline is only amounted to 11.80% and 12.00%. This means that the growth rate of company's sales percentage at the stage of growth is greater than the company that is at the stage of mature and decline. On the other hand, the company at the stage of growth is also younger than the companies that are at the stage of mature and decline. It is proven that companies that are at the stage of growth are at the age of 19 years in aver- age, while companies at the stage of mature and decline are at the age of 22 years and 27 years in average. In addition, the companies at the stage of decline have the smallest dividend in the amount of 0.00% in average, the highest average is at the stage of mature of 18.40%, while the average at the stage of growth is 4.00%.

Descriptive Analysis of Research Variables 1. Earnings Management
Earnings Management is divided into 2 groups: The first group is earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline (EM_EARNINGS_TRN) where this EM_EARNINGS_TRN has 2 values. They are 1 for positive earnings changes category and 0 for negative earnings changes category. EM_EARNINGS_TRN is said to be 1 if the result of the change in net profit of company i in year t-1 to year t divided by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 (NIt-Nit-1/MVEt-1) is ≥ 0 and <0:01 and EM_EARNINGS_TRN is said to be 0 if the result of net profit of company i from year t divided  by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 (NIt/MVEt-1) is ≥ -0.01 and <0. The second group is the earnings management to avoid reporting losses (EM_LOSS) EM_LOSS which has a 2 value is 1 for positive earnings category and 0 for negative earnings category. EM_LOSS said to be 1 if the result of net income of firm i from year t divided by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 (NIt/MVEt-1) is ≥ 0 and <0:02 and EM_EARNINGS_TRN is said to be 0 if the result of net income of company i from year t divided by the market value of equity at the end of year t-1 (NIt/MVEt-1) is ≥ -0.02 and <0.

Total Deferred Tax Expense and Accruals
The following Table 5 describes the descriptive statistics for each study variable deferred tax expense, total accruals and earnings management. Table 5 explains that the average deferred tax expense on the stage of growth of -0.002560 is larger than the stage of mature of -0.008088. This is consistent with the characteristics of detecting earnings management, i.e. the greater the deferred tax expense at the stage of growth can reduce the level of earnings derived by a company so as to be able to reduce the level of tax paid by the company. At the stage of mature, the average total accrual of 0.006426 is higher when compared to the stage of growth of -0.157538. As mentioned earlier, that the higher total accruals, the more opportunities for managers to manage earnings by implementing income-increasing discretionary accruals. At the stage of mature, the average earnings management to report a profit decline and to report losses of 0.075000 is greater than the stageof growth of 0.055556 and 0.041667.

Hypothesis Testing -Earnings Management to Avoid Earnings Decline
Testing is conducted to determine whether the dif-fered tax expense and accrual affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline.

At the Stage of Growth
Based on Table 6, the logistic equation model obtained can be formulated as follows: EM_EARNINGS_TRN = -2.780 + 1.617 DTE + 0.562 TACC + e Based on the results of the output, it can be seen that Chi_square value in the Hosmer and Lemeshow Test is 6.333 and it is significant at the level of 0.610. Since significance value is greater than 0.1, then the research hypothesis is accepted, and thus logistic regression model is worth being used for further analysis because there is no real difference between the predicted classification and the observed one.
Based on the results of the output it can be seen that to assess the overall model is based on the function of likelihood (L). Of two numbers -2 log likelihood, where in the negative earnings changes (Block 0) number -2 log L is 30.897, while in the positive earnings changes (Block 1) number -2 log L decreased to 30.701. The decline shows better regression model.
Variable Deferred tax expense (DTE) has a coefficient value of 1.617 and significant level of 0.890. It means that Ho is accepted or not significant at the level of 0.1. From the regression testing, it can be concluded that at the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline is not affected by deferred tax expense. Meanwhile, the accrual variables have coefficient value of 0.562 and the significant level is 0.731. It means that Ho is accepted or ratio of total accruals is not significant at the level of 0.1. From the regression testing, it can be concluded that the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline is not affected by accruals. In this study, accrual is calculated using the total accruals.

