Open Access
Research (Published online: 09-10-2020)
9. An assessment on potential risk pathways for the incursion of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in backyard poultry farm in Bangladesh
Kamrul Islam, Md. Murshidul Ahsan, Shovon Chakma, Kinley Penjor, Mukti Barua, Mohammad Shah Jalal, Abdullah Al Momen Sabuj, Zakia Tabassum Ani and Abdul Ahad
Veterinary World, 13(10): 2104-2111

Kamrul Islam: Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Mohakhali-1212, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Md. Murshidul Ahsan: Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, National University of Singapore, 4 Engineering Drive 4, Singapore 117585.
Shovon Chakma: Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Mohakhali-1212, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Kinley Penjor: Bhutan Agriculture and Food Regulatory Authority, Bhutan.
Mukti Barua: Department of Animal Science and Nutrition, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chattogram, Bangladesh.
Mohammad Shah Jalal: Department of Microbiology and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chattogram, Bangladesh.
Abdullah Al Momen Sabuj: Department of Microbiology and Hygiene, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh.
Zakia Tabassum Ani: Department of Sociology, Faculty of social sciences, University of Chittagong, Bangladesh.
Abdul Ahad: Department of Microbiology and Veterinary Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chattogram, Bangladesh.

doi: www.doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2020.2104-2111

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Article history: Received: 29-03-2020, Accepted: 31-08-2020, Published online: 09-10-2020

Corresponding author: Abdul Ahad

E-mail: abdul@cvasu.ac.bd

Citation: Islam K, Ahsan MM, Chakma S, Penjor K, Barua M, Jalal MS, Sabuj AAM, Ani ZT, Ahad A (2020) An assessment on potential risk pathways for the incursion of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in backyard poultry farm in Bangladesh, Veterinary World, 13(10): 2104-2111.
Abstract

Background and Aim: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a deadly virus of zoonotic potential. The study mainly aims to determine the risk pathways (RPs) for the probable incursion of HPAI virus (HPAIV) in backyard poultry in Bangladesh.

Materials and Methods: The study involves expert elicitation technique. The concept map determines the possible RPs. The map consists of 16 concepts, each with nodes from which probabilities of an event originates. These probabilities are described by qualitative descriptors ranging from negligible to high. Risk assessment has been performed using the subjective risk assessment tool.

Results: The tool demonstrates positive correlation among groups of experts in the level of agreement by scoring RP; however, the level of agreement varies from 71% to 93% among group of experts. The median risk score of viral incursion through the "Exposure of backyard poultry with farm poultry in the trading market" was 11 and ranked as top, followed by "Contaminated live bird market environment" and "Sharing common scavenging space with migratory birds" (median risk score, 10.5; rank, 2), and "Scavenging of infected slaughtered poultry remnants by backyard poultry" (median risk score, 5.3; rank, 3) when no control options were applied along with the RPs. After applying or considering control option along with contaminated live bird market environment, the median risk score was reduced to 5.0. Applying a specific control option along with each RP reduced estimated median risk scores for HPAIV incursions.

Conclusion: This study provides an insight into the incursion risks of HPAIV through various RPs in backyard poultry in Bangladesh.

Keywords: control options, highly pathogenic avian influenza, live bird market, prevention, risk assessment, risk pathways.