Global CO emission reduction policies and West African electricity system : Case for transformational access

Based on the UN Human Development Index, the West African sub-region holds one of lowest indices in development around the world. There is a glaring need for the sub-region to increase its electricity capacity; however, stringent global CO  policies have ‘choking’ effects on the growth of the electricity sector in energy deprived countries, like the West African Member States. This study examines the West Africa electric power sector under a range of technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties, positing that there is the need to frame policies from the premise of ‘need’ rather than a ‘circumstantial’ perspective, which, in this study, relates to the global policies on CO  emission reduction. Though CO  is the inevitable by-product of combusting fossil fuels to generate electricity, it should also be viewed from the perspective of its significant benefits as regards provision of social welfare of individuals. This study evaluated the broad strategies in policy formulation and implementation (top-down versus bottom-up analysis) and applied these strategies to examine investment decision versus pricing regime and electricity system value chain (upstream versus downstream analysis). System dynamics principles were used to forecast what future consumption will look like, which shows that there would be marked increase in demand followed by increased emission without intervention. This study concludes that global CO  policy would need to be re-considered such that energy deprived countries, like those in West Africa, would be able to implement a sustainable development agenda through growth strategy of bottom-up approach to ‘free’ their electricity system for improved living standard, irrespective of climate change issues.


Introduction
Across West Africa, more than 230 million people are without electricity access, translating to about 66% of the entire population. This means that making access available represents a life-or-death issue for the sub-region; it is estimated on a yearly basis that 3.5 million people die from indoor air pollution caused by the use of wood stoves, more than AIDS and malaria combined 1 . This grim statistic makes it imperative to transform the economy at more than the business-as-usual rate. No doubt West Africa has the lowest human development indices, meaning that the sub-region (West Africa) needs to undergo rapid transformation, particularly in the attempt to make adequate provision of needed infrastructure such as energy, including electricity for socio-economic development. Development is energy driven, meaning that energy use drives economic growth and in turn, economic growth drives energy use. The West African sub-region is blessed with vast energy resources, though distribution is skewed towards some of countries, namely Nigeria, Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire. These vast resources notwithstanding, electricity access has remained meagre: urban areas at less than 50% and rural areas at less than 20%. 2, 3 .
In response to these glaring challenges, the sub-regional organization, Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) agreed to reposition the power sector in order to achieve universal access for the sub-region in line with global practices 4 . Thus in 2000, the West African Power Pool (WAPP) was established to harness all the available energy resources for electricity supply system for the sub-region. Other sub-regional organisations related to electricity system development are ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERERA), established in January 2008, and ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE), established in 2010. Ever since putting these three related organisations into operations, the issues involved in electricity development has been a front runner for the sub-region. There are, however, salient issues that could affect the success and impact the aims and objectives of the subregional organizations established to make electricity available to all. One of these is the constraint imposed from global CO 2 emission reduction policies, on which this study aims to provide a preliminary assessment. The study's objectives are to: examine the West Africa electric power sector under a range of technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties; and assess what effect global policies on CO 2 emission reduction have on electricity production in the sub-region.
Significance of this study African countries are arguably faced with the two greatest developmental barriers, namely climate change and energy access. In West Africa, Nigeria has the largest energy and population resources and energy related activities are estimated to account for about 55% of total national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Curbing these activities through low-carbon development for climate change mitigation and adaptation to increase energy access, requires being done in a manner to avoid 'choking' developmental efforts. When it comes to climate change and GHG emissions, the usual question about energy-environment nexus is "At what cost must we grow?". However, for countries that are energy deprived, the converse may hold, which is "At what cost must we not grow?". In viewing policy implications to global climate change as relates to energy deprived countries, such as in West Africa, it is important to examine the approaches to policy formulation/analysis, namely, top-down versus bottom-up. This in turn will be used to examine investment decision versus pricing regime and electricity system value chain (upstream versus downstream). This study attempts to review these approaches as they relate to the electricity system in West Africa, after providing an overview of the current state of the West African electricity system 5 .

