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Self-Organization at the Break in the Trajectory of Socioeconomic Development: Challenges for Russia

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Abstract—

In the development of the world economy, global integration and disintegration cycles alternate. Growth of the world economy can be considered as a regime with aggravation in analogy with population growth in the theory of S.P. Kapitsa. Accordingly, this growth is subject to internal laws, not external restrictions. Kapitsa formulated this position as the principle of the demographic imperative. A slowdown in both population growth and economic growth in the coming years is inevitable. Both a pessimistic scenario in the spirit of “limits to growth” and a transition from extensive to intensive development in the spirit of the ideas of disgraced Soviet philosopher M.K. Petrov are possible. Today, first, we can observe a rapid intensification in production processes both in industry and agriculture, as well as in the sphere of intangible production. Second, intangible consumption is increasingly replacing material. The third prerequisite for maintaining the progressive development of society in the face of a significant slowdown in GDP growth is a turning point in the trend toward the degradation of educational and intellectual levels.

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Notes

  1. Cited from Ortega y Gasset, J., Missiya universiteta (Mission of the University), Moscow: Vyssh. Shk. Ekon., 2010, p. 111.

  2. In a self-organizing system (according to H. Haken), the fundamental role is played by the ordering parameters, which determine the behavior of the system components via the principle of subordination.

  3. Cited from Kapitsa, S.P., Obshchaya teoriya rosta chelovechestva. Skol’ko lyudei zhilo, zhivet i budet zhit’ na Zemle (General Theory of Humanity Growth. How Many People Lived, Lives and Will Live on Earth), Moscow: Nauka, 1999, p. 157.

  4. Cited from Gellner, E., Razum i kul’tura. Istoricheskaya rol’ ra-tsional’nosti i ratsionalizma (Reason and Culture. The Historic Role of Rationality and Rationalism), Moscow: Moskovskaya shkola politicheskikh issledovanii, 2003, p. 192.

  5. Cited from Gellner, E., Razum i kul’tura. Istoricheskaya rol’ ra-tsional’nosti i ratsionalizma (Reason and Culture. The Historic Role of Rationality and Rationalism), Moscow: Moskovskaya shkola politicheskikh issledovanii, 2003, p. 212

  6. http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2015/05/26/593773- nizkaya-proizvoditelnost-truda-stanovitsya-globalnoi-problemoi. Accessed July 24, 2018; https://www.vedomosti.ru/ economics/articles/2018/07/23/776200-rostu-proizvoditelnosti. Accessed July 24, 2018.

  7. Cited from Gellner, E., Razum i kul’tura. Istoricheskaya rol’ ra-tsional’nosti i ratsionalizma (Reason and Culture. The Historic Role of Rationality and Rationalism), Moscow: Moskovskaya shkola politicheskikh issledovanii, 2003, p. 236.

  8. Studies of the cyclical nature of integration processes were begun at the end of the 1970s at the Institute of Geography of the USSR Academy of Sciences by B.N. Zimin (1929–1995) and were continued by L.M. Sintserov [13, 14].

  9. For France, the Belle Époque was the heyday of the Third Republic (in 1879, the Marseillaise became the national anthem; in 1880, July 14 became a national holiday).

  10. Cited from Zweig, S., Vcherashnii mir. Vospominaniya evropeitsa (The World of Yesterday: Memoirs of a European), Moscow: Vagrius, 2004, p. 325–326.

  11. https://en.valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/dve-voyny-zapada/. Accessed July 15, 2018.

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Funding

The article was prepared as part of the state-ordered research theme of the Institute of Geography RAS, no. 0148-2019-0008 (“Problems and Prospects of the Russia’s Territorial Development in Terms of Its Unevenness and Global Instability”).

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  1. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    V. A. Shuper

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Shuper, V.A. Self-Organization at the Break in the Trajectory of Socioeconomic Development: Challenges for Russia. Reg. Res. Russ. 10, 344–351 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970520030120

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