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Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

Fig 8

Sensitivity index of standardized yield for selected component traits involved in crop development (A), resource acquisition (B), biomass production (C) and biomass allocation (D) relative to seasonal water- or nitrogen-stress indices.

Yield impact was assessed for the thermal time required to reach floral initiation (tt_end_of_juvenile), the water extractability by roots (ll_modifier), the radiation use efficiency (y_rue), and biomass allocation to grains (potential_grain_filling_rate). As sensitivity indices are computed independently for each condition (combinations of sites × year × management), a standardized sensitivity index was used to allow comparison of indices across environments. In this case, simulated yield was standardized () within each of the 9000 environment conditions before computing elementary effects and sensitivity indices (which are always positive in Morris method). The water-stress index [7] indicates the degree to which the soil water extractable by roots (water supply) is able to match the potential crop transpiration (water demand). The nitrogen-stress index is a factor computed by APSIM that determines limiting N level affecting leaf photosynthesis [29]. Both indexes ranged from 0 (no-stress) to 1 (extreme stress). Data are presented for representative drought-pattern environment types (colors), namely “low” (ET1) with stress-free or short-term water-deficits; “mild-late” (ET2) with mild water shortage mainly occurring during grain filling; “mild-early” (ET3) with severe water stress starting during the vegetative stage and relieved during mid-grain filling; and “severe” (ET4) with water deficit from early stages throughout the grain-filling periods [7]. Lines represent linear regressions fitted by environment types.

Fig 8

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0146385.g008