Electricity and development globally
Without a doubt, electricity is a very relevant catalyst to affecting economic development and growth, as has been experienced in many developed countries of the world. As an example, access to electricity in the United States (US) affects the quality of life significantly, with a wide range of effect on citizens' welfare 6 . This example shows that the world benefits immensely from electricity. However, policies related to effectively managing CO 2 has increased cost of electricity production and transmission. With increased prices, very large segments of the society could be denied access to electricity despite projected growth in demand. This becomes critical as higher prices means less usage, which can impact negatively in poorer nations like those in the West African sub-region.
Yearly, the UN performs development ranking of nations based on United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), which was developed in 1990 7 . The HDI, a summary composite index that is measured on a scale of 0 to 1, shows a nation's average achievements in three basic dimensions of human development: health, knowledge and standard of living. Health is measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge is measured by a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; and standard of Living is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (PPP US$). In all these indices, West African countries are ranked way below average, meaning that the sub-region is slow in development. Related to global poverty, it was estimated that there are about 3 billion persons that live on less than $2/day with about 1.5 billion having no access to electricity 6 . In 2012, it was estimated that about 212 million or 66% of persons living in the West African sub-region have no access to electricity, representing almost 15% of the global figure. In addition, of the 2-3 billion estimated to be living on less than US$2 per day, about 10% are resident in West Africa 8,9 . Energy and development are "pull and push" in their directions as related to climate change. This is because, whereas energy is needed for development, its consumption also emits noxious CO 2 to the atmosphere. When energy use is analysed visa-vis environmental implications, the focus is usually narrowed down to only the potential for climate change impact. However, it is also imperative to view energy use in the context of why CO 2 is emitted (see also 6). Though CO 2 is the inevitable by-product of combusting fossil fuels to generate electricity, its benefits need to be mentioned at such time when climate change impact is driving global policy discourse. It is important to recognize that generation and access to electricity from fossil fuels also brings about significant benefits for the health and welfare of billions across the globe. Indeed, societal electrification is identified by the National Academy of Engineering as the "most significant engineering achievement" of the 20th century 10 .
This notwithstanding, energy deprived countries are at "variance" with current global energy policies as relates to climate change. This is because these proposed policies run counter to the longestablished relationship of access to power as fundamental to a higher standard of living and directly related to socioeconomic development. This policy dilemma is best described by Franklin Cudjoe, Director of the Imani (Hope) Center for Policy and Education in Ghana 6 . Cudjoe opines that enforcing 30% reduction in GHG emissions by U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation and other U.S. international aid agencies associated with their projects over the next 10 years, will undermine development in such electricity-deprived regions as Africa; i.e. the fact that Africans cannot have electricity and economic development-except what can be generated with wind turbines or solar panels-is misguided. Hence, this study presents the energy situation in West Africa below and the implication of global CO 2 policies on the development of its electricity system.
West Africa, its electricity (energy) system and some socio-economic indicators West Africa had an estimated population of 322 million in 2012 and is ranked to have one of the highest growth rates in the world at between 3.81% and 2.7% per annum 11 . Of the 14 countries associated with the sub-region, 52% is accounted for from Nigeria of the total population, covering a surface area of only 18% of the estimated size of about 5,105 million km 2 . The Member States of West Africa Community are energy deprived countries. Only three countries in the sub-region, namely Ghana, Guinea Bissau and Nigeria, have access (in whatever definition) to electricity that is above 50%. Liberia has the lowest access level at 4.1%. The total electricity generating capacity of the subregion is <20 GW (which represents only about 45% of South African electricity generating capacity), giving it an average per capita power capacity of 0.05 kW/person. In energy terms, the average per capita electricity consumption is 114 kWh/person 12 . However, production and consumption levels are highly skewed towards a few countries in the sub-region. It is held that for a country to be electricity sufficient, it must have an average per capita consumption of 500 kWh/person, while for industrialization it must be up to an average of 1000 kWh/person 13 . The highest per capita electricity consuming country in the West African sub-region is Ghana at about 266 kWh/person, a far cry from that needed to provide basic access, and a very far cry from that that can lead to transformation. Table 1 shows the electricity supply structure in the sub-region as reported by the WAPP. The table also shows the proportion contributed by each of the countries in the WAPP. Table 2 and Table 3 present electricity and economic indicators, respectively, of each of the country in WAPP. Table 2 details the electricity demand growth, key generation fuels, installed power capacity and access to electricity by the population. Table 3 shows socio-demographic and economic indicators of the countries. Cape Verde was not considered as it is not part of the WAPP.   Realizing this level of deficiency in the sub-region, ECOWAS, which was set about 40 years ago in 1975, established and institutional framework in form of WAPP, ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERERA) and ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE), needed to harness the potentials in the energy resources of the sub-region for the benefits of the people. Energy is critical to all the economic growth desired in the sub-region and will be needed for infrastructure development such as roads, water, and housing amongst others.

Methods
Due to the decisions that must be made to assist in decision making requires facts to be gathered for analysis, and how these facts are gathered and analysed will determine the outcome of decisions that will be made. This study briefly looks at the approaches to acquiring facts and data analysis that leads to decision making, vis-a-vis, the West Africa electricity system and global CO 2 reduction policies. The study uses two techniques 22 applied in information processing and knowledge ordering or style of thinking and teaching (application of policies). These techniques are: top-down versus bottom-up as they relate to global CO 2 policy and electricity system development. The approach was then applied to analyse investment decision versus pricing regime, as well as looking at the electricity value chain from the upstream versus downstream points of view. Data were drawn from secondary sources on energy utilization in the West African sub-region.

Top-down and bottom-up strategies
Top-down and bottom-up are two techniques that both represent strategies of information processing and knowledge ordering 23 . Laws are made in democratic legal system in two ways: adjudicating (bottom-up) or legislating (top-down) 24 .
In adjudicating, which is bottom-up, laws are abstracted from the decisions made in individual cases. On the other hand, in legislating, general principles are declared through a centralized authority to be applied in individual cases. These two processes are noted to have their merits and demerits and they appear in a variety of fields. Both in practice can be seen to represent thinking and teaching styles. In legislative deliberation, the system is broken down to gain insight into its compositional sub-systems, while its adjudicative partner piece together the systems in a way that produces more complex systems. These approaches are operated in multilateral state organizations involved in international policy formulation.
Three broad strategies for consideration are carbon tax, cap and trade and regulator approach 25  . WAPP member country level data elicited from WAPP and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERERA) serves as the set of basic data used to develop and run the main model (see Figure 3). Other data elicited from various journal articles and internet sources (such as Central Banks of ECOWAS Member State Countries; Bureau of Statistics; Electricity Regulatory Bodies) include population and its average growth rate, GDP, per capita income, average per capita electricity demand, electricity generated, average electricity tariff, generation technology type, amongst others. The generated SD model examines the (nonlinear) relationship regarding generation adequacy and GHG emission reduction in the WAPP. It evaluated the strain of providing adequate supply capacity against emission reduction from generation technologies in the West African electricity system. The complexities in the West African electricity system were arranged in the model to establish the basic interconnecting structure for the system analysis; this is to achieve global expectations of emission reduction and economic growth.

