Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study
Fig 4
Predicted versus observed dengue incidence rates.
Posterior predicted mean (dashed purple curve) and 95% prediction interval (shaded area) for dengue incidence rates (per 100,000 population) in Barbados from June 1999 to May 2016, simulated from the final model (refitted 17 times, leaving out 1 year at a time). Observed values (solid orange curve) and moving outbreak threshold (blue dotted curve) are included. Year labels are included at the start of each calendar year (e.g., in January).