Determinants and Potential of Trade Using the Gravity Model Approach: Empirical Evidence of Egyptian Rice Crop

Te aim of this study is to examine the determinants of Egyptian trade in general and Egyptian rice trade in particular with 11 rice-importing partner countries (Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Jordan, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Belgium, and Romania). To reach the main goals of the study, the gravity model was used to fgure out which factors had the most impact on Egypt’s exports and imports. Using annual data on Egypt’s foreign and agricultural trade during the period 2001–2020 and data on the period 2001–2016 of rice crops with the 11 trading partners, the study reached several important conclusions. Among these conclusions, the Egyptian GDP variable had a negative efect on the total value of Egyptian imports and agriculture by increasing the value of total exports, agricultural exports, and rice exports to Egypt. Egyptian imports, exports, and population growth were all hurt by the Egyptian population variable. Te study also shows that a 1% increase in export prices leads to a 3.97% increase in shipments of Egyptian rice to partner countries. According to economic theory, higher transportation expenses reduce trade volumes for both exports and imports. Te variable distance between capitals has a negative efect on Egyptian exports. Te study was designed based on the results of the main investigation. Based on the main investigation, the study made several important recommendations, including the need to take several measures to defect the pace of economic growth of both the Egyptian total and agricultural export variables and rice export value, focusing on countries with high monetary and real GDP and a close geographical distribution. Improve economic relations between Egypt and its trading partners and shift from import-export cooperation to strategic food security cooperation.


Introduction
Te agricultural sector is an important part of the Egyptian economy. It makes a big contribution to the country's GDP and gives jobs to a lot of people [1]. In 2020, the agricultural sector's share in Egypt's GDP was 11.3%, employing around 28% of the labor force.
Egypt has a wide range of agricultural products, such as cereals, vegetables, fruits, livestock, and more. Te country's location between the Mediterranean Sea and the Nile River makes it an ideal place to grow crops. Te country's location between the Mediterranean Sea and the Nile River makes it an ideal place to grow crops. Also, the country exports a lot of agricultural goods. In 2020, agricultural exports will make up about 17% of the country's total exports, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
Also, Egypt's agricultural sector is a key part of making sure the country's people always have food to eat. According to Abdel-Malek and El-Din [2], the sector provides over 90% of the country's food needs, making it a vital pillar of the national economy.
In recent years, the Egyptian government has put in place a number of policies to help the agricultural sector. Tese include improving infrastructure, giving farmers money, and promoting modern farming techniques. Te goal of these eforts is to boost the sector's productivity, make it more competitive, and support long-term growth.
In conclusion, the agricultural sector is a very important part of Egypt's economy. It creates jobs, adds to the GDP, makes sure there is enough food, and promotes sustainable growth. Egypt is a key player in the global agricultural market because of its diverse range of products, strategic location, and government policies that help the sector.
Te gravity model is a widely used empirical tool in economics to analyze bilateral trade fows between countries. Tis model suggests that trade between two countries is proportional to the product of their gross domestic product (GDP) and inversely proportional to the distance between them [3]. In the case of Egypt, the gravity model can be applied to analyze the determinants and potential of agricultural trade, particularly in the rice crop sector.
El-Khishin and Rizk [4] say that the size of Egypt's GDP is the frst thing that afects agricultural trade fows. Tis is because the GDP shows how much money Egyptians have and how much they want to buy imported goods, like rice. Te larger the GDP, the higher the demand for rice and other agricultural products, which can lead to increased trade fows.
Te second determinant of agricultural trade in Egypt is the size of its population, which also afects the demand for food products like rice [1]. More people means more demand for rice, which can lead to even more trade in agricultural goods.
Te export price of Egyptian rice is the third factor that afects agricultural trade fows in Egypt. Tis price is afected by global supply and demand [5]. Higher export prices can encourage rice producers and exporters to make and send out more rice, which can lead to more trade.
Finally, the distance between Egypt and its trading partners is another important factor that afects agricultural trade fows. Te farther two countries are from each other, the higher the transportation costs and other barriers to trade, which can lower the volume of trade [6].
Exports boost sustainable economic growth rates by providing secure and reliable supplies of foreign cash that relieve pressure on the balance of payments and help job creation [7,8]. Giving cash for investment broadens the manufacturing base, minimizes reliance on foreign aid, and ofers specialists [9]. Several studies, including those by [10], Balassa [11][12][13], and Edward [14], have demonstrated that increased overseas commerce has a considerable positive efect on economic development. In contrast, Ahmad and Kwan [15] discovered in their study that there is sometimes no positive correlation between international trade and economic progress.
Rice is an important crop in Egypt because it is the only cereal that can be grown there and exported in excess. In 2017, Egypt's rice self-sufciency rate was 94.2% [5]. In the same year, the average rice intake per capita climbed by 11.5%, reaching 38.7 kg compared to 34.7 kg in 2016. In addition, it is a possible source of foreign exchange revenues that might assist sustainable fnancial development [16].
Rice, the third largest producer in the world and the second most important food for the Egyptian population, is the essential food for more than half of the world's population. China, India, Tailand, and Indonesia, which are among the biggest producers and consumers of rice [17], are the main places where rice is grown and eaten. And in some African nations, such as the Arab Republic of Egypt, the bulk of production is accounted for.
On the agricultural side, rice is regarded as one of the most important crops in Egypt. In the governorates of lower Egypt, rice is by far the most important crop. It provides farmers with an acceptable return compared to other crops, particularly after implementing economic reform policies and canceling compulsory supplies. From a consumer's perspective, rice is one of the essential dietary ingredients for most of Egypt's population, as it is a rich source of carbohydrates, and its consumption has climbed from 3,858,000 tons in 2000 to 4,889,000 tons in 2020 [18].
From 2001 to 2020, Egyptian rice exports will account for approximately 0.90% of overall Egyptian exports and 9.15% of the value of Egyptian agricultural exports (FAOSTAT). Recent government decisions to cut back on farmland and ban exports have made it harder for countries to compete on international markets. So, it is important to look into the possibility of raising the value of rice exports by looking at how Egypt sells rice in diferent foreign markets [19].

