Modelling the Geographical Range of a Species with Variable Life-History
Figure 4
The world, showing risk categories for Rhopalosiphum padi invasion.
Two scenarios are shown that represent; (a), natural rainfall conditions; and (b), an irrigation scenario. Results are based on the output from sexual and asexual CLIMEX models and the presence or absence of the primary woody host plant. Invasion risk categories are based on the International Standard for Phytosanitary Measures (ISPM) (FAO 2006). ‘Endangered’ indicates areas that are at risk of R. padi populations establishing and persisting year-round, ‘Transient’ indicates areas that are at risk of seasonal reinvasion but conditions are not suitable for persistence year-round, and ‘Potentially endangered’ indicates areas at risk of persistent populations year-round if a suitable Prunus host plant were introduced.