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Resilience of Russian Regions to Economic Shocks

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Abstract—

In article the issues of resilience of regions to crisis shocks and methods of their assessment are considered. Indicators of GRP dynamics during the crisis period were used as a resilience criterion. A grouping of regions depending on the response to the economic crisis is presented, regions resistant to the crises of 2009 and 2015 are identified. To assess the contribution to the regional dynamics of the consequences of national, structural and regional shocks, the method of structural shifts was used. It is shown that the regional component is a significant factor determining the resilience of the region. The contribution of regional factors to resilience was quantified on the basis of regression analysis.

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Notes

  1. Hereinafter, the crisis is named in accordance with the year in which the minimum values of the indicators characterizing the crisis were noted for the crisis period. Despite the fact that the decline in production in some regions began in 2008, 2009 is cited as a crisis year, when national indicators became negative. Similarly, during the 2014–2015 crisis, the decline in production occurred only in 2015, which is used to indicate the crisis.

  2. The essence of the method consists in decomposing the incremental regional indicator into three components: ∆ = NS + MS + RS, national component (NS), industry structure component (MS), and regional component (RS). The peculiarities of using the method of structural shifts for assessing the contribution of national and regional factors to economic growth, see [5, 6].

  3. A synthetic typology of regions was proposed in [12].

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  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418, Moscow, Russia

    N. N. Mikheeva

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Correspondence to N. N. Mikheeva.

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Mikheeva, N.N. Resilience of Russian Regions to Economic Shocks. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 32, 68–77 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S107570072101010X

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