The Motivation and Significance of the Study
Te motivation for this study is based on the signifcance of foreign trade to the Egyptian economy, particularly with regards to rice exports to 11 partner countries. Understanding the determinants of trade can assist policymakers and government ofcials in making informed decisions to enhance the foreign trade sector's performance and promote economic growth. Te study's signifcance lies in its use of the gravity model approach to identify the most infuential factors on Egypt's exports and imports, including GDP, population, export prices, transportation costs, and distance between capitals. Te study provides valuable insights for policymakers to enhance economic relations between Egypt and its trading partners and shift toward strategic food security cooperation. In addition, the study contributes to the existing literature on international trade and provides useful insights for researchers interested in studying the determinants of trade.
Te study on the determinants of Egyptian trade in general and Egyptian rice trade in particular with 11 riceimporting partner countries is signifcant for several reasons. Firstly, foreign commerce is a crucial component of Egypt's economy, and the fndings of this study can assist policymakers and government ofcials in taking appropriate measures to enhance the foreign trade sector's performance. Secondly, the study's use of the gravity model approach and the analysis of annual data over a 20-year period provide valuable insights into the factors that infuence trade fows, such as GDP, population, export prices, transportation costs, and distance between capitals. Tirdly, the study's identifcation of the most infuential factors on Egypt's exports and imports can assist policymakers in developing efective trade policies and strategies to increase trade fows, diversify exports, and promote strategic food security cooperation. Finally, the study's recommendations on taking measures to defect the pace of economic growth of both the Egyptian total and agricultural export variables and rice export value, focusing on countries with high monetary and real GDP and a close geographical distribution, could improve economic relations between Egypt and its trading partners and shift towards strategic food security cooperation.

Literature Review
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In this part of the study, the "gravity model" method was used to investigate international trade between Egypt and other countries from 2010 to 2022. Te aim was to identify the major factors that could afect international trade fows. Over the past 20 years, Egypt's economy, government, and society have undergone signifcant changes at the local, regional, and international levels. Among the most important are the completion of the gradual liberalization of agricultural product prices, agricultural production requirements, and exchange rates; the liberalization of agricultural land markets; the elimination of subsidies to the agricultural sector; and the end of cooperative marketing. To ensure that there was enough water for irrigation, the government also tried to limit the growth of rice felds by establishing rules for cotton felds and imposing fnes when they were not followed. In summer, a feld requires about 6,000 cubic meters of irrigation water, while less than 4,000 cubic meters are needed to grow corn.
Shehata [21] said that the main focus of the economic efects of trade between Egypt and COMESA was on Egypt's main agricultural exports and that the gravity model was used. Tey concluded that the most infuential factors on Egyptian exports are the exchange rate, the distance between Cairo and the capitals of COMESA countries, and the imports of rival countries into COMESA markets. Fayyad [22] discussed how to increase trade exchange between Egypt and Arab countries and identifed the primary factors afecting the increase of trade exchange between Egypt and these countries, as well as the principal Arab countries that expand or restrict the volume of trade exchange with Egypt. In addition, they forecast the volume of trade exchange between Egypt and the vital Arab nations with which it engages. Te gravity model demonstrated that a rise in real GDP in Egypt and other Arab countries leads to increased Egyptian exports to these nations.
On the other hand, exports from Egypt to Arab countries drop as the distance between them grows. Te demand for imports of Egyptian products also decreases when the real per capita income of people in Arab countries increases. It was found that Syria and other Arab countries are cutting Egypt's exports because demand for Egyptian exports has gone up. It was found that Egypt's imports went up because of Saudi Arabia and Libya, but Egypt's imports from other Arab countries went down as their per capita income went up.
Tis is one article which explains how the role of the trade policy review mechanism and its review should be improved with the aim of covering the main areas of international trade governance, such as coordinating preferential trade agreements, as well as the convergence of measures dealing with greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental policies, which are two main issues in the way of the World Trade Organization in international trade, which can play the role of the general coordinator and the main supervisor of the countries they belong to, to confront and combat fnancial crises and protective trends that usually follow economic difculties [23].
In a study by Greene [24], the gravity model method for international trade was utilized to determine the efect of India's market access policy on US exports of hightechnology items. From 1990 to 2011, estimates were based on panel data and the fxed efects model for US exports to 5 manufacturing sectors and 76 trading partners. Te volume of high-technology product exports is determined by average capital income, free trade, India's level of economic development, shared culture, commerce with trading partners, and membership in a common free trade area. Transportation costs and international distance (transactions) are vital and negative factors of US hightechnology exports. Inhibiting US exports are high tarifs and various problems refected in India's low rankings on numerous global indices. Tese include the size of the market, the presence of trade barriers, the free trade index, and the overall economic competitiveness index.
Te main objectives of Attala's [25] studies were to examine and determine the primary elements infuencing the agricultural trade between Egypt and COMESA nations. According to the gravity model of Egyptian agricultural export results, the factors infuencing the impact of Egyptian agricultural exports to COMESA nations have been determined. Changes in average Egyptian GDP per capita, average GDP per capita of partner countries, and nominal shared border variables directly impact exports from Egypt to partner nations. Te gravity model results for Egyptian agricultural imports from COMESA countries indicate that when Egyptian GDP rose by approximately 1%, Egyptian agricultural imports from COMESA countries rose by 56.15%. Roughly 1% rise in these nations' average GDP per capita will result in a 75.2% increase in Egyptian agricultural imports from these nations.