Systems dynamics
The SD model was developed using Vensim DSS version 6.2. SD is a principle that is developed using computer-aided software to understand how changes occur in a system over time. The principle is useful for policy analysis and design 29 to understand physical, biological, and social systems from the perspective of information feedback and mutual or recursive causality 30 . Areas of usefulness of the field of SD include planning and policy design, public management and policy, biological and medical modelling, energy and the environment, theory development in the natural and social sciences, dynamics decision making and complex nonlinear dynamics 31 . The structure of a system informs its behaviour, and this structure consists of feedback loops, stocks and flows, and nonlinearities created by the interaction of the physical and institutional structure of the system with the decision-making processes of the agents acting within it. In its structure, the model is made up of three stock/level variables, 5 flow rates and 5 auxiliary variables with 8 parameters 32 . Stocks are accumulations, which characterizes the state of the system and generate the information upon which decisions and actions are based. Stocks give systems inertia and provide them with memory. Stocks create delays by accumulating the difference between the inflow to a process and its outflow. By decoupling rates of flow, stocks are the source of disequilibrium dynamics in systems.
In this system, the stocks include the capacity under construction, generation capacity and the population being serviced by the electricity system. The inflows and outflows are initiating capacity, completion, scrapping and net population growth rate. An inflow at a point in time may serve as outflow at another point of the stock. For example, completion is an outflow from capacity under construction and at the same time an inflow into generation capacity. The running of the developed model after establishing the structure in a steady state is dependent on the parameters. It is from these parameters that the leverage point in the model was determined. The model parameters, showing base case values together with two other possible policy scenarios, namely unimproved and improved case values respectively, are listed in Table 4.
However, before examining the results of the system behavior, the basic modes of dynamic relationship between structure and behavior is explained. The basic modes 33 explain the dynamics in the relationship between structure and behavior in a dynamic model, identified along with the feedback structures generating them. These modes include growth, created by positive feedback; goal seeking, created by negative feedback; and oscillations (including damped oscillations, limit cycles, and chaos), created by negative feedback with time delays. More complex modes such as S-shaped growth, overshoot and collapse arise from the nonlinear interaction of these basic structures. In order to describe the model output, it is important to look at the reference mode 33 . The reference mode represents the historical behavior of some variables in the model. These basically display exponential growth structure (Figure 1).

Analysis and discussion
This section presents electricity consumption pattern in West African countries and global CO 2 reduction policies and instruments 1 in use. In addition, a SD assessment of the electricity system in the sub-region is also provided.

Global CO 2 reduction policies and instruments
After the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 34 , the world has been making concerted efforts at reducing CO 2 (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. Many policies and instruments have been developed to tackle the menace. Table 5 gives a summary and comparison of some of the types of international instruments that have been developed to support low emission planning. There are several stages to low emission planning processes 35  1 This refers to any formerly executed written document that formally expresses a legally enforceable act, process, or contractual duty, obligation, or right, and therefore evidences that act, process, or agreement for operating the electricity city in any of the West African countries.  • The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has provided TNA support to more than 90 countries and has initiated support for more in-depth TNAs to about 30 countries.

Bali Action Plan Copenhagen Accord COP 16 Draft
NAMAs • NAMAs were adopted under the Bali Action Plan as a mechanism for developing countries to undertake voluntary projects to reduce GHG emissions with international support.
• The Copenhagen Accord notes that countries should describe NAMAs in their national communications and establishes registry of NAMA projects proposed for international support.
• The COP 16 draft decision notes that NAMAs should "include information on mitigation actions, the national greenhouse gas inventory report, including a description, analysis of the impacts and associated methodologies and assumptions, progress in implementation and information on domestic measurement, reporting and verification and support received…" 2 Copenhagen Accord LEDS/Low-Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) • As first noted in the Copenhagen Accord, the COP 16 draft decision states that "a low-carbon development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development" 3 and encourages developing countries to prepare low-carbon development strategies. 4 • Pilot projects to assist countries with LEDS development have been initiated by the United States, Netherlands, European Commission, and others.

