Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis
Fig 4
Reported and model-based estimates and forecasts of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases between July 2013 and December 2016.
(A) Observed WPV1 cases. (B) Estimated probability of reporting at least 1 WPV1 case based on the best-fit regression model including all available data (January 2010–December 2016). Complete figures with earlier time periods included in Figures K and L in S1 Text. (C) Predicted probability of reporting at least 1 WPV1 case for the same periods using data up to the end of the preceding 6-month period. AUC, area under the curve.