Complexity 3
In [26], for the period 2004-2013, the gravity model was utilized in this study. According to this study's hypothesis, the three most infuential determinants of rice exports from Vietnam are gross domestic product (GDP), population size, and exchange rate. Te study aimed to determine the most signifcant elements infuencing Egypt's foreign commerce with COMESA nations. Tere is a favorable correlation between Egypt's GDP and COMESA countries, as a 1% increase in these variables results in exports of 2.18% and 0.97%, respectively. Te study suggests enhancing the fow of trade between Egypt and COMESA nations and examining domestic markets.
In [27], the authors aimed to identify the main factors that afect Cambodian rice exports by applying the dynamic gravity approach. Using panel data from 1995 to 2016 and selecting 40 import partners, the results showed that historical relations, exchange rate policy, and agricultural land reform enhance rice exports. Terefore, the study recommends focusing on expanding exports to commercial partners, especially the European Union, China, and Asian countries. As a macroeconomic issue, the economic recession that hinders export fows requires more special attention.
Nag and Chakraborty [28] focused in their book on the process of identifying export markets and products, which involves determining the potential markets and products that a business can export as well as assessing their viability and suitability for exportation. It ofers a structured application of key concepts and methods in trade analytics. India's Trade Analytics introduces the reader to various technical approaches to the analysis of international trade fows, market identifcation, and competitiveness measurement procedures. It is intended as a practical guide for management graduates, researchers, corporate executives, and policymakers. To provide a more comprehensive analysis, we utilized crucial methodologies such as ex-post and ex-ante analyses and partial and general equilibrium models. We also conducted an in-depth interpretation of the derived output, including a competitiveness analysis and an examination of the impact of tarif reform. By employing these critical methodologies, we were able to enhance the validity and reliability of our research and arrive at meaningful conclusions based on empirical evidence. A discussion of the nontarif barriers (NTBs) explains the role of trade facilitation measures and trade costs in international business.
In " [29]," the gravity model was used to look at how changes in the exchange rate afect exports. Te empirical fndings demonstrated that exchange rate changes impact both local and international commerce in COMESA countries [30]. Te research suggests that policymakers in COMESA nations should not disregard exchange rate volatility when formulating trade policies and strategies. Guan and Sheong [31] analyzed intra-China-Africa trade using the gravity model and showed that GDP had a negative efect on African exports to China. It had a good impact on Chinese exports to Africa. Te prevailing exchange rate negatively impacted African exports to China and imports from China. Te population variable infuenced African exports to China and imports from China. Te study suggests enhancing the structure of African exports to China and fortifying trade agreements. Te gravity model was utilized in the study by Ibrahim et al. [32], which intended to estimate the relative signifcance of Egypt's trade with the BRICS nations in main vegetable and fruit crops and their determinants. Te study's most notable fndings were as follows: there is a statistically positive and moral infuence of the variable distance between Egypt and the BRICS nations on the quantity of Egyptian agricultural exports and imports.
A study by Chaisse and Chakraborty [33] explore the tarifs and emergency policies of two main countries (the United States and the European Union) and developing countries (China and India) to measure the readiness of each country for future reforms. Te perspective related to the manufacture of competitiveness varies greatly between these countries, which also constitutes their manufacturing policy interventions. Tis article concludes that, given the commercial and industrial policy options that these countries have taken in the recent past, it will be difcult to reach a multilateral trade agreement caused by the World Trade Organization on nonagricultural market access (NAMA).
Abdel et al. [34] created a gravity model to analyze Egyptian exports of dried onions. Te combined regression model (CRM) revealed that exports of onions to the Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Belgium, and Indonesia grew by 1% for every 1% growth in Egypt's gross domestic product. Te exports of Egyptian tomatoes decreased by 28.1 tons for every kilogram added. With a $1 billion rise in the GDP of importing countries, Egyptian tomato exports climbed by 47.0 tons with a 1-kilometer increase, exports declined by 76 tons and by 24.1 and 39.1%, respectively, for languages with similar sounds. In the study conducted by Eshetu and Goshu [35], the authors aimed to determine the factors that afect the export of Ethiopian cofee to 31 commercial partner countries using the dynamic gravity model and generalized moment method (GMM) of estimation. Te results of the analysis showed that the openness of trade, the population in Ethiopia, foreign direct investment, and the institutional quality of Ethiopia have a positive and signifcant efect on the export volume of Ethiopian cofee. On the other hand, variables such as the population of partner countries, geographical distance, export volume in the previous year, and real exchange rate have a negative and signifcant efect on the export volume of Ethiopian cofee. Te study recommended diversifying exports to ensure a reliable foreign currency source, controlling corruption, increasing government events, and ensuring the strengthening of political stability for foreign direct investment. In addition, the study suggests encouraging trade liberalization to increase the volume of Ethiopian cofee exports.

