Skip to main content
Earth, Planets and Space
Download PDF

Volume 56 Supplement 8

Special Issue: IUGG Hagiwara Symposium

  • Article
  • Published:

Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history

Earth, Planets and Space volume 56, pages 715–724 (2004)Cite this article

Abstract

Tokachi-oki earthquake in northern Japan, September 25, 2003, magnitude 8.1, was predicted six months in advance by a short-term earthquake precursor “chain” that reflects an increase of the correlation range among small earthquakes. This prediction is part of the ongoing test of a new short-term prediction method; the test covers territories of Japan, California, and Eastern Mediterranean. Qualitatively, precursory chain is a dense sequence of small earthquakes that had quickly extended over a long distance. A strong earthquake is expected within nine months after such chain is formed, in its formally defined vicinity. Chains are analyzed in conjunction with intermediate-term precursors, emerging with characteristic lead time of years. Methodology of prediction is named “Reverse Tracing of Precursors” (RTP), since precursors are considered in the reverse order of their appearance. That allows detecting short-term precursors not detectable with direct order of analysis. RTP was tested retrospectively for California, Japan, and Eastern Mediterranean, where 22 more strong earthquakes occurred during the time considered. The concept underlying RTP is interaction of lithosphere dynamics on different temporal scales. The described results enhance our fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics and, on the practical side, our capability for earthquakes preparedness.

References

  • Aki, K., Introduction to seismology for earthquake prediction, Proceedings of the Seventh Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction, International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, preprint, 2003

    Google Scholar 

  • ANSS/CNSS Worldwide Earthquake Catalog, produced by Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) and hosted by the Northern California Data Center (NCEDC), 1965–2003, http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/anss.

  • Bird, P., Testing hypotheses on plate-driving mechanisms with global lithosphere models including topography, thermal structure, and faults, J. Geophys. Res., 103(B5), 10115–10129, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blanter, E. M. and M. G. Shnirman, Simple hierarchical systems: stability, self-organized criticality and catastrophic behavior, Phys. Rev. E, 55(6), 6397–6403, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowman, D. D., G. Ouillon, C. G. Sammis, A. Sornette, and D. Sornette, An observational test of the critical earthquake concept, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24359–24372, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caputo, M., R. Console, A. M. Gabrielov, V. I. Keilis-Borok, and T. V. Sidorenko, Long-term premonitory seismicity patterns in Italy, Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc., 75, 71–75, 1983.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gabrielov, A., V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, and W. I. Newman, Critical transitions in colliding cascades, Phys. Rev. E, 62(1), 237–249, 2000a.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gabrielov, A. M., I. V. Zaliapin, W. I. Newman, and V. I. Keilis-Borok, Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 427–437, 2000b.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gelfand, I. M., Sh. A. Guberman, V. I. Keilis-Borok, L. Knopoff, F. Press, E. Ya. Ranzman, I. M. Rotwain, and A. M. Sadovsky, Pattern recognition applied to earthquake epicenters in California, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 11, 227–283, 1976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geller, R. J., Earthquake prediction: A critical review, Geophys. J. Int., 131, 425–450, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jin, A., K. Aki, Z. Liu, and V. I. Keilis-Borok, Brittle-ductile interaction hypothesis for earthquake loading, Abstract, Hagiwara Symposium, XXIII General Assembly of IUGG, 2003, Sapporo, Japan, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kanamori, H., Earthquake prediction: An overview, in International Handbook of Earthquake & Engineering Seismology, Volume 81B, edited by W. H. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, pp. 1205–1216, Academic Press, London, 2003.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok, V. I. (ed.), Intermediate-term earthquake prediction: Models, algorithms, worldwide tests, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 61, special issue, 1990.

  • Keilis-Borok, V. I., Intermediate-term earthquake prediction, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 93, 3748–3755, 1996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok, V., Earthquake prediction: state-of-the-art and emerging possibilities, invited to Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 30, 2002.

  • Keilis-Borok, V., Fundamentals of earthquake prediction: Four paradigms, in Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev, pp. 1–36, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok, V. I. and I. M. Rotwain, Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world: algorithm CN, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 61(1–2), 57–72, 1990.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok, V. I. and P. N. Shebalin (eds.), Dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., special issue, 111, 179–330, 19

  • Keilis-Borok, V. I. and A. A. Soloviev (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, 335 pp., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.