At the Stage of Mature
Based on the Table 7, the logistic equation model obtained can be formulated as follows: EM_EARNINGS_TRN = -2.491 + 5.015 DTE -0.042TACC + e Based on the results of the output, it can be seen that the value of Chi-square at the Hosmer and Lemeshow Test is 7.412 and significant at the level of 0.493. Since significant value is greater than 0.1, so the null hypothesis (H0) is accepted, and then the logistic regression model is worth being used for further analysis because there is no real difference between the predicted classification and the observed one.
Based on the results of the output, it can be seen that to assess the overall model is based on the function of likelihood (L). From the two numbers -2 log likelihood, where at the negative earnings changes (Block 0) number -2 log L is 21.311, while at the positive earnings changes (Block 1) number -2 log L decreased to 21.205. The decline shows better regression model. Variable Deferred tax expense (DTE) has a coefficient value of 5015 and significant level of 0.764.It means that Ho is accepted or not significant at the the level of 0.1 l. From the regression testing, it can be concluded that at the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline is not affected by deferred tax expense. The variable accrual (TACC) has coefficient value of -0.042 and a significant level of 0.978. It means that Ho is accepted or ratio of total accruals is not significant at the level of 0.1. From the regression testing, it can be concluded at the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline is not influenced by accruals. In this study, accrual is calculated using the total accruals.

Hypothesis Testing -Earnings Management to Avoid Losses
Testing was conducted to determine whether differed tax expense and accrual affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses.

At the Stage of Growth
Based on the Table 8, logistic equation model obtained can be formulated as follows:  Based on the results of the output, it can be seen that the value of Chi_square at the Hosmer and Lemeshow Test is 6.501 and significant at the level of 0.591. Since significant value is greater than 0.1, so the null hypothesis (H0) is accepted and then the logistic regression model is worth being used for further analysis because there is no real difference between the predicted classification and the observed one.
Based on the results of the output, it can be seen that to assess the overall model is based on the function of likelihood (L). From the two numbers -2 log likelihood, where at the negative earnings changes (Block 0) number -2 log L 24.942, while at the positive earnings changes (Block 1) number -2 log L decreased to 18.509. The decline shows better regression model.
Variable Deferred tax expense (DTE) has a coefficient value of -0.062 and significant level of 0.998. It means that Ho is accepted or not significant at the level of 0.1. From the regression testing, it can be concluded that at the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting losses is not affected by deferred tax expense. The variable accrual has coefficient value of -1.224 and significant level of 0.059. It means that Ho is rejected or the ratio of total accruals is significant at the level of 0.1. From the regression testing, it can be concluded that at the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting losses is influenced by accruals. In this study accrual is calculated using the total accruals.

At the Stage of Mature
Based on the Based on the results of the output it can be seen that the value of Chi_square in the Hosmer and Lemeshow Test is -7.443 and is significant at the level of 0.490. Since the significant value is greater value 0.1, so the research hypothesis is accepted and then the logistic regression model is worth being used for further analysis because there is no real difference between the predicted classification and the observed one.
Based on the results of the output, it can be seen that to assess the overall model is based on the function of likelihood (L). From the two numbers -2 log likelihood, where at the negative earnings changes (Block 0) number -2 log L is 21.331, while at the positive earnings changes (Block 1) -2 log L decreased to  19.038. The decline shows better regression model. Variable Deferred tax expense (DTE) has a coefficient value of 7.211 and significant level of 0.737. It means that Ho is accepted or not significant at the level of 0.1. From the regression testing, it can be concluded that at the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting losses is not affected by deferred tax expense. The variable accrual has coefficient value of -1.576 and significant level of 0.116. It means that Ho is received or the ratio of total accruals is significant at the level of 0.1. From the regression testing, it can be concluded that at the time of the earnings management to avoid reporting losses is not affected by accruals. In this study accrual is calculated using the total accruals.

Deferred Tax Expense and Income Management -Earnings Decline
Based on SPSS output, deferred tax expense at the time of reporting earnings decline at the stage of growth does not affect significantly in detecting earnings management. This is presumed because at the time the earnings decline, the temporary differences resulting effect in a form of deferred tax expense is not too big so that it can affect the ability of deferred tax expense in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline. Temporary differences, in this regard, can be caused by differences in the depreciation method used in accounting and fiscal. While at the stage of mature, the deferred tax expense does not affect significantly in detecting earnings management. This is presumed that at the mature stage, the company experienced the peak of success, so modification on accrual will cause tax effect of deferred tax expense which is then used in detecting earnings management. So actually, in detecting earnings management can directly use accruals.
Results of this study are inconsistent with Philips research, Pincus and Rego (2003) showed that variable deferred tax expense affects on earnings management in reporting earnings decline and in reporting loss. According Yuliati (2004), concluded that the deferred tax expense has significant effect on company in conducting earnings management. According to Anisa and Theresia (2005), deferred tax expense is incrementally less useful or as useful as accruals in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline.