Complexity
In the study by Abdullahi et al. [36], they considered experimental visions of the determinants and capabilities of food exports in Nigeria to 70 major commercial countries between 1995 and 2019 through the application of stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) for the gravity model. Tey also estimated a set of technologies, including the OLS method, pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood (PPML), and Heckman models, to confrm the statistical signifcance of the results. Te results indicated that the economic size (GDP) of Nigeria and its commercial countries, the membership of imported countries, European Union membership, and communication stimulate the export of agricultural food. Te geographical distance between countries, local population, exchange rate, language, and fres all negatively afect agricultural food exports. Te study recommended the need for attention to agricultural food with most major global economies (including China, the United States of America, Brazil, India, Russia, Japan, and European countries) and Nigerian border countries and the provision of policy trends to expand the export of agricultural food.
Abdullahi et al. [37] looked at the main things that afect the fow of cocoa exports from Nigeria and came up with a gravity model for the commodity with three diferent ways to analyze it. Te results showed that GDP, exchange rate policy, European Union membership, and colonial links are positively related to the export of Nigerian cocoa. Moreover, it was observed that there is a negative impact of individual GDP, geographical distance between countries, and African Union membership on Nigerian cocoa export fows. Te study recommended the necessity of expanding exports to commercial partners, especially members of the European Union (the Netherlands, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Spain), Canada, Malaysia, and the United States of America. Tese results are important for formulating future commercial policies that can enhance Nigerian cocoa exports. Tis will eventually contribute to the diversifcation of Nigerian exports and enhance the profts of foreign countries. "Qadous [38]" aims to establish the parameters of Egyptian tomato exports and measure the impact of global changes in language, distance, GDP, and average per capita on the principal markets for Egyptian tomato importers: Saudi Arabia, Libya, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and Bahrain. Predict Egyptian tomato exports for 2016-2020 utilizing the gravity model for international trade. A 1-kilometer increase in distance decreased Egyptian tomato exports by 42.1 tons, and a 1-billion-dollar increase in the gross domestic product of importing countries decreased exports by 56.0 tons. If Egypt's GDP increases by $1 billion, tomato exports will rise by 67.0 tons, and if importing and exporting nations speak the same language, exports will rise even more.
In [39], the gravity model was used to assess the performance of Egyptian agricultural exports to Arab countries. Tis study indicates that trade agreements, exchange rates, and distance between Egypt and other nations negatively impact Egyptian exports of dairy goods and vegetables. Te study also reveals that Egypt's GDP directly impacts these products' availability on Arab market places. Te research also recommends periodic reviews of bilateral agreements between nations, improving Egyptian exports by incorporating exports of essential agricultural items, and labeling standards for Arab agriculture.
Abdullahi et al. [40] aimed to study the determinants and efciency of agricultural exports in China to 114 imported countries from 2000 to 2019 using the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) on the gravity model and fxed efect models to confrm the results. Te study found that the economic size of China (GDP), imported countries, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), joint borders, and the Chinese language all positively afected China's agricultural export fows. However, agricultural exports in China were negatively impacted by low per capita GDP in China and its commercial partners, a weak currency, and geographical distance. Te study recommended that policymakers pay special attention to exchange rate policy. Te study suggests that agricultural exports have a signifcant impact on the Belt and Road Initiative, and China should continue to build strong relationships with current members and develop policies that attract nonmember states.
Te general conclusion to previous studies demonstrates the following fndings: the analyzed studies support the use of the gravity model to study factors afecting trade between countries, including GDP, exchange rates, distance, language, historical ties, and trade agreements. Some fndings, such as the efect of per capita income on agricultural exports and trade barriers on high-tech exports, contradict economic theory. Most studies suggest diversifying exports and expanding trade to improve trade fows and profts. Exchange rate policy is identifed as critical, and the Belt and Road Initiative is seen as a signifcant opportunity for China to increase agricultural exports and build strong ties with other countries. Policymakers are advised to encourage trade liberalization, control corruption, improve government events, and enhance political stability for foreign direct investment. Some studies in Egypt and Arab countries lack statistical analysis, neglect optimal economic models, and fail to account for distance between markets. Te study examined factors afecting the value of Egyptian exports, agricultural imports, and rice exports during the study.

Research Problem
Tis is even though the importance of trade exchange between Egypt and countries with high economic power (the high-economic countries) has been emphasized, along with the signifcance of Egypt's partner countries and the signifcance of expanding trade exchange between Egypt and these countries. Compared to Egypt's commerce with signifcant economic blocs or other nations, exports to and from these nations are modest. Te issue with this topic is that Egypt's trade volume with its trading partners changes substantially. Tis demonstrates how little foreign trade contributes to support sustainable development in all aspects and how difcult it is to obtain the foreign exchange required to advance the narrative. Despite the prominence of Egypt's rice exports among other important Complexity agricultural exports, the country's foreign trade is hampered by factors such as the fuctuation and unpredictability of the annual quantities exported (the average Egyptian quantity of rice exports during the period 2001-2020 was 448.26 thousand tons). In addition, major exporting nations reported intense rivalry in Egyptian rice markets. Rice requires a signifcant amount of water (between 6,000 and 7,000 cubic meters per year), which is one of the most critical issues in the producing region. Consequently, the issue with analyzing Egyptian rice is that it is no longer exported and therefore contributes less to Egypt's agricultural sector, overall exports, and gross domestic product. Not to mention that Egypt must import more food to meet local demand, which costs the government a great deal of money and further strains the public budget. Te Egyptian government decided to cut the rice harvest from 1.2 million feddan in 2017 to 724 thousand feddan in 2018. Tis meant that the country could only make 2.8 million tons of stewed rice, which meant that the government had to import about 600,000 tons of white rice. Tis costs the state a great deal of money. Terefore, in 2019, the government expanded rice farming to 8.1 million feddan, which increased supply but decreased farmer incomes.

Research Objectives
Te study aims to examine the parameters of Egypt's trade exchange with its trading partners during two distinct periods, namely 2001-2020 and 2001-2016. To achieve this primary objective, we have formulated the following subobjectives: to analyze the current status and evolution of the value of Egypt's total agricultural and rice exports during the same period under the study, to examine the main factors which have infuenced the value of Egypt's total trade with other countries during the same period, to investigate the key factors which have infuenced the value of Egypt's agricultural exports during the same period, to identify the most critical factors which have afected the volume of Egyptian rice exports in the same period, and to formulate several recommendations aimed at increasing the contribution of the Egyptian agricultural sector, total foreign trade, and the Egyptian rice harvest to fnance the economic development of the country.

Methodology
Te research relied on the methodology of descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis. Te most important analysis was the use of the general temporal equations and the gravity model and the publication of secondary data in electronic forms, such as the FAO website (FAOSTAT), the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), the Agricultural Statistics Bulletin, and the United Nations Trade Database.

Analytical Method.
To meet the research aims, the gravity model was used for the total export and import data and agricultural value for 2001-2020 and the volume of Egyptian rice exports for 2001-2016. Te gravity model estimates the elements that are infuencing Egypt's international trade [21]. It is used to determine which factors are most signifcant.

