Impact of School Cycles and Environmental Forcing on the Timing of Pandemic Influenza Activity in Mexican States, May-December 2009
Fig 5
Variability of R0 and Re during May-December 2009 as a function of changes in specific humidity, interventions, school cycles, and susceptibility, and the resulting impact on pandemic influenza activity, as predicted by the model.
(A) The relationship between specific humidity and R0. The gray lines are 500 samples generated from the posterior distributions, and the black line corresponds to the mean value of the posterior means. (B) The time series of average specific humidity for central and northern states (solid line) and southeastern states (dashed line). (C) Time series of R0 for best-fit parameter combination. The step features are related to spring break, the intervention period, summer break and winter break, respectively. (D) Time series of simulated Re. (E) Time series of simulated population level susceptibility. (F) Time series of simulated case proportions. For B-F, shaded areas in background correspond to spring vacation, period of school closures and intervention measures, summer vacation, and winter vacation, respectively. The solid lines correspond to the central and northern states, and the dashed lines correspond to the southeastern states. The simulated values were generated using the mean value of the posterior means for each parameter.