Abstract
This paper proposes an information theory approach to estimate the number of changepoints and their locations in a climatic time series. A model is introduced that has an unknown number of changepoints and allows for series autocorrelations, periodic dynamics, and a mean shift at each changepoint time. An objective function gauging the number of changepoints and their locations, based on a minimum description length (MDL) information criterion, is derived. A genetic algorithm is then developed to optimize the objective function. The methods are applied in the analysis of a century of monthly temperatures from Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Citation
QiQi Lu. Robert Lund. Thomas C. M. Lee. "An MDL approach to the climate segmentation problem." Ann. Appl. Stat. 4 (1) 299 - 319, March 2010. https://doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS289
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