Description of the Gravity Model.
Initially, the gravity model was founded on Newton's physics theory, which states that the attraction between two objects is proportional to their mass and inversely proportional to their squared distance. On the other hand, applying the gravity model to international trade seeks to describe bilateral trade fows and their shapes as biological bodies that attract one another is proportional to economic size (GDP) and reverse the geographical distance between the capitals of the trading partners. To accomplish the research aims, the gravity model was used for the total export and import data, agricultural value, and Egyptian rice exports for 2001-2020. Te gravity model estimates the elements that are infuencing Egypt's international trade [21]. It is utilized to determine the most signifcant components (Egger [41]).
Te global market's total exportable supply (which represents potential exports) and the potential aggregate import demand for a given nation are crucial factors that impact the degree of trade concentration. Additionally, various factors that generate trade can also infuence this concentration. Newton discovered the "Law of Universal Gravitation" in 1687, also known as the "General Gravitation Law," which states that "the force of gravity (f )" between two objects (blocks) is directly proportional to the product of their masses (M1 and M2) and inversely proportional to the square of the distance D 2 between their centers: where G is the constant of general gravitation.
Tinbergen [42], a Dutch scientist, applied Newton's general law of gravitation to the feld of economics in 1962, for which he received the Nobel Prize in 1969, and Tinbergen established the following available form of the law of gravitation: where YIJ is the commercial fow from country I to country J. GDP refers to the gross domestic product of the two countries (GDP and GDP, respectively). Dij is the distance between I and J.
Equation (2) is a form of Newton's law and can be formulated in the following mathematical form: 6 Complexity Equation (4) has exponential regression coefcients and can be turned into a linear function by taking the natural logarithm of both sides. Tis makes it a double logarithmic function: where ε IJ = is the random error limit for regression equation (4). Te double logarithmic model is preferred because the estimated model's parameters (b1, b2, and b3) show how fexible trade fows are on average about changes in quantitative variables that show the size and distance of economies between countries.
Since Lenman added the populations of both countries to the estimated model in equation (5) in 1966, it is now called the basic gravity model (BGM). It is used in economics, especially in foreign trade and trade exchanges between countries. It is called the "modifed gravity model" (AGM) and has several forms, which are as follows: Log Yij � ß 0 + ß 1 Log GDPi + ß 2 Log GDPj where Yij � total trade (in millions of pounds). GDPE � the exporting country's (Egypt) GDP by one million dollars. GDPI � GDP of the importing country in million dollars. PopE � the population of the country of origin (by million). Popj � total population of the importing country. distij � geographical distance between the capitals of the two countries.
Te general gravity model was applied to total trade, agricultural trade, and the volume of Egyptian rice exports between Egypt and trading partner countries that imported Egyptian rice from 2001-2016.
Te gravity model used in the study and the main explanatory variables are as follows: Te theoretical foundation of the model and previous applied studies were used to fgure out the variables that explain the value of exports, total and agricultural imports, and the amount of Egyptian rice exports. After trying a few diferent ways to estimate to make sure that some important variables were taken into account, a model formula was found that gives results that make sense from an economic, statistical, and normative point of view. Te target model for the value of exports and imports can be described with the following logarithmic formula: where (Q ij ) is the total exports and total imports, agricultural exports, and agricultural imports of study countries in a million dollar. GDP i is the gross domestic product of Egypt in one million dollar. GDP j is the gross domestic product of importing countries (one million dollar). POP i is Egypt's population in millions. POP j is importing countries' population (in million). DIS ij is the geographical distance between Egypt and importing countries (in kilometers). E ij is error limits. i is exporters. j is importers.   Table 1 shows that, on average, from 2001 to 2020, the value of Egypt's agricultural exports made up 13.90% of the total value of Egypt's exports. Figure 2 shows that the value of agricultural exports went from a low of US $602 million in 2001 to a high of US $5451 million in 2019. In addition, the value of agricultural exports in Egypt has experienced substantial growth in recent years, reaching about US $281 million, representing 8.8% of the average period of about US $3193 million [43] (FAOSTAT, 2020). Table 1 show that the value of Egyptian rice exports took a general downward trend during the study period, with an annual decline of about $14.0 million at a maximum of   Tis decrease in the quantity of rice exported from Egypt can be attributed to the decrease in rice production as a result of the government's decisions to reduce the rice area and ban its exports, rationalizing the use of water resources in Egypt and meeting the demand for domestic consumption (see Figure 4).

Gravity Model Estimation Results
Te study used a regression model to fgure out what factors afected Egypt's total exports and imports of agricultural goods from 2001 to 2020. Te paper will also study this efect on the amount of Egyptian rice exported during the study period (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016). Te analysis used a method called "time-series cross-sectional analysis," which combines data from diferent points in time with data from diferent places in time. Te research was based on a method called "time series cross section," which is the combination of data from a time series and data from a cross section. Tis method is popular in economic studies because it takes into account both the efects of time and the efects of the diference between cross-sectional data [45]. Countries represent the cross-sectional data dimension, and the period represents the temporal dimension when referring to panel data.

Gravity Model Results for Total Egyptian Exports.
According to Table 2's results of the gravity model analysis of Egypt's total exports, Egypt's real GDP has a statistically signifcant direct relationship with intangibles at the 1% level. Tis is in line with the statistical logic of the theory. A 1% increase in Egypt's real GDP would result in a 1.36% increase in total exports [46,47]. Even though this variable's direct relationship is not very strong, the real GDP diference between partner countries has proven to be a good way to make decisions. It has fostered expansion into the markets of these countries. An increase of 0.12% occurs when the GDP of these nations increases by 1% [48].
Te change in Egypt's population is also linked to a negative, statistically signifcant, and logically sound relationship: a 1% increase in Egypt's population leads to a 2.76% drop in the total volume of Egyptian exports [49].
About 1% of the distance between Egypt and its trading partners grew, which made Egypt's exports to these countries worth about 0.174% less. Te shorter length reduces the total logistical costs of Egyptian exports [50,51].
At the 1% level, the model's overall morality was confrmed because its value was F-93.5%. Te modifed identifcation factor reached 61%, which means that the variables in the model explained 61% of the change in the total amount of exports from Egypt from 2001 to 2020. Te time component accounted for 39% of the model's factors. Table 3 shows the results of the gravity model, which shows that Egypt's imports from its 11 trading partners fell as its real GDP rose. Te real GDP coefcient is signifcant. Hence, the calculated inverse connection with a value of −1.436 indicates that a 1% increase in Egypt's real GDP leads imports from these countries to decrease by 1.44% for every 1% increase in Egypt's real GDP. Tis is because Egypt's real GDP per capita would decline, resulting in a decline in consumption, demand, and imports. Tis result is consistent with the premise of the gravity model, which states that as the economy grows, so will the volume of international trade [46]. Te importance of imports from these nations is inversely related to the importing nation's gross domestic product [52].