Deferred Tax Expense and Earnings Management -Losses
Based on SPSS output, deferred tax expense at the time of reporting losses at the stage of growth does not affect significantly in detecting earnings management. This is presumed because the accrual is more related to company growth than to deferred tax expense, so it will provide motivation to perform income-increasing earnings management in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses. While at the stage of mature, accruals do not affect significantly in detecting earnings management. This is presumed because at the stage of mature, the deferred tax expense cannot be a tool for detecting earnings management.
Results of this study are not inconsistent with Philips' research, Pincus and Rego (2003) showed that variable deferred tax expense affects on earnings management in reporting earnings decline and in reporting loss. Yuliati (2004) concluded that the deferred tax expense has a significant effect on company in conducting earnings management. According to Anisa and Theresia (2005), deferred tax expense is incrementally less useful or as useful as accruals in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline.

Accruals and Earnings Management -Earnings Decline
Based on SPSS output, according to the model Healy, accruals (total accruals) at the time of reporting earnings decline at the stage of growth does not affect significantly in detecting earnings management. This is presumed because the accruals with method of Healy (total accruals) are not able to become benchmarks in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline so that other accrual method can be used. While at the stage of mature, accruals do not affect significantly in detecting earnings management. It is also presumed because the accruals with method of Healy at the mature stage are not suitable for detecting earnings, so it requires accruals with other methods. The results of this study are consistent with Anisa and Theresia (2005), the deferred tax expense is incrementally less useful or as useful as accrual in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline.

Accruals and Earnings Management -Losses
Based on SPSS output, according to Healy, accruals (total accruals) at the time of reporting loss at the stage of growth affect significantly in detecting earnings management. This is presumed because most companies choose to conduct earnings management through modification on accruals and not on operating cash flow. While at the stage of ma-ture, accruals do not affect significantly in detecting earnings management. This is presumed because at the stage of mature, the accruals with method of Healy (total accruals) are not able to become the benchmark anymore in detecting earnings management because the companies have already been at the peak of their maturity, so other accrual models can be used, especially in this stage of mature.
Results of this study are consistent with the study of Wilson (1986) in Sari Atmini (2001) showed that the total accrual and cash component of earnings have incremental information content beyond earnings itself and that the total accrual component of earnings have incremental information content. According to Anisa and Theresia (2005), deferred tax expense is incrementally less useful or as useful as accruals in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline.

CONCLUSION, IMPLICATION, SUGGES-TION, AND LIMITATIONS
Based on the analysis using SPSS program, it can be concluded that deferred tax expense does not affect detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline and to avoid reporting losses on both growth and mature stages. This is presumed because modification on the accrual will result in tax effects of deferred tax expense which is then used to detect earnings management that is actually to detect earnings management can directly use accruals.
Accruals (total accruals), with Healy method, do not affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline in both growth stages and mature stage. This is presumed because accruals with method of Healy (total accruals) are not able to become benchmarks in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting earnings decline so that other accrual method can be used. While accruals (total accruals), with Healy method, affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses at the stage of growth, so it can be used to detect earnings management at the stage of growth. For accruals at the stage of mature do not affect in detecting earnings management to avoid reporting losses. This is presumed because at the stage of mature, the accruals with method of Healy (total accruals) are not able to detect earnings management because the companies have already been at the top of maturity so that other models of accruals can be used, especially at this stage of mature.
Several limitations of this study are (1) this study does not test the modified Jones models and forward looking models as one of accruals meas-ure.
(2) The samples used are limited to the manufacturing company established in 1980 and over that are listed at the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) in the study period between 2000-2007, so the results of this study cannot be generalized to other companies outside the group of manufacturing companies in Indonesia and have a very short period, so that no company found at the stage of start-up and only found one company that is at the stage of decline.
Suggestions for future research are: (1) Future research is expected to be able to improve the model, so that the results can explain the phenomenon of earnings management in relation to deferred tax expense and accruals.
(2) Future research should be done to test further by taking a broader sample, i.e. sample with broader company year coverage and increase coverage of the object of study not only in the manufacturing industry alone, so that broader data can be collected to be used as research sample, in order to obtain samples of the company is at the stage start-up and find more than one company at the stage of decline. (3) Similar study can be done by analyzing the other accounting variables, particularly for start-up and decline stage where data with existing variables in this study are difficult to find.