Roadmaps
• A technology roadmap is a specialized type of strategic plan that outlines activities an organization can undertake over specific time frames to achieve stated goals and outcomes. Technology-specific roadmaps are intended to support the development of specific types of technologies. The roadmaps serve to achieve consensus on low-carbon energy milestones, priorities for technology development, policy and regulatory frameworks, investment needs, and public engagement.  System dynamics model SD (model in Figure 3) examined the interconnections and quantified the electricity system in West Africa. The results are discussed next.
Behaviour of system dynamics model for the West African electricity system System dynamics, policy analysis, and design are used for learning and decision making. Interconnections in a system are captured in an SD model to define the structure of the system. The  structure arises from the system behaviour. Behaviour explains the dynamics and forces underlying the complexity and change in any system 31 . Feedback loops, stocks and flows, and nonlinearities makes up system structure, created by the interaction between the interconnections, namely the physical and institutional structure in the system, have decision-making processes of the agents acting within it. In the SD model, there are basic modes of dynamic relationship between structure and behaviour, representing the feedback in the system 38 .
Estimated energy needs of the West African electricity system to provide universal access The SD model in Figure 3 identified a number of variables in the West Africa electricity system. This study reports the future capacity addition in the system needed to meet electricity consumption, as well as emission emanating from the electricity generated in the system. The parameter most significant in the model in affecting 'capacity under construction' is the 'time to adjust capacity' that affects generation capacity. Generation capacity in turn is what determines energy generated, which in turn affects power demand and CO 2 emissions. The result from the model run shows an inverse relationship, namely at lower time space of 'time to adjust capacity' the higher the capacity addition that could be achieved and vice versa. The inference simply means that the longer it takes to adjust capacity, the less capacity addition to meet demand. In terms of emission, this is desirable but will thus have a 'choking' effect on the economy as per capita demand is reduced suppressing consumption. In order to drive growth with reduced emission, the 'time to adjust capacity' was reduced with improved technology in terms of the generation technologies deployed to have reduced emission factor (Improved Value), as the driving parameter in terms of emission is the emission factor, which in other words is due to technology improvement in generation plants. Table 6 and Figure 4 and Figure 5 display results for generation capacity and emission from the electricity generated in the West Africa electricity system under three plausible policy scenarios, namely, Base, Improved and Un-Improved. The Base case simply looks at the system as it is historically and is examined in the context of no change in policy direction and also was used to form a reference case. The other two policy options are Improved and Un-Improved cases. In the Improved Case it was assumed that the time to adjust and emission factor were deliberately altered to meet the policy of providing 2.2 MWh/Person/Year power demand. For the Un-Improved Case, it was assumed that the system will degenerate from its Base Case values due to neglect orchestrated by unfavourable response to global policy on CO 2 reduction. However, the curves for each Cases in the analysis shows exponential growth with Improved Case showing faster growth rate than others.
Policy analysis: CO 2 emission reduction versus electricity system development in West Africa Without doubt, modern energy supply has been shown severally [39][40][41][42] to be sine qua non to economic development. This Table 6. Generation capacity and emission from generated electricity, 2011 to 2060. challenge has been identified as needing international attention, with focus on a combined agenda of poverty eradication and sustainable development, in the context of climate change 43,44 . The recent launching of the UN Sustainable Energy for All initiative (SE4All), expresses this priority primarily. Still, further attention would need to be given to areas of such tension and conflict within such an agenda as concerns climate change 39 . The approaches (either top-down or bottom-up) to making such medium-to long-term decisions are important to their success. This study looks at current policies as a constraint 5 to expanding energy access in West Africa. This will invariably affect the electricity system of the sub-region. It will be interesting to know if they were developed as top-down or bottom-up policies to affect energy access.