Results of the Gravity Model for the Total Egyptian Imports.
Te Egyptian population variable was statistically connected with an inverse and signifcant connection at a confdence level of 1%. Tis demonstrates that as the Egyptian population expands, the per capita GDP declines, reducing the desire for consumption. Te 1% change in the Egyptian population transforms into a 3.36% decline in total Egyptian imports [52][53][54].
As shown in Table 3, the results of the gravity model analysis revealed that the independent variables included in the model accounted for 72% changes in the overall volume of Egyptian imports during the study period, while the remaining 28% were attributable to independent variables omitted from the statistical analysis and time reference.

Results of the Gravity Model for Egyptian Agricultural
Exports. Table 4 shows the results of the analysis of Egypt's agricultural exports based on the gravity model from 2001 to 2020. Tese results indicate that several factors can explain Egyptian agricultural exports. Egypt's real GDP was the most signifcant of these factors, as this variable's statistical signifcance was 1% and the parameter signal was consistent with logic. Te 1% increase in Egypt's GDP results in a 1.88% increase in agricultural exports [55]. As for the relation between the variable geographical distance between Egypt and each of the countries, it has been demonstrated that Egypt's agricultural exports to these countries harm Egypt's relationship with each country. Tis is rational from an economic standpoint. However, the statistical signifcance of this variable was not confrmed, which suggests that increasing the geographical distance between Egypt and these countries by approximately 1% reduces Egyptian agricultural exports [56]. Table 4 presents the results of the gravity model analysis for Egyptian agricultural exports. Te GDP of Egypt and the eleven partner countries with the model, their populations, and the geographical distance between Egypt and the partner group of countries account for approximately 81% of the fuctuations in Egyptian agricultural exports to these countries. Te F-test statistically validated the model, which was estimated at 94.879.

