Journal of Veterinary Medical Science
Online ISSN : 1347-7439
Print ISSN : 0916-7250
ISSN-L : 0916-7250
Virology
Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan
Yoko HAYAMATakehisa YAMAMOTOSota KOBAYASHINorihiko MUROGAToshiyuki TSUTSUI
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Supplementary material

2016 Volume 78 Issue 1 Pages 13-22

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Abstract

The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.

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© 2016 by the Japanese Society of Veterinary Science

この記事はクリエイティブ・コモンズ [表示 - 非営利 - 改変禁止 4.0 国際]ライセンスの下に提供されています。
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.ja
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