Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour
Fig 9
Root mean square error (RMSE) of the predictions for the second round.
The RMSEs are obtained from crossvalidation. (A) gauging game, (B) counting game. In (B), the RMSE has been scaled by a factor of 5 to be comparable to the (A) plot. The bar chart displays crossvalidation errors for models that does not depend on the training set size. Top blue horizontal line corresponds to the null model of constant opinion. The middle horizontal green line correspond to fitting using the same typical couple of influenceability for the whole population. The bottom horizontal red line correspond to the prediction error due to intrinsic variations in judgment revision. The decreasing black curves (triangle dots) correspond to fitting with the individual influenceability method. The slightly decreasing orange curves (round dots) correspond to fitting choosing among 2 typical couples of influenceability. All RMSE were obtained on validation games.