Gravity Model Results for Egyptian Agricultural Imports
Using the logic of economic theory, Table 5's analysis shows a statistically signifcant inverse relationship at the 1% moral level between Egyptian GDP and Egyptian agricultural imports from these countries. Tis means that a 1% increase in Egyptian GDP leads to a 4% decrease in Egyptian farm imports from these countries. Te frst of these measures is the country's frst of its kind. Tere is a statistically signifcant relationship between the change in the Egyptian population and the volume of Egyptian agricultural imports. A 1% increase in the Egyptian population results in a 16.7% increase in Egyptian agricultural imports. Tis is consistent with economic theory's logic [32]. Te study in Table 5, which indicates the results of the estimation of the gravity model of agricultural imports, showed that the real GDP of Egypt and the eleven partner countries in the model, the population of both countries, and the geographical distance between Egypt and each of those countries explain about 85% of the changes in imports. Egypt is one of those countries. Te model has been statistically positive at 1%, according to the F-test estimate of 76.769.  Using the theoretical model and previous applied research, the factors that explain the amount of Egyptian rice that is exported were found. After many attempts to make sure that certain explanatory variables were not left out, a model formula was found that makes sense from an economic, statistical, and normative point of view. Te following is a formulation of this model: where QIJ is the amount of rice exports to the study countries per thousand tons. GDP i is Egypt's gross domestic product (in million dollars). GDP j is the gross domestic product of importing countries (in million dollars). POP i is Egypt's population (in millions). POP j is the population of importing countries (in millions). Prod i is Egypt's rice production per thousand tons. Price i is export price (USD/ton). DIS ij is the geographical distance between Egypt and the importing countries (in kilometers). E ij is error limits. i is the exporting country (Egypt). j is the importing country. Te top eleven countries selected were Saudi Arabia, Syria, Sudan, Lebanon, Jordan, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Libya, Romania, and Turkey; with Egypt's total rice exports to these countries accounted for 89.4% of Egypt's total exports to the world from 2001-2016. Te results show that the positive and statistically confrmed relationship at the 1% moral level indicates that a 1% increase in Egypt's real GDP leads to a 1.98% increase in the quantity of Egypt's rice exports [26]. But the analysis showed that the direct relationship between the variable of Egyptian rice production at 1% was moral. It makes sense from an economic point of view, since a 1% increase in production leads to a 1.39% increase in Egyptian rice exports. Te variable of Egyptian rice export price was also linked to a statistically specifc direct relationship at the 1% moral level. Tis is in line with economic theory, which says that when rice export prices go up, farmers are more likely to grow more crops so they can make more money from exporting Egyptian rice. A 1% increase in export price leads to a 3.97% increase in Egyptian rice exports to partner countries [26].  Te results of the analysis in Table 6 using the gravity model to measure the total impact of the 11 countries studied on the volume of Egyptian rice exports show that the total variables included in the model explain about 27% of the changes in the volume of Egyptian rice exports to these countries. Te remaining diferences in export volume are due to other factors not measured by the model. Te moral of the underlying model is 1% below F, which corresponds to 9.78.
Te results of this study add to what is already known about international trade between Egypt and other countries. Using the gravity model method, the study examines the determinants of Egyptian rice exports to 11 selected countries from 2001-2016. Te results confrm the importance of real GDP and domestic production surplus in increasing Egypt's rice exports, consistent with previous studies that highlight the signifcance of GDP and exchange rates in afecting trade between countries [22,25]. Te study also identifes the export price of Egyptian rice as an important factor afecting trade, in line with the economic logic that higher export prices encourage farmers to expand cultivation and beneft from exporting [26].
Previous research [21,24,27] has shown how important GDP, exchange rates, and distance are to international trade [21,24,27]. Tere are some diferences though in the specifc factors which are seen as important in trade. For example, Shehata [21] identifed imports of rival countries as a signifcant factor afecting Egyptian exports, which were not included in the current study. In addition, the current study focuses specifcally on the determinants of rice exports from Egypt to selected countries, while other studies analyze trade in diferent products or between diferent countries.
Te current study's fndings have important implications for policymakers. Te study suggests that promoting economic growth and increasing domestic production surplus can encourage exports, consistent with previous research [22,25]. In addition, maintaining competitive export prices can encourage farmers to expand cultivation, which can lead to increased exports [26]. Tese fndings are in line with recommendations from previous studies that emphasize the importance of diversifying exports, expanding trade, encouraging trade liberalization, and controlling corruption [32,37].
In conclusion, the current study's fndings add to the literature on international trade and highlight the importance of GDP, exchange rates, and export prices in afecting trade between countries. Te study's results have important implications for policymakers and suggest that promoting economic growth, increasing domestic production surpluses, and maintaining competitive export prices can encourage exports. Further research could build on these fndings by examining the determinants of trade in other products or between diferent countries.
As for the proposal to refne and revise the role of the Trade Policy Review Mechanism in maintaining the WTO's supremacy in the international trade order, one possible way  is to enhance its efectiveness in identifying and addressing nontarif barriers to trade, such as regulatory measures, standards, and technical barriers. Tis could be achieved by strengthening the analytical tools and methodologies used in the review process and by providing more targeted and specifc recommendations for policy reform. By doing so, the WTO can continue to promote free and fair trade and remain relevant in the changing global economic landscape.
Te results of the empirical study on the determinants and potential of trade in Egyptian rice using the gravity model approach suggest that promoting economic growth, increasing domestic production surpluses, and maintaining competitive export prices can encourage exports. Tese fndings are in line with recommendations from previous studies that emphasize the importance of diversifying exports, expanding trade, encouraging trade liberalization, and controlling corruption. However, the rising trend of protectionism among some WTO members poses a challenge to the multilateral trading system. Protectionist policies such as tarifs, quotas, and subsidies can distort trade fows and lead to market inefciencies. Te WTO plays a vital role in promoting free and fair trade by enforcing its rules and regulations and by providing a platform for members to negotiate and resolve trade disputes. To maintain its supremacy in the international trade order, the WTO needs to adapt to the changing global economic landscape and address emerging issues such as digital trade and environmental sustainability. One proposal to refne and revise the role of the Trade Policy Review Mechanism is to enhance its efectiveness in identifying and addressing nontarif barriers to trade, such as regulatory measures, standards, and technical barriers. Tis can be achieved by strengthening the analytical tools and methodologies used in the review process and by providing more targeted and specifc recommendations for policy reform. In this way, the WTO can continue to promote free and fair trade and maintain its relevance in the changing global economic landscape. Overall, the results of this study add to the literature on international trade and highlight the importance of GDP, exchange rates, and export prices in afecting trade between countries. Te study's fndings have important implications for policymakers and suggest that promoting economic growth, increasing domestic production surpluses, and maintaining competitive export prices can encourage exports. Further research could build on these fndings by examining the determinants of trade in other products or between diferent countries.

Conclusions and Policy Recommendation
Foreign commerce is an integral part of Egypt's economy. Terefore, it is essential to understand the primary economic factors that can infuence Egyptian exports (gross rice) for the government and policymakers to take the appropriate measures to enhance the performance of the foreign trade sector.
Te primary purpose of this study was to determine the primary factors infuencing Egypt's exports of the three species mentioned above. Te analytical procedure includes the gravity model as one of the best theoretical frameworks for estimating export equations using panel data for 2001-2020 for export and total import and agricultural value, and 2001-2016 for the quantity of Egyptian rice exports.
During the time series of the experimental analysis, eleven countries were chosen based on the distribution of Egyptian rice exports; these eleven nations accounted for 89.4% of Egyptian rice exports during the study period. Te evaluation of the gravity model revealed that the variable of Egyptian GDP harmed the value of total Egyptian imports, as a 1% increase in real Egyptian GDP led to a 1.44% decline in the fow of these imports. Tis result is compatible with economic reasoning and demonstrates that the real GDP of the trading partner has a negligible direct efect. Consistent with economic theory, a 1% increase in the population of Egypt and its trading partners decreased the value of Egyptian imports by 3.36 and 0.016%, respectively [52,54]. If the combined GDP of Egypt and its trading partners increased by 1%, Egyptian exports would grow by 1.36% and 1.28% each.
In [47,48], the change in Egypt's population was also associated with the opposite statistically signifcant relationship and was consistent with the logic of the economic theory. Te 1% increase in Egypt's real GDP resulted in a 1.88% rise in agricultural exports.
In [55], a 1% increase in Egypt's real GDP will result in a 4% decrease in Egypt's agricultural imports from those countries, according to the logic of the economic theory. A 1% increase in Egypt's population led to a 16.7% rise in agricultural imports. Tis was consistent with economic theory's logic. Te 1% increase in Egypt's real GDP led to a 1.1998% increase in rice exported from Egypt. Te direct relationship of the change in Egyptian rice production was validated, which is consistent with economic logic, which states that by increasing production, a surplus of domestic consumption would be transferred to exportation for every 1% increase in output. In accordance with economic logic, which states that with an increase in the rice export price, farmers are encouraged to increase their cultivation to proft from exporting Egyptian rice; it has been statistically demonstrated that the export price of rice has a positive direct relationship. Te 1% increase in export price increased Egyptian rice exports to partner nations by 3.97%.
It can be argued that policies had limited impact due to the crucial role of rice as a strategic staple in the Egyptian diet that cannot be substituted. Moreover, rice cultivation is capable of achieving self-sufciency and surplus for export, which incentivizes farmers to cultivate more and sometimes exceed the designated areas assigned by the government in pursuit of greater fnancial gains.
Based on the study's main fndings, there are a few things that can be done to improve Egypt's foreign trade and its economic relationships with its trading partners; to slow down the rate of economic growth for both Egypt's total exports and agricultural exports, as well as the value of rice exports, the government and policymakers should focus on countries with high real and monetary GDP that are close to Egypt; to switch from import-export to strategic food security cooperation, the Egyptian government should set up strategic partnerships with rice-importing partner countries to ensure a steady supply of rice and improve food security; to increase the value of Egyptian imports and agricultural exports, the government should put a high priority on measures that increase the production and quality of agricultural products; to address the negative efect of transportation costs on trade volumes, the government should invest in transportation infrastructure and improve trade logistics; to make Egyptian rice more competitive on the world market, the government should help farmers and give them the tools and technology they need to boost production and improve quality; and to put these suggestions into action, the government should set up policies and programs that help and encourage the agricultural sector and give infrastructure, logistics, and technology the most money. Te government should also set up strategic partnerships and cooperation agreements with the countries that import rice to improve economic relations and make sure there is enough food for everyone. Also, the government should do more research to fnd out what other things might afect Egyptian trade and come up with plans to deal with them [57][58][59].

