Imperfect Foresight and Intertemporal Choice

Last registered on February 10, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Imperfect Foresight and Intertemporal Choice
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0005140
Initial registration date
December 03, 2019

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 03, 2019, 11:11 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
February 10, 2020, 12:01 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Peking University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2017-03-12
End date
2020-02-29
Secondary IDs
Abstract
The literature often treat time discounting as an inherent preferences and estimate it with the assumption that people can clearly foresee future situations. This paper investigates whether imperfect foresight affects intertemporal choice using three designs. We first exogenously introduce forecasting difficulty in the form of ambiguity in return of money allocated to a given period and find subjects avoid allocating money to this period. We then use summer vacation as the natural period of increased forecasting difficulty. Comparing the same intertemporal choice made by the same subject but at two different times relative to summer vacation, we find that subjects avoid allocating money to summer. After writing down their plans for summer vacation, subjects are more willing to allocate money to summer. These findings provide strong evidence on the role of imperfect foresight on time discounting.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Jin, Miao et al. 2020. "Imperfect Foresight and Intertemporal Choice." AEA RCT Registry. February 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.5140-4.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2017-03-12
Intervention End Date
2020-02-29

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Intertemporal Choice
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Embargoed at investigator's request.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by computer in office
Randomization Unit
Individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
185 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
Roughly 8,000 choices
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We have three experiments in total. In one experiment, we have randomization treatment:
In Summer Planning Experiment, 22 subjects in summer treatment and 21 subjects in semester treatment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics Committee at Peking University
IRB Approval Date
2015-12-21
IRB Approval Number
N/A

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials