Development and validation of a risk prediction model of preterm birth for women with preterm labour symptoms (the QUIDS study): A prospective cohort study and individual participant data meta-analysis
Fig 3
Net benefit analysis of QUIDS risk prediction model.
Net benefit analysis (and 95% confidence intervals). The figure shows the standardised net benefit (to visualise the potential benefit from reducing unnecessary treatment, and potential harms from “missing” a case of preterm birth plotted on the same scale) at different % probabilities (from 0%–20%) of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days as predicted by the QUIDS risk prediction model (blue lines) after recalibration of the intercept, compared to a policy of treating all women with symptoms (black dashed line) and a policy of treating no women (black horizontal line). Standardised net benefit was calculated using the formula , where sNB is defined by true negative rate (TNR), the false negative rate (FNR), the prevalence of preterm birth within 7 days (p), and the risk threshold (r) odds of low-risk designation at the % risk prediction [38]. FNR, false negative rate; sNB, standardised net benefit; TNR, true negative rate.