The Study Contribution
Te contribution of this study is its valuable insights into the determinants of Egyptian trade, particularly rice exports to 11 partner countries through the use of the gravity model approach and analysis of annual data over 20 years. It identifes crucial factors infuencing trade fows, including GDP, population, export prices, transportation costs, and distance between capitals, providing policymakers with recommendations to enhance economic relations and promote strategic food security cooperation. Te study adds to the existing literature on international trade, ofering useful insights for policymakers and researchers seeking to understand the determinants of trade. In addition, the study employs a robust and unbiased estimator, the gravity model, contributing to the logical analysis of the determinants of rice export from Egypt.

Te Motivation and Signifcance of the Study.
Te motivation for this study is based on the signifcance of foreign trade to the Egyptian economy, particularly with regards to rice exports to 11 partner countries. Understanding the determinants of trade can assist policymakers and government ofcials in making informed decisions to enhance the foreign trade sector's performance and promote economic growth. Te study's signifcance lies in its use of the gravity model approach to identify the most infuential factors on Egypt's exports and imports, including GDP, population, export prices, transportation costs, and distance between capitals. Te study provides valuable insights for policymakers to enhance economic relations between Egypt and its trading partners and shift toward strategic food security cooperation. In addition, the study contributes to the existing literature on international trade and provides useful insights for researchers interested in studying the determinants of trade.
Te study on the determinants of Egyptian trade in general and Egyptian rice trade in particular with 11 riceimporting partner countries is signifcant for several reasons. Firstly, foreign commerce is a crucial component of Egypt's economy, and the fndings of this study can assist policymakers and government ofcials in taking appropriate measures to enhance the foreign trade sector's performance. Secondly, the study's use of the gravity model approach and the analysis of annual data over a 20-year period provide valuable insights into the factors that infuence trade fows, such as GDP, population, export prices, transportation costs, and distance between capitals. Tirdly, the study's identifcation of the most infuential factors on Egypt's exports and imports can assist policymakers in developing efective trade policies and strategies to increase trade fows, diversify exports, and promote strategic food security cooperation. Finally, the study's recommendations on taking measures to defect the pace of economic growth of both the Egyptian total and agricultural export variables and rice export value, focusing on countries with high monetary and real GDP and a close geographical distribution, could improve economic relations between Egypt and its trading partners and shift towards strategic food security cooperation.

The Policy Implications
Te policy implications of this study are as follows: Policymakers and government ofcials should work on improving the foreign trade sector by learning about the main economic factors that afect Egyptian exports, especially rice exports, to its trading partners. Te results of this study suggest that policymakers should focus on promoting economic growth, diversifying exports, and promoting strategic food security cooperation by taking several steps to slow the rate of economic growth of both the Egyptian total and agricultural export variables and rice export value, focusing on countries with high monetary and real GDP and a close geographical distribution. Policymakers should consider the negative impact of Egyptian GDP and population growth on total Egyptian imports and exports, and population growth. Moreover, policymakers should consider the positive impact of a 1% increase in export prices on shipments of Egyptian rice to partner countries and the negative impact of higher transportation costs and the distance between capitals on Egyptian exports. To improve economic relations between Egypt and its trading partners and move from import-export to strategic food security cooperation, policymakers should think about the suggestions made in this study. For example, they should focus on countries with high monetary and real GDP and close geographic locations and take steps to improve the performance of the foreign trade sector.

The Study Limitations
Te study only focuses on 11 specifc rice-importing partner countries and their trade relations with Egypt, which may not be representative of all of Egypt's trade relationships. Te study only looks at Egyptian trade from 2001 to 2020, so it may not include the most recent changes. Te gravity model approach used in this study does not take into account all of the details and complexities of international trade. Te study does not take into account the potential impact of nontarif barriers on Egyptian trade, such as technical regulations or sanitary and phytosanitary measures. Te study only looks at the factors that afect Egyptian trade. It does not look at how global economic trends or political events might afect Egyptian trade relations. Te study does not look at how currency changes might afect trade between Egypt and its partners. Te study does not look at how market saturation or competition from other rice-exporting countries might afect Egyptian rice trade. Both of these things could happen. Tese limitations should be considered when interpreting the results of the study and suggesting avenues for future research to address them.

Data Availability
Te data used to support the fndings of this study are available within the manuscript.

Conflicts of Interest
Te authors declare that they have no conficts of interest.