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Stochastic Model of In-Vivo X4 Emergence during HIV Infection: Implications for the CCR5 Inhibitor Maraviroc

Figure 2

Three-state Markov model of viral strain mutations during the reverse transcription step of the infection cycle.

There are three viral strains (R5, D/M,X4 as shown in circles) and a total of six possible mutations. Here denotes the probability of transition/mutation from viral strain to viral strain at the reverse transcription step of infection. The dashed lines denote transitions/mutations between viral strains. The probabilities of transition/mutation between different strains are calculated under the assumption that viral tropism is determined by the amino acids at positions 11, 25 and 29 in the V3 region of env (see Methods and Table 3).

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0038755.g002