基于改进信息间隙决策理论的考虑决策者风险态度的社区虚拟电厂经济-能源-环境调度策略选择

doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.03.004

电力建设 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 39-57.doi: 10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.03.004

• 综合能源系统能量品质理论与低碳高效应用·栏目主持王丹副教授、陈奇成教授、胡枭副教授、喻洁副教授· • 上一篇下一篇

基于改进信息间隙决策理论的考虑决策者风险态度的社区虚拟电厂经济-能源-环境调度策略选择

高建伟¹^,², 黄宁泊¹^,²(), 高芳杰¹^,², 吴浩宇¹^,², 孟琪琛¹^,², 刘江涛¹^,²

1.华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市 102206
2.新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市 102206

收稿日期:2023-08-08 出版日期:2024-03-01 发布日期:2024-02-28
通讯作者: 黄宁泊(1995),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向为综合能源系统、风险管理与决策理论等,E-mail:ncepu_hnb@163.com。
作者简介:高建伟(1972),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为综合能源系统、风险管理与决策理论等;
高芳杰(1993),女,博士,主要研究方向为综合能源系统优化调度;
吴浩宇(1996),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向为综合能源系统调度优化;
孟琪琛(1997),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向为多能微网优化调度和多目标决策;
刘江涛(1995),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向为综合能源系统优化,风险管理与精算。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(72071076)

Selection of Economics-Energy-Environment Scheduling Strategy for a Community Virtual Power Plant Considering Decision-makers’ Risk Attitudes Based on Improved Information Gap Decision Theory

GAO Jianwei¹^,², HUANG Ningbo¹^,²(), GAO Fangjie¹^,², WU Haoyu¹^,², MENG Qichen¹^,², LIU Jiangtao¹^,²

1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2. Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy Electricity and Low-carbon Development (North China Electric Power University), Beijing 102206, China

Received:2023-08-08 Published:2024-03-01 Online:2024-02-28
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(72071076)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对决策者风险态度(decision-makers’ risk attitudes, DMRA)和不确定性对社区综合能源系统调度策略的影响,提出了社区虚拟电厂(community virtual power plant, CVPP)的多目标调度模型。首先,建立了考虑DMRA的CVPP模型和经济-能源-环境多目标满意度模型。其次,考虑可再生能源、负荷和DMRA的不确定性,对信息间隙决策理论(information gap decision theory, IGDT)模型进行了改进。第三,在考虑DMRA的基础上,拓展自信双层语言术语下的改进VIKOR方法。最后,以某居民区为例,对该模型的有效性进行了验证。结果表明:1)基于DMRA的CVPP提供了切合实际的调度策略。2)实施需求响应后,居民成本和净碳排放分别降低了9%和91%,提高了能源供应商的利润和可再生能源的利用率,所构建的IGDT模型也改进了多个目标。3)改进后的IGDT模型的不确定性和偏差因素允许采用多种调度策略。同时,改进的VIKOR方法为决策者选择策略提供了一种新的方法。该模型为调度策略的选择提供了指导,同时也为鼓励可再生能源的使用提供了途径。

关键词: 社区虚拟电厂(CVPP), 决策者风险态度(DMRA), 信息间隙决策理论(IGDT), 多目标调度, 需求响应, 改进的VIKOR法

Abstract:

To address the impact of decision makers’ risk attitudes (DMRAs) and uncertainties on dispatch strategies in community-integrated energy systems, a multi-objective dispatch model of a community virtual power plant (CVPP) is proposed. First, a novel CVPP model that considers DMRA and a multi-objective economics-energy-environment satisfaction model was developed. The information gap decision theory (IGDT) model is then improved considering uncertainties of renewable energy, loads, and DMRA. Third, considering DMRA, an improved VIKOR method was proposed under self-confident double-hierarchy linguistic preference relations. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model was validated regarding a multi-scenario example of a residential area. The results indicate the following: 1) The novel CVPP provides realistic scheduling strategies based on the DMRA. 2) After implementing demand response, the resident cost and net carbon emissions are reduced by 9% and 91%, respectively. In addition, the energy supplier profit and renewable energy utilization rate are increased. The constructed IGDT model also improves multiple objectives. 3) The improved uncertainty and deviation factors of the IGDT model allow diverse scheduling strategies. Simultaneously, the improved VIKOR method provides a new way for decision makers to select strategies. This model serves as a guide for selecting scheduling strategies and encourages the use of renewable energy sources.

Key words: community virtual power plant(CVPP), decision-makers’ risk attitudes(DMRA), information gap decision theory(IGDT), multiple objectives dispatch, demand response, improved VIKOR method

中图分类号:

TM73

高建伟, 黄宁泊, 高芳杰, 吴浩宇, 孟琪琛, 刘江涛. 基于改进信息间隙决策理论的考虑决策者风险态度的社区虚拟电厂经济-能源-环境调度策略选择[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45(3): 39-57.

GAO Jianwei, HUANG Ningbo, GAO Fangjie, WU Haoyu, MENG Qichen, LIU Jiangtao. Selection of Economics-Energy-Environment Scheduling Strategy for a Community Virtual Power Plant Considering Decision-makers’ Risk Attitudes Based on Improved Information Gap Decision Theory[J]. ELECTRIC POWER CONSTRUCTION, 2024, 45(3): 39-57.

图/表 17

图1 CVPP的框架

Fig.1 The framework of CVPP

表1 价格数据

Table 1 Price data

表2 单目标优化结果

Table 2 Optimal value of single target

图2 确定性的多目标优化调度后的设备产出

Fig.2 Equipment output after deterministic multi-objective optimal scheduling

图3 确定性的多目标优化调度后的家用电器使用方式

Fig.3 The use of household appliances after deterministic multi-objective optimal scheduling

图4 考虑不确定因素的多目标优化后的保守型决策者Pareto前沿

Fig.4 Pareto Frontier for conservative decision makers after multiple objectives optimization with considering uncertain factors

表3 βco,αco值和多目标值

Table 3 βco, αco values and multi-target values

图5 考虑不确定因素的多目标优化策略下β与α的关系

Fig.5 Relationship between β and α under optimal strategy after multiple objectives optimization with considering uncertain factors

图6 考虑不确定因素的多目标优化后的设备输出和家用电器运行-保守决策者

Fig.6 Equipment output and household appliances operation after multiple objectives optimization with considering uncertain factors-conservative decision-makers

图7 考虑不确定因素的多目标优化后的设备产出和家用电器运行-冒险决策者

Fig.7 Equipment output and household appliances operation after multiple objectives optimization with considering uncertain factors-risk decision-makers

图A1 可再生能源预测数据

Fig.A1 Predicted data of renewable energy

图A2 居民负荷数据

Fig.A2 Residential load data

表A1 βco=0.02时不同权重结果

Table A1 Different weight results when the parameter βco=0.02

表A2 保守决策者的调度策略(βco=0.02)

Table A2 Scheduling strategies for conservative decision-makers when the parameter βco=0.02

表A3 不同偏差因子值βco下的最优策略

Table A3 Optimal strategy under different bias factor values βco

表A4 不同偏差因子值βa下的最优策略

Table A4 Optimal strategy under different bias factor value βa

表A5 冒险决策者的调度策略(βa=0.02)

Table A5 Scheduling strategies for risk decision-makers when the parameter βa=0.02

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基于改进信息间隙决策理论的考虑决策者风险态度的社区虚拟电厂经济-能源-环境调度策略选择

Selection of Economics-Energy-Environment Scheduling Strategy for a Community Virtual Power Plant Considering Decision-makers’ Risk Attitudes Based on Improved Information Gap Decision Theory

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