Abstract
A method has been developed for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact on the Earth. The method is based on the detection of impact orbit tubes in the initial confidence region, taking into account the nonlinearity in the problem of orbit determination. The method consists in sequential iteration of level surfaces of the minimized function and conditionally minimizing the distance from the asteroid to the Earth on them in some considered approach of the asteroid to the Earth. An approximate method has been developed for calculating the confidence level at any point in the initial region with a noticeable nonlinearity in the orbit determination problem. The impact risk is estimated by applying this method to the identified tube of impact orbits. The method has been tested for a number of potentially dangerous asteroids in their expected approaches to Earth.
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The work was carried out within the framework of the state task of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (subject no. FSWM-2020-0049). The work was carried out using the equipment of the Terskol Observatory, Center for Collective Use (observations of asteroid 2020 PR3).
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Baturin, A.P. Estimating the Asteroid’s Impact Risk under Significant Nonlinearity in the Orbit Determination Problem. Sol Syst Res 57, 388–398 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0038094623030012
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0038094623030012