干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 11-21.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-01-0011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPEI的近百年天津地区气象干旱时空演变特征

王敏1(), 尹义星2(), 陈晓旸3, 郭阳1, 徐梅1, 罗传军1   

  1. 1.天津市气象信息中心,天津 300074
    2.南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏 南京 210044
    3.广东省韶关市气象局,广东 韶关 512000
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-27 修回日期:2021-10-21 出版日期:2022-02-28 发布日期:2022-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 尹义星
  • 作者简介:王敏(1992— ),女,河北乐亭人,硕士,主要从事数据评估及灾害性天气研究. E-mail: wmin820@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507704);国家自然基金(41671022);国家自然基金(41575063);国家自然基金(41905132);天津市气象局科研项目共同资助(202119ybxm07)

Changing characteristics of meteorological drought in Tianjin for almost one century based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index

WANG Min1(), YIN Yixing2(), CHEN Xiaoyang3, GUO Yang1, XU Mei1, LUO Chuanjun1   

  1. 1. Tianjin Meteorological Information Center, Tianjin 300074, China
    2. School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    3. Shaoguan Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province, Shaoguan 512000,Guangdong, China
  • Received:2021-08-27 Revised:2021-10-21 Online:2022-02-28 Published:2022-02-28
  • Contact: YIN Yixing

摘要:

基于1921—2016年天津地区降水、气温观测数据,对全球降水气候中心降水(GPCC-P)、东英吉利大学气候研究中心气温(CRU-T)进行适用性评估后发现GPCC-P和CRU-T均能较好地反映天津地区降水和气温的变化。在此基础上,进一步利用GPCC-P、CRU-T计算的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)分析天津地区近百年干旱时空演变特征并判断其未来变化趋势。结果表明:(1)天津干旱主要发生于1940年代初期、1990年代末和2000年代初期,四季均以轻旱和中旱为主,干旱高频季节由秋、冬季逐渐转为春、夏季。(2)天津全区SPEI气候趋势在6个时期除秋季整体呈 “升、降、升”分布特征外,春、夏、冬季均表现为 “升、降”的分布特征,且夏季下降趋势最为显著,1961—2010年宁河每10 a下降0.30。(3)1921—1970、1931—1980、1941—1990年天津春、冬季湿润化趋势由降水主导,而夏、秋季则由气温和降水协同影响; 1951—2000、1961—2010、1971—2016年春季干旱趋势主要受气温影响,夏、冬季则为气温和降水协同影响,随着全球变暖,气温升高对干旱的影响逐渐增强。(4)1921—2016年天津地区四季SPEI与PDO呈负相关关系,春、夏季相关性从西北向东南递减,而秋、冬季相关性则由东南向西北递减。(5)未来夏季天津全区、冬季天津西南部呈干旱化趋势,春季干旱化趋势、秋季湿润化趋势不明显。

关键词: SPEI, GPCC, CRU, 干旱, 长期演变, R/S分析

Abstract:

Based on observation data of temperature and precipitation in Tianjin region during 1921-2016, the precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC-P) and the temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU-T) were evaluated and it was found that they performed well. On the basis of these results, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was further used to analyze the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of drought for almost a century in Tianjin region and its change trend in the future was estimated. The results are as follows: (1) Drought mainly occurred in the early 1940s, late 1990s and early 2000s, and it was dominated by mild drought and moderate drought in four seasons, and its high frequency season evolved from autumn, winter to spring and summer. (2) During six periods, climate tendency of SPEI showed “increasing and decreasing” in other seasons, but it showed “increasing, decreasing and increasing” in autumn, moreover the decreasing tendency in summer was most significant with a climate tendency of -0.3 per decade at Ninghe station during 1961-2010. (3) During 1921-1970, 1931-1980, 1941-1990, it was found that precipitation was dominating factor for the wet tendency in spring and winter, while temperature and precipitation were factors in summer and autumn; during 1951-2000, 1961-2010, 1971-2016, drought tendency in spring was affected mainly by temperature, in summer and winter it was synergistically affected by temperature and precipitation. (4) There was a negative correlation between SPEI and PDO in four seasons during 1921-2016 in Tianjin region, the correlation in spring and summer decreased from northwest to southeast, while that decreased from southeast to northwest in autumn and winter. (5) In the future, it will present drought trendency in summer in the whole region and in winter in the southwestern region, while drought trendency in spring and wet trendency in autumn will not significant.

Key words: SPEI, GPCC, CRU, drought, long-term change, R/S analysis

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