Russia’s energy systems: Opportunities and prospects

Abstract

The paper considers macroeconomic forecasts of the performance of Russia’s Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) up to 2030–2040 based on projections of economic development (worked out at the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences), predictive assessments of the economic aspects of the production of major fuel types, Russia’s involvement in meeting the world’s demand for oil and gas, and the progress in the development of new energy sources. It is demonstrated that, according to the expected demand for energy carriers and the proposed changes in the FEC structure and technological base, carbon dioxide emissions by FEC facilities in the considered term will not exceed the 1990 level recorded in the Kyoto Protocol. It is shown that the annual volume of investment in the energy industry by 2030 should be at least double the level of the 2000–2010 requirements and by 2040 it is expected to increase by another 15–20%.