SAIS Review of International Affairs

The day of August 17, 2012 ended with a two-year criminal conviction for three young civic activists in Moscow and a former revolutionary leader in Kiev. Anti-Putin performers, including the female punk group in question and Orange Revolution organizer Yuri Lutsenko, share the intent to show local opposition activists the rising costs of staging acts of disobedience against the authorities. The signal might have been persuasive enough. Despite a clear condemnation of the trials by Western governments and an outcry in the international media, less than a thousand people protested in Moscow and Kiev, once focal points for mass protests. This tranquility, however, may be deceptive and short-lived. Three Slavic autocracies—Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus—have entered a phase of political turbulence, which may lead to a growing repression and, simultaneously, increasing pressure for regime change. This new dynamic puts the long-term sustainability of these regimes in doubt.