Year
For example, relating to energy access, international policy makers presume that roughly 2-3 billion people who presently lack modern energy services will only demand or consume them in small amounts over the next several decades. This is because faulty concept of "energy access" informs top-down decision making on energy issues. This is often defined in terms that are unacceptably modest, which in turn has compounded the difficulty of decision-making in such a complex space 39 . This implies projections of future energy consumption that are potentially far too low and inevitably leave, albeit unintentionally, billions deeply impoverished [see 39]. Such approaches risks becoming self-fulfilling, and subsequently, affect the view decision makers have about the kind and scale of challenges confronting the people. analysts and policy makers would be considering to be appropriate as influenced by policies, technologies, levels of investment and investment vehicles.
Policy analysis is important to evaluate its formulation and assess the success of the policy. There was a global shift in the electricity sector management policy in the last two and a half decades towards liberalized markets. This shift created a higher degree of uncertainties in systems that are more stable than those in the electricity system in West Africa that was run as a state-owned enterprise before now. Thus, the West African economy, and invariably the electricity system shows as being more vulnerable to international policies than before. Presently, West Africa has about 17% 45 of the poorest 6 75% of the world population using only about 10% of global energy, representing continuous deep global inequity 39 . "The current forecasts for energy demand in the developing world may be understated because they do not accurately capture the dramatic increase in demand associated with poverty reduction" 46 . This implies that energy access in itself is not an end per se, but rather a necessity for moving to vibrant and sustainable social and economic growth. Minimizing the scale of the challenge will only produce incremental change that amounts to "poverty management", rather than the "transformational changes" needed to help billions climb out of poverty 39 .
In order to improve the standard of living (HDI) of the West Africa sub-region, access to electricity will play a very critical role. Having a better understanding of the significance of electricity system to improving the HDI requires a better understanding of energy access. A better understanding of the scale of energy access challenge in West Africa using electricity as benchmark, would require the knowledge of how much energy is actually needed to enable poverty alleviation, a level termed "modern energy access". This approach will give a bottomup approach to decision making in the policy formulation to answer this question. It is however acknowledged that providing modern energy access is not simplistic. Figure 1 in 39 presents a wide range of what can be meant by "energy access" 47 .
The figure shows how on the average, it differs, both between countries at "full electrification" as well as in those at much lower access rates. This considerable average spread of annual household consumption and access levels complicates comparison.
To make the point for electricity system development, it is necessary to compare access and consumption of the West African sub-region. The comparison is made between places having modern energy access by any definition of the term, with essentially 100% of residents and the broader economy under full electrification. The average resident of the United States consumes about 13,400 kWh per year, with a large variation by state. In comparison, Europeans generally consumes less energy on the average than Americans. As shown in Table 7 Energy access vs energy consumption The first and most pronounced argument on eliminating energy poverty is that of providing energy access and not the amount consumed. To make any meaningful change, these two must be viewed together. Access without the desired quantity is as good as not having it. To understand this better, values for the US, Germany and Bulgaria compares well with the definitions of energy access that typically provide the basis for policy discussions and analyses. Taking "initial threshold" for energy access as defined by the International Energy Agency as 250 kWh per year for rural households and 500 kWh per year for urban households, with a 5-person household 48,49 ). This will be roughly 50-100 kWh/year per person, or about 0.5% of that consumed by the average American or Swede, and 1.7% of the average Bulgarian. Illustrating this in Figure 5 shows Achieving energy access is a multi-level process 39,50,51 . For instance, IEA noted that "Once initial connection to electricity has been achieved, the level of consumption is assumed to rise gradually over time, attaining the average regional consumption level after five years" [see 35]. Including initial period of growing consumption reflects the fact that eradication of energy poverty is a long-term endeavour.
Presented in Table 8  introducing policy for access should be understood that it does not a guarantee transformational consumption for the countries involved. At best, countries with increased access may achieve poverty management. Figure 9 in 52 shows the historical growth in energy access for 10 countries. Energy access here is shown as "electricity access" and is defined as "household electrification" at an unspecified level of consumption. Each of the countries' represented reached a total 100% by different periods, while some others are still not at a total 100% access. So, it is imperative that researchers investigate how fast and how far truly modern energy access occur. This is a generational challenge as it concerns accelerating transition to a radically different, and inclusive, energy system, and providing a just and consequential rationale for much greater attention to innovation in energy systems. Properly understanding the scale of the challenge is a first step in that transition. Feasible discussion of the cost of achieving such ambitious goals will then follow from knowing this scale as a necessary prerequisite of the organization of modern economies. However, it is important to recognize that any such discussion is not only laden with assumptions about economics, technologies and politics -but also that there is evidence of nations that have moved rapidly to achieve greatly increased levels of access in the context of rapid economic growth 39,53 .

