Abstract
The stage hypothesis on the assimilation of computing technology provides one of the most popular models for describing and managing the growth of administrative information systems. Despite little formal evidence of its reliability or robustness, it has achieved a high level of acceptance among practitioners. We describe and summarize the findings of seven empirical studies conducted during the past six years that tested various hypotheses derived from this model. The accumulation of evidence from these studies casts considerable doubt on the validity of the stage hypothesis as an explanatory structure for the growth of computing in organizations.
- 1 Benbasat, I., Dexter, A.S. and Mantha, R.W. Impact of organizational maturity on information system skill needs. M1S Quarterly 4, 1 1980, 21-34.Google Scholar
- 2 Churchill, N.C., Kempster, J.H. and Uretsky, M. Computer Based Information Systems for Management: A Survey, National Association of Accountants, New York, 1969.Google Scholar
- 3 Gouger, J.D. Reducing reliance on 'wise old men' philosophies. Cornput. Newsier XV, 6 (Feb. 1982) 1.Google Scholar
- 4 Dickson, G., Senn, J. and Chervany, N. Research in MIS: The Minnesota experiments. Manage. Sci. 23, 9 (May 1977), 913-923.Google ScholarDigital Library
- 5 Drury, D.H. A survey of data processing chargeback practices. INFOR 18, 4 (Nov. 1980), 342-353.Google Scholar
- 6 Drury, D.H. An empirical assessment of the stages of data processing growth. MIS Quarterly 7, 2 (June 1983), 59-70.Google ScholarDigital Library
- 7 Drury, D.H. A survey and evaluation of data processing steering committees. Submitted for publication, 1983.Google Scholar
- 8 Drury, D.H. and Bates, J.E. Data Processing Chargeback Systems: Theory and Practice, Society of Management Accountants of Canada, Hamilton, Ontario, 1979.Google Scholar
- 9 Ein-Dor P. and Segev, E. Information systems: Emergence of a new organizational function. Inf. Manage. 5, 4-5, (Sept.-Nov. 1982), 279- 286.Google ScholarCross Ref
- 10 Gibson, C.F. and Nolan, R.L. Behavioral and organizational issues in the stages of managing the computer resource. In Managing the Data Resource Function, Nolan, R.L., Ed. West Publishing Company, St. Paul, MN, 1974, 63-86.Google Scholar
- 11 Gibson, C.F. and Nolan, R.L. Managing the four stages of EDP growth. Harvard Business Review (January-February 1974), 76-88.Google Scholar
- 12 Goldstein, R.C. and McCririck, I. The stage hypothesis and data administration: Some contradictory evidence. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Information Systems. Boston, MA, December 1981, 309-324.Google Scholar
- 13 Greiner, L.E. Evolution and revolution as organizations grow. Harvard Business Review (July-August 1972), 37--46.Google Scholar
- 14 Henry, R.M., Dickson, G.W., and LaSalle, J. Human resources for MIS: A report of research. Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference of The Society for Management Information Systems, Chicago, IL (September 1973), 21-34.Google Scholar
- 15 Kuznets, S. Economic Growth and Structure: Selected Essays, W.W. Norton and Co., New York, 1965, pp. 213-216.Google Scholar
- 16 Lucas, H.C. Jr. and Sutton, J.A. The stage hypothesis and the S- curve: Some contradictory evidence Commun. ACM, 20, 4 (April 1977), 254-259. Google ScholarDigital Library
- 17 McCririck, I.B. A survey of the data administration function of large Canadian organizations. Unpublished Master's thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia, Canada, June 1979.Google Scholar
- 18 McKinsey and Company, Inc., Unlocking the Computer's Profit Potential (pamphlet), New York, 1968.Google Scholar
- 19 Miller, D. and Mintzberg, H. The case for configuration. In Beyond Method: Strategies for Social Research, Morgan, G. Ed. Sage Publications, 1983, 57-73.Google Scholar
- 20 Nolan, R.L. Managing the computer resource: A stage hypothesis. Commun. ACM, 16, 7 (July 1973), 399-405. Google ScholarDigital Library
- 21 Nolan, R.L. Plight of the EDP manager. Harvard Business Review 51, 3 (May-June 1973), 143-152.Google Scholar
- 22 Nolan, R.L. Thoughts about the fifth stage. DATABASE, 7, 2 (1975), 4-10. Google ScholarDigital Library
- 23 Nolan R.L. Controlling the cost of data services. Harvard Business Review (July-August 1977), 114-124.Google Scholar
- 24 Nolan, R.L. Management Accounting and Control of Data Processing, New York, National Association of Accountants, 1977.Google Scholar
- 25 Nolan, R.L. Organizational response and information technology. AFIPS National Computer Conference Proceedings, Anaheim, California, June 1978, Volume 47, 517-524.Google Scholar
- 26 Nolan, R.L. Managing the crises in data processing. Harvard Business Review (March-April 1979), 115-126.Google Scholar
- 27 Nolan, R.L. Managing the advanced stages: Key research issue. Seventy-Fifth Anniversary Colloquium Series, Division of Research, Harvard Business School, July 10-13, 1983.Google Scholar
Index Terms
- A critque of the stage hypothesis: theory and empirical evidence
Recommendations
Managing the computer resource: a stage hypothesis
Based on the study of expenditures for data processing, a descriptive stage hypothesis is presented. It is suggested that the planning, organizing, and controlling activities associated with managing the computer resource will change in character over a ...
The stage hypothesis and the s-curve: some contradictory evidence
This paper presents the results of a study testing the s-shaped budget curve of Nolan's stage model of computer development in an organization. Research on the data processing budgets of California counties fails to support the s-shaped curve or the use ...
Comments