Alexis Bellot
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Abstract
Using electronic medical records to learn personalized risk trajectories poses significant challenges because often very few samples are available in a patient’s history, and, when available, their information content is highly diverse. In this article, we consider how to integrate sparsely sampled longitudinal data, missing measurements informative of the underlying health status, and static information to estimate (dynamically, as new information becomes available) personalized survival distributions. We achieve this by developing a nonparametric probabilistic model that generates survival trajectories, and corresponding uncertainty estimates, from an ensemble of Bayesian trees in which time is incorporated explicitly to learn variable interactions over time, without needing to specify the longitudinal process beforehand. As such, the changing influence on survival of variables over time is inferred from the data directly, which we analyze with post-processing statistics derived from our model.
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Index Terms
- Flexible Modelling of Longitudinal Medical Data: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach
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