Journal of Democracy

Abstract:

The ongoing crisis in Tunisia has shaken the basis of its young democracy. President Kais Saied's 25 July 2021 power grab has upended the political order in Tunis and opened the door to a creeping autocratic restoration. This is tragic not only for Tunisia but also for the Arab world more broadly––Tunisia's was the only democratic transformation that followed the 2011 uprisings and the country gave hope to democrats in the region. Long hailed for their political neutrality and professionalism, the Tunisian Armed Forces have played an ambiguous role in the crisis and stand to benefit from it. This article argues that the generals' change of heart may be due to political and resource demands: They seek a strong leader to help consolidate political and resource gains made in the past decade. Saied and the armed forces have strong incentives to stick together and entrench their power, making a quick democratic restoration in Tunisia unlikely.