West Africa and energy access
Minimal electricity access is a major challenge to more than one and a half billion people 46 . Of this figure, approximately 12.5% or 0.188 billion persons are in West Africa alone. This critical mass of people clearly presents a case for West Africa sub-region when considering global policy on CO 2 emission reduction in terms of policy, national plans, and projects to improve access. In addition, it is vital to realize that the policies for transformational energy access is quite different from those that underpin sustained growth in economies and consumption. Clearly an estimation of energy provision to meet modern access must recognize other sectors of the economy other than the residential sector alone in critical power planning exercises and policies. This is because energy access is woven to all economic sectors, which includes severely constrained business and industry growth due to lack of access and lack of access to high quality services, namely reliable enough to meet the needs of private sector enterprises, from hospitals to factories. Policies for transformational energy access must not aim too low, in order to reduce the risks of policy failure and improve the opportunity costs of policy success. Achieving more ambitious goals will then require more attention on real transformational change.

Conclusion and recommendations
This study examined the implication of global CO 2 reduction policy on electricity system in West Africa, which has numerous energy-deprived member states. Two approaches were applied in the analysis, namely policy formulation and system dynamics principle. Though a more rigorous analysis would still need to be conducted on the system, from the policy formulation perspective, the current study posits that when policies are formulated with no grassroots or stakeholders' input, it is likely to impose constraints on those who are to implement it. It is agreed that there is need to reduce GHG, particularly CO 2 emission into the atmosphere, but the approach to its implementation differs. Policy is seen to be central to implementation as it can cause a 'gagging' and 'choking' effect on the development aspirations of energy deprived countries like those in West Africa, if it does so without needed consideration. Also drawing from 31 and 29, based on the system dynamics model, it was identified that 'time to adjust capacity' is very significant to increasing capacity and achieve reduced GHG emissions. The countries will need to look at more efficient generation technologies with reduced emission factors compared to what is currently in use by the West African electricity system. The study also brought out the fact that energy access is necessary to engage more persons in the grid, but there is the need for decision-makers to also consider consumption level in order to avoid the trap of 'poverty maintenance' rather than 'transformational change'.
Recommendations from the results indicate that: 1. WAPP could reduce time to adjust capacity for the stakeholders in the generation sector to achieve increased generation capacity quickly.
2. It is important that decision-makers not only beat the drum for energy access, but also to argue the case for increased consumption.
3. As a fallout from the second recommendation, it becomes imperative that decision-makers consider what would be the level of energy consumption that will bring about transformation rather than just achieving access.
4. The study aggregated the West African electricity system; there is the need to examine a disaggregated system to draw out important lessons for individual countries within

AND
Any low-power appliances

50-150 kWh
Tier 3 AND any medium-power appliances

-250 kWh
Tier 4 AND any high-power appliances 250 -420 kWh the electricity system in West Africa. This will include examining different technology mix at different emission levels to address the 'push-pull effect' or 'tension' between the global reduction policy of CO 2 emission and provision of electricity for economic development to energy deprived member states.

Data availability
Underlying data Open Science Framework: Model Documentation for Global CO 2 emission reduction policies and West African electricity system.docx, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/WFA45 54 .
Data are available under the terms of the Creative Commons Zero "No rights reserved" data waiver (CC0 1.0 Universal).

Grant information
This research is supported by funding from the Department for International Development (DfID) under the Climate Impact Research Capacity and Leadership Enhancement (CIRCLE) programme.
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.