April 2023 Inference on the maximal rank of time-varying covariance matrices using high-frequency data
Markus Reiss, Lars Winkelmann
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Ann. Statist. 51(2): 791-815 (April 2023). DOI: 10.1214/23-AOS2273

Abstract

We study the rank of the instantaneous or spot covariance matrix ΣX(t) of a multidimensional process X(t). Given high-frequency observations X(i/n), i=0,,n, we test the null hypothesis rank(ΣX(t))r for all t against local alternatives where the average (r+1)st eigenvalue is larger than some signal detection rate vn.

A major problem is that the inherent averaging in local covariance statistics produces a bias that distorts the rank statistics. We show that the bias depends on the regularity and spectral gap of ΣX(t). We establish explicit matrix perturbation and concentration results that provide nonasymptotic uniform critical values and optimal signal detection rates vn. This leads to a rank estimation method via sequential testing. For a class of stochastic volatility models, we determine data-driven critical values via normed p-variations of estimated local covariance matrices. The methods are illustrated by simulations and an application to high-frequency data of U.S. government bonds.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful for helpful discussions with Mark Podolskij, Taras Bodnar and Markus Bibinger as well as for stimulating comments by anonymous referees, the Associate Editor and the Editor.

Citation

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Markus Reiss. Lars Winkelmann. "Inference on the maximal rank of time-varying covariance matrices using high-frequency data." Ann. Statist. 51 (2) 791 - 815, April 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOS2273

Information

Received: 1 June 2022; Revised: 1 December 2022; Published: April 2023
First available in Project Euclid: 13 June 2023

zbMATH: 07714181
MathSciNet: MR4601002
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/23-AOS2273

Subjects:
Primary: 60B20 , 62G10 , 62M07 , 62P05

Keywords: eigenvalue perturbation , Empirical covariance matrix , factor model , matrix concentration , Principal Component Analysis , rank detection , signal detection rate , term structure

Rights: Copyright © 2023 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

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Vol.51 • No. 2 • April 2023
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