  • Keilis-Borok, V. I., P. N. Shebalin, and I. V. Zaliapin, Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: Five case histories in Southern California, Proc. Natl. Ac. Sci., 99(26), 16562–16567, 2002.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keilis-Borok, V., P. Shebalin, A. Gabrielov, and D. Turcotte, Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 145, 1–4, 75–85, 2004.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knopoff, L., T. Levshina, V. I. Keilis-Borok, and C. Mattoni, Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 5779–5796, 1996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kossobokov, V. G. and J. M. Carlson, Active zone size vs. activity: A study of different seismicity patterns in the context of the prediction algorithm M8, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 6431–6441, 1995.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kossobokov, V. and P. Shebalin, Earthquake prediction, in Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev, pp. 141–207, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ma, Z., Z. Fu, Y. Zhang, C. Wang, G. Zhang, and D. Liu, Earthquake Prediction: Nine Major Earthquakes in China, Springer, New York, 1990.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mogi, K., Earthquake Prediction, Academic Press, Tokyo, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  • Molchan, G. M., Earthquake prediction strategies: A theoretical analysis, in Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev, pp. 209–237, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Newan, W. I., A. Gabrielov, and D. L. Turcotte (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena, Geophys. Monographs Ser. 83. Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, DC, 83, 1994

    Google Scholar 

  • Press, F. (ed.), Earthquake Prediction: A Proposal for a Ten Year Program of Research, 134 pp., Ad Hoc Panel on Earthquake Prediction, White House Office of Science and Technology, Washington, DC, 1965.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prozorov, A. G. and S. Yu. Schreider, Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California, Pure Appl. Geophys., 133, 329–347, 1990.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rundle, J., D. Turcotte, and W. Klein (eds.), Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 2000.

  • Scholz, C. H., The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, B. E., J. M. Carlson, and J. S. Langer, Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 479, 1992.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shebalin, P., I. Zaliapin, and V. I. Keilis-Borok, Premonitory rise of the earthquakes’ correlation range: Lesser Antilles, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 122(3–4), 241–249, 2000.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shebalin, P., V. I. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, S. Uyeda, T. Nagao, and N. Tsybin, Short-term Premonitory Rise of the Earthquake Correlation Range, Abstract, Hagiwara Symposium, XXIII General Assembly of IUGG, 2003, Sapporo, Japan, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sornette, D., Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts & Tools, Springer Ser. Synerg., 432 pp., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2000.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sykes, L. R. and S. C. Jaume, Seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area, Nature, 348, 595–599, 1990.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turcotte, D. L., Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 2nd ed., 412 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Uyeda, S. and S. Park (eds.), special issue, Proceedings of the International Symposium on The Recent Aspects of Electromagnetic Variations Related with Earthquakes, 20 and 21 December 1999, J. of Geodynamics, 33, 4–5, 2002.

  • Vorobieva, I. A., Prediction of a subsequent strong earthquake, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 111, 197–206, 1999.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaliapin, I., V. I. Keilis-Borok, and G. Axen, Premonitory spreading of seismicity over the faults’ network in southern California: Precursor Accord, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B10), 2221, 2002.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zaliapin, I., V. I. Keilis-Borok, and M. Ghil, A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades, Part II: Prediction of critical transitions, J. Stat. Phys., 111, 3–4, 839–861, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556, Russia

    P. Shebalin, V. Keilis-Borok & I. Zaliapin

  2. Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1567, USA

    V. Keilis-Borok & I. Zaliapin

  3. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1567, USA

    V. Keilis-Borok

  4. Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University, 3-20-1 Orido, Shimizu City, Shizuoka, 424, Japan

    S. Uyeda & T. Nagao

  5. State Research Institute of Aviation Systems, Russian Federation State Research Center, 7, Victorenko st., Moscow, 125319, Russia

    N. Tsybin

Authors
  1. P. Shebalin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. V. Keilis-Borok
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. I. Zaliapin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. S. Uyeda
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. T. Nagao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. N. Tsybin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to P. Shebalin.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Shebalin, P., Keilis-Borok, V., Zaliapin, I. et al. Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history. Earth Planet Sp 56, 715–724 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353080

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353080

Key words