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Imperatives of Adaptation to Climate Changes in the Development of Agricultural Policy in Russia

  • ECONOMY AND CLIMATE
  • Published:
Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract—

The article discusses the methodological and methodical problems of assessing the impact of climate change on the development of domestic agriculture, as well as the challenges and imperatives of adapting the country’s agro-food complex to the consequences of these changes. It also describes how to correctly take into account the results of modeling the influence of the climatic factor on the dynamics and structure of agricultural production is described; recommendations are presented for improving the agro-food policy, taking into account a set of adaptation measures.

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Notes

  1. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation as of December 17, 2009, No. 861-rp On the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/902190830.

  2. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation as of January 21, 2020, No. 20 On Approval of the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/-564161398.

  3. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation as of April 12, 2020, No. 993-r On Approval of the Strategy for the Development of the Agro-Industrial and Fisheries Complexes of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/564654448.

  4. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation as of August 10, 2019, No. 1796-r On Approval of the Long-Term Strategy for the Development of the Grain Complex of the Russian Federation until 2035. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/560974985.

  5. Federal Law of the Russian Federation as of July 2, 2021, No. 296-FL On Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions // Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation, 2021. No. 27. Art. 5124.

  6. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation as of October 29, 2021, No. 3052-r On the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. https://docs.cntd.ru/-document/726639341.

  7. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation as of July 14, 2012 No. 717 On the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and the Regulation of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Food Markets (with amendments as of April 19, 2022). https://docs.cntd.ru/document/902361843.

  8. See: https://mcx.gov.ru/upload/iblock/953/953ee7405fb0ebba38a6031a13ec0021.pdf.

  9. In particular, estimates of the decrease in the average potential yield of grain crops in Russia in the perspective of 2030–2050 vary from –15% to +5%.

  10. Some of these problems are described in detail in the study of M.Yu. Ksenofontov [19], so we will limit ourselves to listing them in this article.

  11. It should be noted that the base period is strongly distant from the forecast period in most works, since updating complex agro-climatic models and forecasts based on them is a laborious task. For example, in [13] the base period was the period 1961–1990, in [7] it was the period 1990–1999, in [14] it was 2005. At the same time, this is unlikely to significantly affect the quality of forecasting estimates due to inertia and ultra-long-term horizons of climate forecasts.

  12. It is important to remember that technological shifts in domestic crop production in retrospect were not only and not so much climate-related, but related to factors of high impact of foreign market conditions and budget support in the field of technical and technological modernization and agricultural lending.

  13. Note that a number of studies—see [14–16, 18]—take into account the impact of structural and technological shifts in agriculture in a changing climate.

  14. Since most of CH4 emissions from agriculture come from enteric fermentation processes in ruminants.

  15. Since N2O emissions in agriculture are largely determined by the use of nitrogen fertilizers.

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Funding

The study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Science Foundation within the framework of project No. 22-28-01075 “Scientific Foundations of Planning and the Concept of the Strategy for Adapting the Russian Economy to Climate Change.”

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  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    D. A. Polzikov

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Correspondence to D. A. Polzikov.

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Translated by L. Solovyova

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Polzikov, D.A. Imperatives of Adaptation to Climate Changes in the Development of Agricultural Policy in Russia. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 33, 680–686 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700722060107

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